Tag: NFL playoff odds

What are the Panthers’ chances of making the playoffs at 3-5?

Losing to the Falcons on Thursday night was a significant blow for the Panthers’ chances of making the NFL playoffs.

Losing to the Falcons on Thursday night was a significant blow for the Panthers’ chances of making the NFL playoffs. Heading into Week 9 (not counting Monday night’s game), Carolina’s odds of making the postseason are in bad shape. According to FiveThirtyEight’s prediction model, the team is projected to finish the year 6-10 with a -57.1 point differential. Their chances of making the playoffs are 3%.

The schedule isn’t doing them any favors, either. On Sunday they will visit the 7-1 Chiefs, followed by the (currently) 5-2 Buccaneers, who already beat them back in Week 2. Scoring an upset over Kansas City seems pretty impossible, so we can assume Carolina will go into Week 10 with a 3-6 record.

Beating Tampa at home won’t be easy, but it’s not unthinkable given how close the last matchup was even with three turnovers from Teddy Bridgewater. If the Panthers can somehow pull off a win there, they’ll keep their (admittedly slim) hopes alive.

Their next two opponents after the Bucs are the Lions and the Vikings, both beatable teams. Beating Tampa, Detroit and Minnesota would put this team at 6-6 going into their bye week. That might give them an outside shot to earn the extra wild card spot down the stretch.

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Browns playoff chances still very much alive

The Cleveland Browns playoff probability jumps to over 50 percent with a win over the Steelers in Week 13

At a record of 5-6, the playoffs might seem like a crazy goal for the Cleveland Browns. But three straight wins, a favorable upcoming schedule to finish out the season and a lack of good teams in the AFC all make the postseason a more realistic outcome than you might think.

The current AFC Wild Card picture is very crowded after the Week 12 Sunday outcomes. Right now the Browns sit at the No. 10 seed, looking up at four teams with 6-5 records. One of those is the Pittsburgh Steelers, who Cleveland faces in Week 13.

Pittsburgh currently holds the No. 6 seed, the final playoff spot. They win tiebreakers over the Tennessee Titans, Oakland Raiders and Indianapolis Colts based on conference record. If the Browns win in Pittsburgh on Sunday, they’ll own the tiebreaker with Pittsburgh based on sweeping the Steelers.

Alas, the picture is more complicated than that. Head-to-head only matters when there are just two teams involved. But the Browns are looking very good in any multi-team tie, too. Like Pittsburgh, the Browns are currently 5-3 against AFC opponents. A win over the Steelers seizes that tiebreaker for Cleveland.

There are still loads of outcomes that will weigh into the race over the next five weeks. The Titans and Colts play in Week 13, and then Tennessee visits Oakland the following Sunday. The Jaguars, Chargers and Jets are all 4-7 and still alive, too.

Football Outsiders calculates the current Browns playoff odds at 26.4 percent. At FiveThirtyEight, the current odds are 30 percent. Their interactive tool allows some ability to project forward, so I ran a scenario of outcomes for Week 13.

The Browns percentage jumps to 54 percent with the following hypothetical results from this coming week:

Cleveland beats Pittsburgh

Tennessee beats Indianapolis

Kansas City beats Oakland

It goes up to 57 percent probability if the Cowboys knock off the 8-3 Buffalo Bills, the current Wild Card leaders.