As we reach the final 4 weeks of the season, every win and loss becomes more magnified, especially for those with playoff aspirations. Four of our 5 picks are from teams currently in the playoffs and the other is the 1st team out at the moment in the AFC.
This week we pick a running back with fresh legs hitting the end zone, a running back whose Over/Under seems way to low given his workload, an electrifying quarterback whose O/U is too high and a pair of wide receivers who will be forever linked because one was drafted with the pick obtained from the team that traded the other — the rare “win-win” trade.
Below, we break down Tipico Sportsbook‘s NFL odds and lines, and tab the best NFL Week 15 player prop bets to cash in on among SportsbookWire’s NFL expert picks and predictions.
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NFL week 15 prop bet picks and predictions
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 9:09 a.m. ET.
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson OVER 92.5 receiving yards (-125)
– Host Colts, Saturday 1 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
When Minnesota needs to win games, they lean heavily on Jefferson and are willing to throw up 50/50 balls because they have learned that those are 80/20 balls with JJ. He can’t be shadowed by a team’s best cornerback, because coach Kevin O’Connell moves him around the field throughout the game and cover corners don’t often play in the slot. It worked wonders with Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp when O’Connell was in L.A., and it works just as well or better for Jefferson.
Jefferson has topped this O/U 8 times in his last 10 games. Minnesota needs a win to lock down the NFC North title at home against an inferior team. That usually translates into a big game for Jefferson.
Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins scores a touchdown (+160)
– At Browns, Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
The Ravens made it clear last week against the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers that without QB Lamar Jackson, Dobbins and backfield mate RB Gus Edwards would be the focus of the run game.
Dobbins responded by rushing 15 times for 120 yards and a TD. With his speed, he could score as a rusher or a receiver in open space, making this a solid pick with a 60 percent above-the-line payback on investment.
Bills WR Stefon Diggs OVER 72.5 receiving yards (-115)
– Host Dolphins, Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET (NFL Network)
Given an earlier loss to Miami this season, this is a must-win game for Buffalo if it wants any chance to force the AFC title to come through upstate New York.
In situations like this, teams historically go with what works best for them. In Buffalo, that means getting the ball to Diggs early and often.
Diggs averages 95.3 yards a game and he caught 7 passes for 74 yards in the first meeting of the teams this season — low by his standards, but still surpassing this week’s number. Bad weather doesn’t impact Diggs’ numbers and he may need some volume of receptions to hit the Over, but he does that on a weekly basis.
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Bengals RB Joe Mixon OVER 55.5 rushing yards (-115)
– At Buccaneers, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Bengals are on a roll and heading away from the cold to play the struggling Buccaneers. When he has been healthy, Mixon has averaged more than 15 carries a game, which alone should be enough to top this number. However, in his last 3 games, he has rushing days of 153 and 96 yards.
The Bengals need to keep their foot on the gas pedal despite winning 9 of their last 11 games. They have the ability to control the clock against a Bucs defense that is on the field far too long thanks to its sputtering offense. The Bengals could easily run 30 times in this game and, if that happens, Mixon is almost certain to get more than half of those.
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Chargers QB Justin Herbert UNDER 302.5 passing yards (-115)
– Host Titans, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
I always get leery when opening lines are too high. At late-afternoon Friday, this number was at 311.5, indicative of bets coming in heavy on the Under.
The reason this O/U is so high is that Herbert has thrown for 700 yards in his last 2 games. The Titans have allowed huge passing games along the way too often this season, but need a win to get close to closing out the AFC South title.
In the past in this scenario, RB Derrick Henry has run the ball 30 times or more. Every time Henry carries the ball, 30-40 seconds come off the clock. This number is an indictment of the Titans’ defense but fails to take into account an endorsement of the Titans’ offense.
The Chargers are allowing 147 yards a game and 5.4 yards a carry to opposing running backs. If Henry just has an average day, he could approach those numbers on his own. That won’t leave Herbert a lot of plays to get to that lofty number.
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