NFC playoff picture: The Seahawks continue to defy gravity

Here’s how the NFC playoff picture is shaping up with four games left to play.

The Carolina Panthers aren’t making the playoffs this year. Any lingering doubt about that was dispelled with Sunday’s loss to the lowly Washington Redskins. If you don’t believe your eyes, the math should do.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Carolina’s postseason chances are now less than 1%. Minnesota is the team to watch, now. One more win or a tie for them plus a Carolina loss or tie would officially eliminate the Panthers from the race.

Here’s how the NFC playoff picture is shaping up with four games left to play.

Playoff teams

1. New Orleans Saints (10-2)
2. Seattle Seahawks (10-2)
3. Green Bay Packers (9-3)
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-6)
5. San Francisco 49ers (10-2)
6. Minnesota Vikings (8-4)

In the hunt

7. Los Angeles Rams (7-5)
8. Chicago Bears (6-6)
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7)
10. Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)
11. Carolina Panthers (5-7)

Seattle is the big riser, moving up from the No. 5 seed to the No. 2 seed courtesy of its win over Minnesota and a tie-breaker over San Francisco. This was the Seahawks’ sixth win of the season by seven points or less. History says they’re overdue for a dropoff but for now they keep defying gravity. They visit the Panthers in two weeks.

Elsewhere, Dallas is still in danger of losing that No. 4 seed, which at the moment is the equivalent of a buzz-saw. If they hold their position, the 49ers may go down as the toughest fifth seed in the history of the NFL playoffs. Neither the Cowboys nor the Eagles want that particular smoke.

The Vikings made it interesting but couldn’t break Kirk Cousins’ winless streak in Monday night games. They’re in danger of ceding the No. 6 seed to the Rams.

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How Rams can take over No. 6 seed on Sunday after Vikings’ loss

The Rams are still very much alive in the NFC.

The Rams got a little help from their bitter rivals on Monday night at CenturyLink Field. The Seattle Seahawks beat the Minnesota Vikings 37-30, not only taking over the NFC West lead, but also pulling the Rams one game closer to catching the Vikings for a wild-card berth.

Los Angeles went into Week 13 two games back of Minnesota and handled its business by beating the Cardinals 34-7, moving to 7-5 on the year. With the Vikings losing and falling to 8-4, the Rams are now just one game back for the sixth seed in the NFC.

Incredibly, after it seemed like the Rams had very little chance of making the playoffs, their chances are still alive and well. In fact, they can take over the No. 6 seed in the conference as early as Sunday night. It’s fairly simple, too.

They move to No. 6 in the NFC if:

Rams beat Seahawks AND Vikings lose to Lions

Both teams would be 8-5 and the Rams would hold the tiebreaker based on conference record. They don’t play the Vikings this season, so head-to-head won’t come into play, but Minnesota has one fewer game against the NFC remaining so the Rams are technically in control of that tiebreaker.

If the Rams happen to lose to the Seahawks in Week 14 and the Vikings beat Detroit, which many expect to happen, it’ll set Los Angeles back significantly. They would have to overcome a two-game deficit in three weeks, having to face the Cowboys, 49ers and Cardinals to close out the year.

The Rams would need to win at least two of their last three and have the Vikings lose at least two of their final three games, too. Minnesota faces the Lions, Chargers, Packers and Bears the rest of the way.

What’s at stake for 49ers vs. Ravens?

The 49ers badly need a win in Baltimore if they want to keep pace in the NFC.

The 49ers’ showdown with the Baltimore Ravens quickly became their most important contest of the year after the Seahawks and Saints both earned victories last weeks. San Francisco enters Sunday’s game in Baltimore with their first-round bye and home field advantage potentially on the line.

Here’s what’s at stake for the 49ers on Sunday:

With a win…

With a win the 49ers stay on top of the NFC and the NFC West. They also start 2-0 through that vaunted three game stretch vs. the Packers, Ravens and Saints.

San Francisco legitimized themselves as contenders in the NFC with their 37-8 thumping of Green Bay last week. They can leap to Super Bowl favorites if they knock off the Ravens.

