Value play: Bet Panthers’ Brian Burns to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year

Analyzing the 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds, including an expert prediction and best bet.

The Carolina Panthers are going to be a new-look team in 2023 after overhauling their coaching staff and taking QB Bryce Young with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. On the defensive side of the ball, OLB Brian Burns continues to develop into one of the league’s premier edge rushers for the Panthers.

There aren’t lofty expectations for the Panthers in 2023 as they are tied for the 4th-worst odds to win the Super Bowl (+8000). Meanwhile, they have the 3rd-worst odds to win the NFC (+3300) and have the 2nd-worst odds to secure the NFC South crown (+375).

We’ve seen defensive players on middling teams win the NFL Defensive Player of the Year award before. So, even with Carolina expected to be a below-average team this season, Burns is a fantastic value for the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year award (+2000) in 2023.

Below, we look at the 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds at BetMGM Sportsbook – with the best suggestion among our expert NFL picks and predictions.

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2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday, June 20, at 4:44 a.m. ET.

  • LB Micah Parsons, Dallas Cowboys (+650)
  • DE Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns (+700)
  • LB T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh Steelers (+750)
  • DE Nick Bosa, San Francisco 49ers (+1100)
  • CB Ahmad Sauce Gardner, New York Jets (+1100)
  • DE Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas Raiders (+1200)
  • DT Aaron Donald, Los Angeles Rams (+1800)
  • DE Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions (+1800)
  • LB BRIAN BURNS, Carolina Panthers (+2000)
  • DE Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs (+2000)

OTHERS

+2500: DT Quinnen Williams (Jets), LB Haason Reddick (Eagles)

+3500: LB Joey Bosa (Chargers)

+4000: LB Rashan Gary (Packers), LB Roquan Smith (Ravens), LB Fred Warner (49ers), CB Patrick Surtain II (Broncos)

For full list, see BetMGM Sportsbook.

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NFL Defensive Player of the Year best bet

LB Brian Burns, Carolina Panthers (+2000)

With the NFL becoming a pass-oriented league, pass rushers have become a popular choice for the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year award. An outside linebacker or defensive end has taken home the hardware in 6 of the last 11 seasons, including each of the last 2.

Burns, who was the 16th overall selection by the Panthers in the 2019 NFL Draft out of Florida State, has gradually improved his production in each of his first 4 seasons. After notching back-to-back 9-sack seasons in 2020 and 2021, Burns registered career-best marks in sacks (12.5), tackles for loss (17), and quarterback hits (22) in 2022.

The former Seminole will be playing on his 5th-year option this season, and the 25-year-old is set to get an expensive contract soon, whether it be from the Panthers or another team. The Panthers likely will play from behind in a majority of their games this season, which should give Burns more pass-rushing opportunities under new defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero.

Last season. Nick Bosa won the Defensive Player of the Year award with a league-best 18.5 sacks, and Watt tallied 22.5 sacks to win the prestigious award in 2021.

If Burns can continue improving his production in the pass-rushing department in 2023, he could be a dark-horse pick to win the league’s Defensive Player of the Year award.

BET BRIAN BURNS to win NFL DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR (+2000) in 2023.

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2020 NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds, best bets

Analyzing the NFL betting odds to win the 2020 Defensive Player of the Year award, with NFL betting odds, picks, predictions and best bets.

The NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year award has been dominated by pass rushers in recent history. Since 2010, seven of the last 10 winners have been pass rushers in some form, whether on the edge or at defensive tackle.

The New England Patriots’ Stephon Gilmore broke the mold last year by winning it as a cornerback, but it’s rare for a defensive back to take home this award.

In 2020, there’s a host of quality candidates, many of whom are unsurprisingly pass rushers. However, among the top eight favorites, there are two defensive backs.

We take a look at the best bets for Defensive Player of the Year in 2020 with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.

Defensive Player of the Year odds

Below are the eight favorites. Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Monday, May 11 at 2:20 p.m. ET.

  • Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams +750
  • Khalil Mack, OLB, Chicago Bears +1000
  • Nick Bosa, DE, San Francisco 49ers +1300
  • Stephon Gilmore, CB, Patriots +1500
  • T.J. Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers +1500
  • J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans +1700
  • Von Miller, OLB, Denver Broncos +1800
  • Derwin James, S, Los Angeles Chargers +2000

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Best bet: Aaron Donald +750

Donald is the favorite, and for good reason. He’s won the award twice in his career and although his numbers dipped a bit last season, he was still deserving of consideration for the award because of the impact he has that doesn’t show up on the box score.

With DTs Michael Brockers back and A’Shawn Robinson also on the defensive line, Donald has a decent supporting cast – even though the loss of LB Dante Fowler Jr. will hurt from a pass-rush perspective. But Donald has had double-digit sacks in four of the last five years and should eclipse 10 in 2020.

Value play: T.J. Watt +1500

Watt had a strong case to win the award last season, but was beat out by Gilmore, who had a phenomenal season on arguably the best defense in the NFL. Watt had 14.5 sacks and tied for the NFL high with eight forced fumbles, hitting the QB 36 times in 16 games.

He’s durable and productive and his numbers have only improved each season he’s been in the NFL. Next season should be his best yet and he’ll certainly be in the running to win the award. At +1500, there’s a ton of upside, too.

Long shot pick: Chandler Jones +3000

The Cardinals’ Jones has never won Defensive Player of the Year, despite leading the NFL with 96 sacks since arriving in Arizona in 2016. He had a career-high 19 sacks and an NFL-leading eight forced fumbles last season, finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting with only seven fewer votes than Gilmore.

The Cardinals should be much-improved in 2020, too, which will only help Jones’ exposure as an impact player.

Want action on the 2020 NFL Defensive Player of the Year prop or any other NFL futures bets? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com.

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