What’s at stake for 49ers on Sunday night vs. Packers?

The 49ers’ Week 12 bout vs. the Packers is their biggest game of the year by far.

The 49ers’ showdown Sunday night against the Packers at Levi’s Stadium is the most important regular season game they’ve played in nearly a decade.

Week 10’s Monday night tilt with the Seahawks carried plenty of weight with the once dormant rivalry coming back to life and NFC West implications, but the results of the rest of the Week 10 slate diminished some of the do-or-die nature of the contest. San Francisco lost, but stayed on top of the NFC and the NFC West.

They don’t have that same luxury Sunday night. Here’s what’s a stake with a win and with a loss.

With a win …

San Francisco stays on top of the NFC and the NFC West if they knock off the Packers on Sunday. It also pushes Green Bay to two games behind the 49ers with five to play. A win ensures they go into Week 13 in first place in the conference and division, regardless of what happens with the teams around them.

It would also get them to 10 wins, which doesn’t necessarily guarantee a playoff spot, but it puts them in a great position to secure a playoff berth early in the season.

With a loss …

There’s a scenario where the 49ers lose and stay atop the NFC West. Seattle would have to lose to the Eagles in Philadelphia, which isn’t out of the realm of possibilities. However, that would still push San Francisco to the No. 2 seed and give Green Bay the head-to-head tiebreaker with the 49ers.

A bigger, more nightmarish scenario, is the one where the 49ers lose and Seattle wins. That makes whatever the Saints do irrelevant because the Seahawks would jump over the 49ers in the division thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker. That would move San Francisco to the No. 5 seed, which means they’d open the playoffs on Wild Card Weekend on the road. That’s a far cry from home field advantage throughout the playoffs and a first-round bye.

 

How Thursday Night Football changed the Texans’ and Colts’ playoff chances

The Texans took control of the AFC South with a pivotal win on Thursday night, but the Colts still have hope.

The Colts and Texans entered Thursday Night Football with matching 6-4 records, but Houston’s 3-point victory at NRG Stadium had a massive impact on each team’s projected playoff chances with five games left to play in the season.

The Texans beat the Colts 20-17 to take first place in the AFC South, and Houston is currently in line for the third seed in the AFC. The Colts fell to seventh in the conference with the loss, behind the 7-3 Bills and the 6-4 Raiders, the two teams that currently occupy the Wild Card positions.

We’ve been tracking each team’s playoff chances week-by-week, using the projections from three major playoff models (ESPN, Five Thirty Eight and Football Outsiders) to find an average playoff percentage. Here’s how the Week 12 result affected the Texans’ and Colts’ playoff hopes.

Colts’ playoff chance before Week 12: 58.4%

Colts’ playoff chance after Week 12: 37.7

Change: DOWN 20.7%

Texans’ playoff chance before Week 12: 69.2%

Texans’ playoff chance after Week 12: 87.2%

Change: UP 18%

You can see every NFL team’s current playoff chances by clicking below.

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Kyle Shanahan not worried about playoff seeding yet

The 49ers are more focused on making the playoffs than where they’ll play their playoff games.

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The 49ers enter Week 12 at the top of the NFC and in a position to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Every team would love to be in that position with six games to go, but 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan said he’s not focusing on seeding until his team has secured a postseason berth.

“You’d rather play every game at home, of course,” Shanahan told reporters Wednesday in a pre-practice press conference.  “On the road is always a disadvantage when you can’t hear. But I mean, I don’t even think about playoff seeding right now. Our goal is to get in the playoffs. We’re all right there, there’s still a lot of football left. Each game we win, we’ve got a better chance at getting in there. You don’t think about seeds, at least I don’t, until you can narrow it down to one or two games. I think we’re far from that right now.”

While San Francisco is tied for the best record in the NFL, they still have their work cut out for them to clinch a playoff spot.

The 49ers are 9-1, but the Packers, Saints and Seahawks are all just one game behind them. San Francisco is entering a stretch where they play the Packers, Ravens and Saints in consecutive weeks. Green Bay visits Levi’s Stadium, but the 49ers travel to Baltimore and New Orleans for those two contests.