A win would also be a step toward clinching a playoff spot. They can do so in Week 13 with victory and a Rams loss or tie.

With a loss…

A loss puts a couple of bad things into play. First, falling to 10-2 would allow the Seahawks to jump into first in the NFC West, and second place in the NFC. Seattle holds the tiebreaker with San Francisco, so they’d switch spots with the 49ers if they beat Minnesota on Monday night.

Moving to the No. 5 seed means the 49ers would lose home field advantage and their first-round bye.

Winning the NFC West is going to be imperative, and a loss Sunday puts immense pressure on the 49ers to stay in lockstep with Seattle until the two teams face off in Week 17. Ideally, that final game would be meaningless for the 49ers and they could rest their starters to get ready for the postseason. A loss to Baltimore puts that scenario much less realistic.

Lions are now officially eliminated from playoff contention after loss to the Bears

It’s the earliest the Lions have been eliminated since 2010

With Thursday’s turkey of a loss to the Chicago Bears, the Detroit Lions have officially been eliminated from postseason contention. It’s a mathematical confirmation of what has been the working reality over the last few weeks.

The loss dropped Detroit to 3-8-1. Both Green Bay and Minnesota have already topped 8 wins on the season in the NFC North, meaning the Lions have no chance of catching them; the best Detroit can finish is 7-8-1.

The strength at the top of the NFC shatters any longshot dreams. Seattle and San Francisco have also already surpassed the 8-win barrier in the NFC West. There is no mathematical possibility of the Lions finishing with a better record than either team, and that ends the Wild Card chase.

Washington has a worse overall record than Detroit at just 2-9, but the Redskins can still win the NFC East. Dallas’ loss in the late afternoon game on Thanksgiving drops the first-place Cowboys to 6-6. That’s how Washington remains alive despite being worse in the standings.

This is the earliest the Lions have been eliminated from postseason contention since 2010.

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49ers can clinch playoff spot in Week 13

The 49ers can clinch a playoff spot in Week 13.

The 49ers could finish Week 13 at the No. 5 seed in the NFC. They could also clinch a playoff spot.

The Rams are the last-remaining five-loss team in the NFC and they’re sitting at the No. 7 seed, one spot out of the playoffs, so they’re the only team that matters most to the 49ers in this clinching scenario. They’re in Arizona to face the 3-7-1 Cardinals. A loss would push them to 6-6, making 10-6 their best possible finish. The 49ers clinched a 10-6 record last week by moving to 10-1 with a victory over the Packers. They could get their clinching 11th win this week in Baltimore.

Here are the 49ers’ clinching scenarios:

49ers win + Rams loss or tie
49ers tie + Rams loss

This essentially sets up a scenario where a 49ers win and a Rams loss clinches a playoff spot for San Francisco the rest of the way.

The Rams visit Levi’s Stadium in Week 16, but if things go right for San Francisco, they’ll have wrapped up a playoff spot long before then.

Drawing up scenario where Chargers make playoffs

It’s a bit of a long shot, but the Chargers could still make the playoffs. We take a look at a scenario.

Playoffs? Yes, we are talking about the Chargers’ playoff chances.

Just three weeks ago, you could’ve said that Los Angeles was in the clear running for a playoff spot. But after two crucial losses to divisional opponents, their chances are nearly nonexistent.

L.A. is not mathematically eliminated, which means they could still play in January. According to ESPN’s NFL Football Power Index, the Chargers have a 0.4% chance to reach the postseason.

At the moment, the Bolts are three games behind the 7-4 Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West, and they’re only two games back from the 6-5 Pittsburgh Steelers for the No. 6 seed.

Los Angeles is no stranger to going on runs and shocking the world. It seems impossible, but plenty of crazy things happen in the NFL, and they possess the talent on both sides of the ball to make it happen, especially knowing they get an extra boost with safeties Derwin James and Adrian Phillips.

So, how can they continue playing in the month of January? Using ESPN’s Playoff Machine, we ran through a variety of realistic scenarios by predicting each game that involves AFC teams. In this case, the Bolts get the last Wild Card spot.

