On one hand, the playing of professional sports is one of the last things anyone should be concerned about in times such as these. With people losing loved ones across the country and the globe, millions unemployed and not knowing what their personal futures hold, what happens in the world of sports seems as inconsequential as it’s ever been. But that’s ignoring why sports is such a vital component to so many people’s lives.
Rooting for sports teams, paying attention to their every move is the ultimate distraction. Outside of trying to stay safe, there isn’t much most folks can do to change the course of the pandemic. Being distracted, having something to do other than fret and be anxious about the state of the world might be the most important thing in the history of right now. That’s why a return of sports is of paramount importance for so many. Sports has shown to have a healing power on the collective, as it did for America following the 9/11 attacks. The NFL, like the other American professional sports leagues, is trying to map out a plan that will allow the competitions to resume as soon as things are safe.
There are of course many hurdles to jump through. From the threat posed to the coaching community, mostly made up of men in the high-risk age groups, to the issues with what to do with games were players to test positive the night before, many things will have to be worked through before games can resume. Even when they do, though, there is a strong possibility games could be played without fans, and therefore local revenue will be greatly impacted for each of the NFL’s 32 teams.
Local revenue accounts for about one-third of total revenue, of which a formula decides how much teams are allowed to spend on player salaries. As such, if the league isn’t open to the public, revenue will be greatly impacted and teams could lose between $70 million to $100 million in revenue for 2020. That in turn will likely have a huge impact on the 2021 salary cap.
CBS’ Jonathan Jones contemplates this to a great degree here. The long and short is that, because the NFL’s hard cap and CBA does not allow for a universal decrease of player salaries in proportion to lost profits, there’s a very real chance that teams will look to trim payroll to limit expenses in 2021.
A flat salary cap for the next several years is the most likely scenario. The salary cap, with the boatloads of new revenue expected from TV deals – adding two wild-card games this year, and a 17th regular season game for all 32 teams next year – was expected to explode as early as 2022. In-stadium gambling was on it’s way, too, to bolster legalized gaming in several states of which pro leagues are going to get a cut. But those extra streams may not be realized fully and even the portions that will be could be used to subsidize what is certainly going to be a lean forecast for the 2020 and likely 2021 seasons.
As Jones points out, the league will likely borrow against those revenues as the debt ceilings for teams has already been upped by $150 million and maintain a flat salary cap for at least the 2021 season. Without the annual $10 million bump and the expected $20 million or more annual bump from 2022 onward, long-term deals already signed or currently being negotiated (read: Dak Prescott) take a different turn.
Clubs will likely end up hollowing out the middle of their roster, jettisoning mid-level veterans with pricey deals so they can afford the escalating costs on their star players. That leaves several players at risk of not making the team for reasons other than just their level of play.
Follow the jump to see who may be most at risk.