Those teams are all 8-2 and can’t be overlooked. Especially since knocking off Green Bay and New Orleans would likely clinch a playoff spot for the 49ers.

Shanahan is optimistic about his team’s chances going into that stretch of games, but he’s still not focusing on their big-picture impact.

“The other time we went on back-to-back road games we won them so I don’t really think about that,” he said. “I just think about how many wins you need to get in the tournament and no one knows that answer yet and we’re not there. So you just keep going and doing that and once you get in the tournament, then you think about stuff like that. That’s why I think it’s way too early to be thinking that.”

That’s the right mindset to have, especially for a team with such a tough schedule to finish the year. After the next three games, the 49ers face the Falcons and Rams at home, and visit the Seahawks to close the season. Any looking ahead could lead to a fatal stumble that dooms the team’s chances to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013.

Getting a first-round bye and playing at home is a pretty big advantage for playoff teams. The last time a team made the Super Bowl without a first-round bye was the Ravens, who finished as the No. 4 seed in the 2012 season before taking down the 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII.

The good news for San Francisco is their schedule sets up in a way that allows them to simultaneously take steps toward a playoff spot and securing a first-round bye. That starts Sunday night against the No. 2-seed Packers at Levi’s Stadium.

NFC playoff picture: Panthers all but out of the race after Week 11 loss

Here’s an updated look at the NFC playoff picture after Week 11.

Technically the Panthers aren’t out of the playoff race, but realistically their loss to the Falcons on Sunday made reaching the postseason impossible in 2019.

Here’s an updated look at the NFC playoff picture after Week 11.

Playoff teams

1. San Francisco 49ers (9-1)
2. Green Bay Packers (8-2)
3. New Orleans Saints (8-2)
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-4)
5. Seattle Seahawks (8-2)
6. Minnesota Vikings (8-3)


Still in the race

7. Los Angeles Rams (6-4)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)
9. Carolina Panthers (5-5)

According to FiveThirtyEight’s playoff predictions, Carolina now has just a 4% chance of making it this year.

Ron Rivera will continue trying to win games as best he can, both to save his job and because that’s what NFL coaches do. It would be prudent of him to give the younger players on his roster more snaps, though.

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NFC playoff picture: Rams gain ground on Seahawks, remain behind Vikings

The Rams are still 1.5 games back in the wild-card race, trailing the Vikings and Seahawks.

The Rams got back on track Sunday night, beating the Chicago Bears 17-7at home. The win moved their record to 6-4 and kept their playoff hopes alive, though they still remain out of the postseason picture at the moment.

It was a much-needed win considering the Vikings beat the Broncos and improved to 8-3, while the Seahawks were off in Week 11. A loss would’ve put the Rams 2.5 games behind Minnesota for a wild-card spot, which would’ve been disastrous.

Here’s how the NFC playoff picture looks right now after 11 weeks.

  1. West: 49ers (9-1)
  2. North: Packers (8-2)
  3. South: Saints (8-2)
  4. East: Cowboys (6-4)
  5. Wild card: Seahawks (8-2)
  6. Wild card: Vikings (8-3)

In the hunt

Rams (6-4)
Eagles (5-5)
Panthers (5-5)

The Rams nearly got a lot of help on Sunday, in addition to picking up a half-game on the idle Seahawks.

The Broncos blew a 20-point lead against the Vikings, and the Cardinals were outscored 19-7 in the fourth quarter to lose 36-26 to the 49ers. Had the Broncos and Cardinals pulled off those upsets, it would’ve helped the Rams immensely in the NFC playoff race.

But, they took care of their own business, which is most important. It’s possible the Rams will need to win out to make the playoffs, though it’s unlikely that’ll be the requirement. The 49ers have a daunting schedule coming up against the Packers, Ravens and Saints in the next three weeks, while Minnesota has to face the Seahawks, Chargers and Packers before the season ends.

The Rams will need to finish at least 10-6 to have a chance, which means they have to finish 4-2 in the last six weeks.

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Rams’ playoff odds take big hit, drop to 16.5% after Seahawks beat 49ers

Week 10 was a disaster for the Rams.

