Tag: nfl 2021` free agency

Grading T.Y. Hilton re-signing with the Colts: B

T.Y. Hilton is back, having reached a one-year deal to return to Indianapolis. Does the grade hang on what we see from Carson Wentz in 2021?

The Ghost is not going anywhere.

After testing the free agent waters, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton is returning to the Indianapolis Colts. The veteran receiver is back on a one-year deal for $10 million, with $8 million of that guaranteed. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported out the terms per Hilton’s representatives.

Viewing the terms and looking at the season Hilton put on tape in 2019 — and the presence of his new quarterback — I think “cautious optimism” is perhaps the best way to frame this news. Hilton is a few seasons removed from some of his most productive years in the NFL, such as the 2016 campaign when he caught 91 passes for 1,448 yards and six touchdowns, and his evaluation might be clouded by the quarterback play this past season in Indianapolis, when Philip Rivers was perhaps running on fumes near the end. But when you dive into his film and ignore the numbers Hilton is still a dangerous weapon, even as a downfield target.

Hilton caught 56 passes this year on 93 targets for 76 yards and five touchdowns, but there were certainly opportunities for bigger plays that were left on the field. Take this post route against the Jacksonville Jaguars, where Hilton gets behind the coverage but the pass is slightly underthrown and intercepted:

Or this seam route where Hilton gets behind the coverage, but the throw is late and broken up:

As expected, other receivers drew the most attention early in free agency. A bet on Hilton now is a bet that the quarterback play in 2020 was more of the reason for the lack of production, and not the receiver himself. Looking ahead, however, that means that the Colts will need Carson Wentz to also be a better quarterback than he was a season ago. If not, Hilton’s return to the Colts might not live up to the new contract.

In that case, however, Hilton’s contract will be the least of the concerns in Indianapolis.

The best remaining NFL free agents for 2021

The NFL’s first week of free agency is winding down. Who are the best options left on the market?

In the first day of the 2020 legal tampering period, NFL teams threw millions of dollars at their own players to re-sign, and committed future dollars which will became real when the 2021 league year kicked in at 4 p.m. ET Wednesday.

Now, as the calendar week draws to a close, is when the real work gets done. Sure the big names are — mostly — signed but this is the portion of free agency when rosters are truly built out, and championships are perhaps won. There are still all kinds of quality free agents at every position, and, even with the Patriots giving out roughly the GDP of a small nation in guaranteed money Monday, there is still plenty of cash to be spent by other teams. here are the most prominent names left on the open market.

Grading JuJu Smith-Schuster re-signing with the Pittsburgh Steelers: A-

The Pittsburgh Steelers are bringing back wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster on a one-year deal. What does this do for player and team?

Wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster is staying put. The free agent wide receiver has reached an agreement on a one-year deal to stay with the Pittsburgh Steelers after testing the free agency waters.

The NFL Network’s Taylor Bisciotti was among those breaking the news on social media. According to reports, the receiver is taking a “substantial” pay cut to stay with the Steelers as the organization works through a tricky cap situation. The news of the deal broke around the same time that it was reported that the Steelers had granted cornerback Steven Nelson permission to seek a trade.

Something that might endear Smith-Schuster to Pittsburgh fans even more? The receiver rebuffed a hard push from the rival Baltimore Ravens:

He is only a few seasons removed from a 2018 campaign that saw him catch 111 passes for 1,426 yards and seven touchdowns, although he topped that touchdown mark with nine scores this past season. In 2020 he displayed the ability to serve as more of a vertical threat in the passing game, but his best work remains near the line of scrimmages on slants, quick-hitting designs, and concepts more rooted in the West Coast school of thought. 

For those reasons, Smith-Schuster might be an ideal fit for a few different teams, such as San Francisco, Las Vegas or Chicago, if the Bears are forced to watch Allen Robinson leave in free agency.  This play against the Dallas Cowboys is a prime example of what he offers:

He beats press coverage, extends the separation after the break on his slant route, and picks up yardage after the catch.

This is a very solid move for the Steelers, who retain one of their offensive weapons as they navigate a tricky off-season financially. For Smith-Schuster, the reality of this spring is that the wide receiver class has not been as friendly for the players as it is the teams, perhaps due to the incoming class of rookies. He’ll have another season in Pittsburgh to produce and hope that the next off-season provides a stronger market for players at the position. It also gives quarterback Ben Roethisberger a familiar face as the Steelers try and gear up for perhaps the veteran QB’s final ride.

Grading Riley Reiff’s deal with the Cincinnati Bengals: B+

The Cincinnati Bengals have a new offensive tackle, adding Riley Reiff. Is this a clue into their plans with the fifth-overall pick?

Last year the Cincinnati Bengals drafted quarterback Joe Burrow with the first-overall selection. While the rookie passer showed promise, his season ended early with an ACL injury. That has led for calls in Cincinnati for the Bengals to do a much better job protecting their quarterback next season.

The organization took a step towards achieving that goal today, signing veteran tackle Riley Reiff to a contract in free agency.

Ian Rapoport of the NFL Network was one of the first to report the deal:

The Bengals made a big pitch towards the veteran tackle, with Reiff meeting with the organization and having dinner with a number of players, including the rising-second year quarterback:

https://twitter.com/AlbertBreer/status/1372910413789151232?s=20

Reiff is a solid tackle who has posted some good seasons during his time in the league. He was drafted in the first round of the 2012 draft by the Detroit Lions, and was a rotational player his rookie season — including seeing some time as a blocking tight end — before earning the starting left tackle spot for the 2013 campaign. At the end of his rookie deal he signed a new contract with the Minnesota Vikings, and spent the past four seasons as their starting left tackle. Last year was perhaps his best as a professional, as he allowed just a single sack according to charting data from Pro Football Focus, his lowest number in a season.