Note: This involves the Chargers winning their last five games to make this happen.

Here’s how it looks:

Week 13

Bills at Cowboys

Eagles at Dolphins

Browns at Steelers

Raiders at Chiefs

Chargers at Broncos

Titans at Colts

Patriots at Texans

Buccaneers at Jaguars

Week 14

Bengals at Browns

Dolphins at Jets

Ravens at Bills

Chargers at Jaguars

Chiefs at Patriots

Steelers at Cardinals

Broncos at Texans

Titans at Raiders

Colts at Buccaneers

Week 15

Jets at Ravens

Texans at Titans

Browns at Cardinals

Patriots at Bengals

Jaguars at Raiders

Broncos at Chiefs

Vikings at Chargers

Bills at Steelers

Dolphins at Giants

Colts at Saints

Week 16

Texans at Buccaneers

Saints at Titans

Lions at Broncos

Jaguars at Falcons

Bills at Patriots

Raiders at Chargers

Ravens at Browns

Panthers at Colts

Bengals at Dolphins

Chiefs at Bears

Steelers at Jets

Week 17

Dolphins at Patriots

Colts at Jaguars

Steelers at Ravens

Chargers at Chiefs

Jets at Bills

Browns at Bengals

Raiders at Broncos

Titans at Texans

Here’s how the standings would look:

Los Angeles wins tie break over Oakland based on best win percentage in common games.

Here’s how the playoff matchups would look like:

The bottom line is that the Chargers will not only have to run the table, but there is a slew of things that will have to happen in order to clinch a playoff berth.

It’s unfortunate that Los Angeles is in this position after being pegged as a potential Super Bowl contender, but injuries, a coaching change and most importantly, in-game mistakes ultimately cost them.

Coming off a much-needed bye, the Chargers should feel refreshed, physically and mentally and ready to overcome their disappointing losses this season. Their uphill climb all starts this weekend against the Denver Broncos.

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NFC playoff picture: Bubble teams like the Rams are running out of time

Here’s an updated look at the NFC playoff picture after Week 12.

There’s still five weeks left to play in the NFL’s 2019 regular season. We already have a good idea who’s going to be in the postseason, though.

Here’s an updated look at the NFC playoff picture after Week 12.

Playoff teams

1. San Francisco 49ers (10-1)
2. New Orleans Saints (9-2)
3. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
4. Dallas Cowboys (6-5)
5. Seattle Seahawks (9-2)
6. Minnesota Vikings (8-3)

Still in the race

7. Los Angeles Rams (6-5)
8. Chicago Bears (5-6)
9. Philadelphia Eagles (5-6)
10. Carolina Panthers (5-6)

The gap between the teams that are currently in line for a playoff spot and those that are trying to work their way in is significant. LA’s mortifying loss to the Ravens on Monday night might have made it impossible for them to catch up with Seattle and Minnesota for a wild card spot.

If there’s going to be any change, Dallas could end up losing the NFC East race to the Eagles, which would give Philly the No. 4 seed. Other than that, it’s hard to see any of the other five playoff teams dropping out at this point. The Seahawks have been winning a lot of close games and are due for some regression. It hasn’t happened yet, though. Meanwhile, the Vikings have a pretty cushy schedule to close out the year.

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Rams’ playoff chances on life support, drop to 19% after Week 12 loss

The Rams’ playoff hopes took a major hit on Monday night.

Last season, the Los Angeles Rams clinched the NFC West on Dec. 2 with a win over the Lions. This year, it’ll take a miracle for them to sneak into the playoffs as a wild-card team. That’s especially evident after their most recent loss, an uninspiring 45-6 defeat at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens on Monday night.

The Rams entered the game with a 29% chance to make the playoffs, according to the New York Times’ playoff predictor. A win would’ve pushed their chances to nearly 40%, but this loss sets them back significantly on their quest to the postseason.

