Tag: nfl straight-up picks

Straight-up NFL picks, conference championships: Double underdogs? DOUBLE UNDERDOGS.

I said it’d be a Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl before the playoffs. I’m sticking with it … even if recent evidence suggests otherwise.

At the onset of the 2023 NFL playoffs, I threw the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers out as my Super Bowl 57 pick. They’re still alive, three weeks later, and I’m not about to abandon ship now.

Even though there’s plenty of evidence I should.

The Chiefs head into their fifth-straight AFC Championship Game with one thing they haven’t had in the previous four; a freshly injured Patrick Mahomes. Last week’s high ankle sprain threatens to limit his mobility against a Cincinnati Bengals pass rush that harassed Josh Allen all last week.

The 49ers’ dependence on rookie seventh-round pick Brock Purdy nearly became fatal in the Divisional Round. Dallas was able to pressure him into bad decisions in his first start without a touchdown pass this season — a problem that can be easily replicated by a Philadelphia Eagles defense that had 15 more sacks than any other team in the NFL this season.

Regardless, I’m sticking with my pre-playoff picks. I’m not the only one on our three-man panel who likes an underdog.

Game Christian Robert Charles
Bengals at Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Bengals
49ers at Eagles 49ers Eagles Eagles
Last week: 3-1 2-2 4-0
Year to date: 171-93-2 170-94-2 157-107-2

And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.

Straight-up NFL picks, Wild Card round: The Cowboys disrespect is very real

Or maybe we’re just not counting out Touchdown Tom. Also, is trusting the Jaguars gonna hurt us? Probably, right?

The opening round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs is upon us. And, like an estranged relative bringing Christmas gifts clearly bought at CVS on the drive over, it’s got lots to offer that looks good in theory but fails to deliver in application.

A divisional rivalry grudge match between the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills, where each side as one close win to its credit? Bad news, Tua Tagovailoa won’t be playing. A rubber match between the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens? Welp, Lamar Jackson is still hurt.

The game that offers the largest gulf between potential and production, however? Tom Brady vs. Mike McCarthy.

No, it’s not the Patriots-Packers Super Bowl we were promised throughout the 2010s. Instead it’s Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who won the NFC South more or less by default, vs. McCarthy’s Dallas Cowboys — a team equally capable of leaving opponents in a cloud of dust or tripping over its own feet to give inferior teams myriad opportunities to beat them.

Our three-man panel ran screaming from the unpredictability of the Cowboys and into the relative comfort of playoff Brady, who is likely playing his final home game as a Buccaneer. Monday night’s NFC matchup provides a wide range of potential outcomes. The only thing we’re moderately sure about is that it will get stupid at some point, McCarthy will trend for reasons he’d rather avoid and Brady will once again shame those who counted out Touchdown Tom.

Here’s who we’ve got for the opening round of the 2023 NFL playoffs.

Game Christian Robert Charles
Seahawks at 49ers 49ers 49ers 49ers
Chargers at Jaguars Jaguars Chargers Chargers
Dolphins at Bills Bills Bills Bills
Giants at Vikings Vikings Giants Vikings
Ravens at Bengals Bengals Bengals Bengals
Cowboys at Buccaneers Bucs Bucs Bucs
Last week: 13-3 13-3 12-4
Year to date: 164-90-2 164-90-2 150-104-2

And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.

Straight-up NFL picks, Week 16: Road winners and a de facto playoff game for the Jaguars and Jets

Jaguars-Jets on Thursday night is a de facto playoff eliminator. Eagles-Cowboys isn’t, but it’s gonna be fun — even without Jalen Hurts.

Week 16 of the NFL season will parse down a playoff field where only five teams — the Houston Texans, Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals — have been eliminated from the postseason. That means plenty of opportunities for needy teams in a slate filled with road underdogs.

That starts on Thursday night with a de facto playoff game between the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have rallied from 2-6 to make waves in the fecund water park kiddie pool that is the AFC South. The Jets, on the other hand, have slid in the opposite direction and now have to rely on Zach Wilson to reverse those fortunes. That’s a big ask — and it’s got our three-man panel split on the outcome of Week 16’s first game.

That’s one of only three games in which our experts didn’t see eye-to-eye. A do-or-die game between the ugly offenses of the New Orleans Saints and Cleveland Browns is a concern. So is a tragic showdown between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams that once looked like a possible Super Bowl preview but instead is a battle between two putrid teams who don’t even own their upcoming top five draft picks.

Here’s our full slate of picks for Week 16, with explanations below.

Game Christian Robert Charles
Jaguars at Jets Jets Jaguars Jaguars
Bills at Bears Bills Bills Bills
Falcons at Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Seahawks at Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
Giants at Vikings Vikings Vikings Vikings
Saints at Browns Browns Saints Browns
Bengals at Patriots Bengals Bengals Bengals
Texans at Titans Titans Titans Titans
Lions at Panthers Lions Lions Lions
Commanders at 49ers 49ers 49ers 49ers
Eagles at Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys Cowboys
Raiders at Steelers Steelers Raiders Raiders
Packers at Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins Dolphins
Broncos at Rams Broncos Broncos Rams
Buccaneers at Cardinals Bucs Bucs Bucs
Chargers at Colts Chargers Chargers Chargers
Last week: 11-5 11-5 12-4
Year to date: 141-81-2 140-82-2 127-95-2

And here are those selections in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.

Straight-Up NFL Picks, Week 11: A weekend of tempting underdogs gives us agita

Lots of interesting underdog picks this week. The Bears and Falcons stage a battle of untrustables. The Rams, uh, keeping doing Ram stuff.

Well, that was brutal.

Week 10’s slate of upsets handed For The Win’s expert pickers our worst week of prognostications yet. Only Robert Zeglinski was able to tread water with a non-losing record thanks to surprising victories from the Minnesota Vikings, Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders.

Week 11 brings the promise of more discombobulation. Can Jeff Saturday ride what’s sure to be a hero’s welcome back home in Indiana to a win over the Philadelphia Eagles as a full touchdown underdog? Will the Detroit Lions trip up another mobile quarterback by dashing Daniel Jones’ hopes of an 8-2 start?

This weekend’s games aren’t all stat line mismatches, however. The New York Jets and New England Patriots meet to see who will stay afloat in the ulta-competitive AFC East. The Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings will joust in a game that could decide the NFC’s top seed. The Los Angeles Chargers will try to avoid fading into oblivion when they host the Kansas City Chiefs.

Here’s Week 11’s full slate of games, along with our picks.

Game Christian Robert Charles
Titans at Packers Titans Titans Packers
Panthers at Ravens Ravens Ravens Ravens
Bears at Falcons Bears Bears Bears
Browns at Bills Bills Bills Bills
Lions at Giants Giants Giants Giants
Jets at Patriots Patriots Jets Patriots
Eagles at Colts Eagles Eagles Eagles
Rams at Saints Rams* Saints Saints
Commanders at Texans Texans Commanders Commanders
Raiders at Broncos Broncos Broncos Broncos
Cowboys at Vikings Vikings Cowboys Vikings
Chiefs at Chargers Chiefs Chiefs Chiefs
Bengals at Steelers Bengals Bengals Bengals
49ers at Cardinals 49ers 49ers 49ers
Last week: 6-8 7-7 4-10
Year to date: 93-56-1 89-60-1 80-69-1

The asterisk next to the Rams is to denote this pick is dependent on Matthew Stafford making the start in Week 11. And even then, I don’t feel great about it.

Here those pics are in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which unfortunately struggles to translate to our editing software.