Week 10 was not kind to the Los Angeles Rams. Not only did they drop a crucial game to the Steelers, but their competition in the NFC moved further ahead in the standings. The Vikings beat the Cowboys, while the Packers knocked off the Panthers. The Bears got a much-needed win, too, for good measure.

The biggest game of the week came on Monday night when the Seahawks and 49ers squared off in arguably the most important game of the season in the NFC. The Seahawks won 27-24 in overtime, moving just a half-game behind the 49ers for the division lead.

More importantly, they pulled 2.5 games ahead of the Rams for one of the wild-card spots. The ideal outcome on Monday night would’ve been a 49ers win, dropping the Seahawks to 7-3, but the Rams weren’t that fortunate.

According to ESPN’s FPI, the Rams’ playoff chances took a significant hit after Monday’s game. Their odds of making the postseason dropped from 23.5 to 16.5 percent just based on the 49ers-Seahawks finish. Even with the 49ers losing, the Rams’ chances of winning the NFC West sit at 1.6%.

It hasn’t gotten to “Dumb and Dumber” levels of “So you’re telling me a chance” desperation, but the Rams’ playoff hopes are on life support right now. If they don’t beat the Bears on Sunday night and the Cowboys, Eagles, 49ers and Vikings all win, the Rams can all but kiss their postseason plans goodbye.

Broncos still have a chance to reach NFL playoffs

Mathematical, the Broncos still have a shot of reaching the NFL playoffs.

It’s a longshot, but the Denver Broncos still have a shot to reach the 2019-2020 NFL playoffs. If the season ended today, the Broncos would be the AFC’s 12th seed. That obviously wouldn’t be good enough to punch a postseason ticket but Denver has a shot in a wide-open conference.

The Kansas City Chiefs (6-4), Oakland Raiders (5-4) and Los Angeles Chargers (4-6) all rank above the Broncos in the AFC West so Denver’s best hope would be to make it as a Wild Card team, the AFC’s sixth seed.

The Broncos’ competition for that last playoff spot will include the Raiders, the Indianapolis Colts (5-4), Tennessee Titans (5-5), Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5), Chargers and Cleveland Browns (3-6).

Denver has less than a 1% chance of reaching the postseason, according to projections from FiveThirtyEight.com, but with seven games remaining, the Broncos still have a mathematical chance.

Asked about Denver’s playoff chances on Monday, Broncos coach Vic Fangio said the team is focusing on Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings and not looking ahead.

“Our whole focus is trying to get to 4-6,” Fangio said. “As bad as that sounds, we’re trying to win the game we play this week.”

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NFC playoff picture: Who should Rams be pulling for in Seahawks-49ers?

The Rams have to hope San Francisco gets a win on Monday night.

The Los Angeles Rams’ playoff hopes took another big hit on Sunday following their loss to the Steelers. However, thanks to a few other NFC foes losing, the Rams are still in the hunt for a postseason berth.

It’s just that a win over Pittsburgh would’ve helped their chances greatly, pushing them closer to the No. 6 seed. As it stands right now, the Rams are seventh in the conference, bunched in a tie with the Eagles and Panthers, and just one game ahead of their Week 11 opponent, the Bears.

Let’s take a look at the playoff picture as it stands right now.

NFC standings

1. West: 49ers (8-0)

2. North: Packers (8-2)

3. South: Saints (7-2)

4. East: Cowboys (5-4)


5. Wild card: Seahawks (7-2)

6. Wild card: Vikings (7-3)

In the hunt

Rams (5-4)
Eagles (5-4)
Panthers (5-4)
Bears (4-5)
Lions (3-5-1)
Cardinals (3-6-1)

Clearly, things are tight in the NFC. The Rams are 1.5 games out of a wild-card berth behind the Vikings, and two games back of the Seahawks. They trail the 49ers by 2.5 games in the division and have very little chance to catch San Francisco.

Monday night’s matchup between the Seahawks and 49ers only complicates things for the Rams. On one hand, they’ll pick up half a game on someone. On the other, one of the teams is sure to move another step ahead of the Rams – barring a tie, of course.