After falling to the Ravens, the Rams now have just a 19% chance to make the playoffs. If they win their next three games, their odds jump to 56%, but that’s also not including the results of other games across the NFL. A loss to the Cardinals next week drops the Rams’ chances to a measly 7%, all but ending their playoff hopes.

Los Angeles hasn’t looked like a playoff team lately, scoring just two offensive touchdowns in its last three games. The defense had been playing well, but it was gashed for 285 yards by the Ravens on Monday night at home.

Not only did this loss really hurt the Rams’ playoff chances statistically, but mentally and emotionally, it was a deflating defeat.

49ers assert dominance in NFC, stay atop playoff picture

The 49ers are the best team in the NFC, and Sunday proved it.

The 49ers’ spot as the NFC’s top team is no longer in question after they toppled the Packers 37-8 in Week 12. The win allowed them to create separation from Green Bay, and stay a game ahead of the Seahawks and Saints after their wins Sunday.

Here’s what the NFC playoff picture looks like after Sunday’s action:

1. 49ers (10-1)
2. Saints (9-2)
3. Packers (8-3)
4. Cowboys (6-5)
5. Seahawks (9-2)
6. Vikings (8-3)

The Rams are the No. 7 seed at 6-4, but given the level of play in the top six seeds, it’s hard to see them climbing back in. They face the Ravens on Monday Night Football, and a loss could effectively end their season.

San Francisco’s win Sunday over Green Bay was enormous because a loss would’ve knocked the 49ers to the No. 5 seed. Instead, they pounded the Packers and showed why they own the best record in the NFC. While the 49ers’ schedule has been relatively light, they’re dominating teams that’re going to finish below them in the standings. Not to mention their lone loss came in the final seconds of overtime to the Seahawks.

The 49ers are as dominant as their record and plus-169 point differential indicate, and that was on full display Sunday night at Levi’s Stadium.

The race in the conference for a first-round bye and home-field advantage is going to be fascinating. The Packers and Vikings play again in Week 16. The 49ers and Saints play in Week 14, and then San Francisco faces Seattle in the final week of the season.

We may already have the six playoff teams in the NFC, but we’re far from having the order settled with five weeks to go.

Chargers out to be playoff spoilers

Chargers could shake up the playoff race in their last five games.

The Chargers might not be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, but sitting at 4-7, their chances are slim.

Following the Week 11 matchup, coach Anthony Lynn said that his team had no desire to throw the season away even though they’re on the outside looking in.

However, even though Los Angeles may not be among the 12 teams to be playing in January, they could shake things up by affecting the teams that are in the running.

Touchdown Wire’s Doug Farrar compiled a list of teams that could be spoilers the rest of the way out and among them is the Chargers.

The Chargers haven’t lost a game by more than a touchdown all season, and they’ve had the usual number of heartbreaking, late-game meltdowns that brought them to their current 4-7 record. In their past two games, losses to the Raiders and Chiefs by a combined nine points, the obvious issue was Philip Rivers’ hurling the ball all over the place, especially in ultimate crunch time. Per Sports Info Solutions, Rivers has four interceptions in the last two minutes of games this season — no other quarterback has more than one except for Dak Prescott, who has two.

The Chargers have an above-average defense, a good group of receivers, and a strong running game with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler. Their situational awareness has been nightmarish all season, but they have enough in the tank to make things interesting for the Packers, Raiders and Chiefs in the last three weeks of the regular season … if Rivers can get his bearings.

Among the five teams that the Bolts have remaining on their schedule, three of them are in playoff contention — Vikings, Chiefs, Raiders.

Even though the Chargers have been belittled by injuries throughout the course of the season, they showed that they can play with the best of the best, as they have not lost a game by more than a touchdown all season.

But heading into the final stretch, Los Angeles will likely get back two of their best defensive players in safeties Derwin James and Adrian Phillips and their starting left tackle, Russell Okung.

With just those additions alone and coming off a bye to physically and mentally refresh after a handful of late-game blunders, you could be looking at a potential run by the Bolts.

Who knows, that run may be enough to knock off some team’s playoff hopes, but revive theirs. In the NFL, there are plenty of crazier things that have happened.

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