At the midway point of the season, we’re seeing with more clarity where offenses are heading and how injuries have depleted defenses — both of which come into play when matching up against an opponent that can exploit those weaknesses.
Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook‘s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 9 player prop bets to cash in on among SportsbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
This week, we look at more production than the lack of it.
We have 1 quarterback whose number seems too high for his opponent and a couple of running backs and receivers that have Over/Under numbers that seem too low given their circumstances.
Also see: All Week 9 odds and lines
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NFL week 9 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at Saturday at 8:38 a.m. ET.
Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon OVER 68.5 rushing yards (-115)
– Host Panthers, Sunday 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Bengals have gotten away from Mixon this season — partly because he’s only averaging 3.3 yards a carry and partly because he’s only had 8 carries in 2 of the last 3 games.
That said, these are the Panthers and they’ve been hit hard on the ground all season. They’re 0-3 on the road and have been getting lit up in the process.
If the Bengals get off to an early lead, Mixon should get nearly 20 carries. That she be enough to vault him past this total.
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Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler OVER 51.5 receiving yards (-115)
– At Falcons, Sunday 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
The Chargers are going to be without WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. QB Justin Herbert has played plenty of games without one of them, but not many without both.
The Chargers are going to have to adapt on the fly and Herbert’s Over/Under for passing yards is still 283.5. If he’s going to approach that, it’s going to take a lot of Ekeler to get there.
Ekeler may catch 10 passes in this game out of necessity. Even if he doesn’t, he only needs to break one splash play to surpass this number.
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Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford UNDER 250.5 passing yards (-115)
– At Buccaneers, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Buccaneers defense has only allowed 2 QBs to throw for 250 yards all season — Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers.
With the expected return of RB Cam Akers, the Rams aren’t going to be throwing every down like they have tried to do (or been forced to do) recently.
There is a decent likelihood WR Cooper Kupp gets Stafford almost halfway home to this number by himself, but can the others pick up the slack in what has the smell of an elimination game for two preseason Super Bowl favorites from the NFC? I don’t think so.
Arizona Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins OVER 84.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Seahawks, Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Hopkins has been back just two games and has been targeted 27 times – catching 22 passes for 262 yards and a touchdown.
It became clear in his first game back that he is in Kyler Murray’s ear and claiming he’s open on every pass and, in an offense that is based on improvisation and quick reads, he’s getting the ball fed his way.
He has a high O/U, but Seattle has allowed 6 receivers to top 85 receiving yards and none of them are as good as D-Hop. He should be in line to be targeted more than 10 times. He doesn’t have come close to catching all of them to hit this number.
Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Chargers, Sunday 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Few players have been as hit-and-miss as Pitts who has 2 games with 80 or more receiving yards and 5 games with 25 or fewer.
His O/U number is low as a result, but the Falcons are going up against a banged-up Chargers team that will play up-tempo offense by design that will result in more snaps than a standard game.
Given his athleticism, the NFL’s most underutilized tight end talent may only need 3 catches to hit this number and QB Marcus Mariota can probably roll the dice right that many times on downfield seam passes.
More NFL Week 9 picks and predictions
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