So who should the Rams (and fans) be rooting for tonight? Following Los Angeles’ loss on Sunday, that answer is much clearer: San Francisco.

If the 49ers win tonight, they’ll move to 9-0, which is four games ahead of the Rams. With only seven games remaining, that’s a margin too wide for Los Angeles to close. More importantly, it’ll drop the Seahawks back to 7-3, which is 1.5 games ahead of the Rams. That’s not an impossible gap to close, especially with the two teams having one matchup left this season.

Seattle winning would give the 49ers their first loss and drop San Francisco to three games ahead of the Rams, but it would also give the Seahawks a 2.5-game cushion for a wild-card spot. That’s a recipe for disaster for the Rams and would create an even steeper climb to the fifth or sixth seed.

There’s no doubt the Rams need a lot of help. They need the Cowboys, Eagles, Seahawks, Vikings and even the Panthers to lose quite a few games. The 49ers crumbling wouldn’t hurt, but San Francisco’s cushion is likely already too big for the Rams to overcome.

On Monday night, the Rams have to hope San Francisco comes away victorious and pushes further ahead in the division – simultaneously knocking the Seahawks back a bit.

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NFC playoff picture: Where the Eagles stand after Cowboys loss on Sunday night

NFC Playoff picture and where the Eagles stand after Cowboys loss

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The Philadelphia Eagles have finished up a much-needed bye week as the team sits at 5-4, with the New England Patriots visiting the Linc this week.

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Things seemed cloudy on Sunday with the San Francisco 49ers, New Orleans Saints, Minnesota Vikings, Seattle Seahawks, and Green Bay Packers all playing so well. It was assumed that the NFC East might only get one team into the playoffs with Philadelphia or Dallas representing the division in the postseason.

After Sunday’s wild and crazy action, culminating with the Cowboys’ huge loss at home to the Vikings, the NFC is now wide open.

Here are your current NFC standings:

National Football Conference

San Francisco 49ers 8-0
Green Bay Packers 8-2
New Orleans Saints 8-2
Seattle Seahawks 7-2
Minnesota Vikings 7-3
Dallas Cowboys 5-4
LA Rams 5-4
Philadelphia Eagles 5-4
Carolina Panthers 5-4
Chicago Bears 4-5
Detroit Lions 3-5-1

Even with the Eagles Week 10 bye,  six of the eight teams currently ahead of them in the playoff picture all did battle with one another on Sunday, with the Panthers losing to the Packers, the Cowboys losing to the Vikings at home, and the 49ers hosting the Seahawks on Monday Night Football.

The Eagles will host the Patriots this week and Seahawks and the Seahawks next Sunday, before playing four of their remaining five games against teams that are a combined 4-22. After the two home matchups, the Eagles will travel to Miami to face the Dolphins, then they’ll host the Giants, travel to Washington, host Dallas and then finish the regular season on the road at MetLife Stadium against the Giants.

After the crushing loss to the Vikings, Dallas will face the Lions, Patriots, Bills, Eagles, and Rams over the next five weeks in a scenario that will make the Week 16 showdown in Philadelphia for the NFC East title.

FiveThirtyEight gives Vikings 87 percent chance to make playoffs

The Vikings are coming off an impressive 28-24 road win over the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.

The Vikings had themselves a statement win on Sunday night against the Cowboys in Dallas, winning 28-24.

That win moved the Vikings to 7-3 and in pretty good position for the postseason.

Per FiveThirtyEight, the Vikings have an 87 percent chance to make the postseason. Minnesota has a 34 percent chance to win the NFC North, a 25 percent chance to get a first-round bye and a (wait for it . . . ) seven percent chance to win the Super Bowl.

Up next for the Vikings are the 3-6 Denver Broncos in Week 11 at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings should win that game and move to 8-3 going into their Week 12 bye week.

This is how the rest of Minnesota’s schedule shakes out:

  • Week 13 at Seattle
  • Week 14 vs. Detroit
  • Week 15 at Chargers
  • Week 16 vs. Packers
  • Week 17 vs. Bears

There is plenty to like about how the Vikings are playing right now, but there’s still a lot of football to be played. We’ll see if they can keep it going.