While this is a very good move for the Bengals and addresses a position of need, there is one more thing to consider:

Conventional wisdom holds that the Bengals will address offensive line with the fifth-overall selection, whether Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater. This move, and the comment from Zac Taylor, could potentially indicate that the organization is going to move in a different direction. I still contend that the Bengals would be wise to use additional draft capital on the offensive line, but with this move and the discussion of Jonah Williams, the team might be thinking instead about adding a weapon around Burrow. Could that work? Sure. I mean Kyle Pitts would be a welcome addition to that offense, as would a player like DeVonta Smith or Ja’Marr Chase.

Maybe this move is a sign that the Bengals will indeed go in that different direction, which could really inject some talent into that offensive huddle.

Grading Curtis Samuel’s deal with the Washington Football Team: A

Don’t look now but the Washington Football Team is starting to put a solid offense together, adding the versatile Curtis Samuel.

This is a tremendous move for the Washington Football Team, who are having themselves a great start to the off-season.

First the club added quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, and as we outlined here there are a number of reasons why that signing makes sense for the organization. But with a need at wide receiver, the Football Team made another move, adding WR Curtis Samuel, one of the more enticing wideouts available in free agency.

Ian Rapoport was among those reporting the terms of the deal:

Last year, his first season in Joe Brady’s offense, Samuel set career-high marks in receiving yardage, yards from scrimmage, receptions, first downs, rushing attempts, rushing yardage, and touches. Brady found a variety of ways to get Samuel involved in the offense, and teams looking for that type of Swiss army knife type of weapon are going to love what he did on film.

Purely as a receiver, Samuel can fit in an offense either as a slot or a Z type of player, who can be effective to all levels of the field and offer a complex and varied route tree. Samuel was very efficient on routes working over the middle, being used in a manner similar to how Brady used Justin Jefferson two years ago in the LSU offense. Samuel shows a knack for finding soft spots in zone coverage on routes working across the field, and can even go up and high-point the football in contested catch situations. He is a WR2 type of player in most systems, and even offenses that run a heavy dosage of 12 personnel would love to have him as one of the two wide receivers on the field. 

And just think, his numbers last season could have even been better:

Another thing that he brings to the table is toughness as well as versatility, and he put both on display on this play against his new team:

Scott Turner will love to design plays for Samuel, who now gets to operate with Terry McLaurin on the other side of the field. Washington is starting to put together a nice little offense, with McLaurin and Samuel on the outside, Logan Thomas growing into a solid NFL tight end, and running back Antonio Gibson and his own versatility. With a deep wide receiver draft class, Washington could find a third option at any point of the draft and really have a solid offense around their expected starting quarterback in Fitzpatrick.

Grading Haason Reddick’s deal with the Carolina Panthers: A-

The Carolina Panthers seem to becoming Temple South, as Matt Rhule reunites with former Owls defender Haason Reddick.

Dropping back to throw against the Carolina Panthers next season might be tough on the opposing quarterback. Not only will you need to keep an eye on Brian Burns off one edge, but you might have to keep the other on the other edge and the newly acquired Haason Reddick. The pass rusher has signed with the Panthers on a one-year deal.

Mike Garafolo of the NFL Network was among those announcing the terms of the contract:

Reddick’s is coming off his breakout campaign, which finally happened in the past season when he amassed 12.5 sacks, five in one game against the Giants in Week 13, eight quarterback hits, 35 quarterback hurries, six forced fumbles, and 18 coverage snaps. The primary difference? Arizona finally scrapped its weird intent to make Reddick an inside linebacker and just let him go nuts from the edge. At that point, the “bust” label went away. Sometimes, it isn’t the player’s fault.

Reddick has learned to make life a nightmare for offensive tackles with a playing style that makes one wonder if his ass is on fire, and he also has the speed and acumen to find the open gap anywhere and stunt his way through multiple gaps to get the quarterback. At 6-foot-1 and 235 pounds, he’s not your typical bull-rushing edge defender, but if you’re in charge of a defense that places a premium on aggressive speed from the outside, you could do far worse than giving Reddick a pretty decent contract. The Panthers are one such team, making this a great fit because of plays like this:

Then there are studies like this that show Reddick’s 2020 season is primed to continue:

Reddick is now reunited with his college coach, as he played for Matt Rhule at Temple. That worked least season for Robby Anderson, who gave the Panthers a downfield presence in the passing game, and it sure looks like it could work this year on the defensive side of the ball with both Burns and Reddick coming off the edge.

Grading Gerald Everett’s deal with the Seattle Seahawks: B+

The Seattle Seahawks have added a tight end. Is Gerald Everett the key to unlocking their passing game?

With both Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry off the market — and both players finding new homes in Foxborough with the New England Patriots — perhaps the most enticing tight end option left in free agency stood Gerald Everett.

Everett is staying in the NFC West, but will be switching teams. The tight end announced on social media that he is signing with the Seattle Seahawks:

In case the reference to the “12s” was unclear, the NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport provided more clarity and the terms of the deal:

I’ll admit to taking something of a shine to Everett, and particularly how Sean McVay used him in Los Angeles.

Everett’s movement skills and quickness make him a matchup nightmare against linebackers, and given that Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay found a variety of ways to ensure that Everett would get favorable matchups this season, and then exploit them after the snap. Everett’s ability was a big reason that Los Angeles used a lot more 12 offensive personnel the past few seasons, including using that package 29% of the time this past year.

Only the Philadelphia Eagles, the Tennessee Titans, and the Arizona Cardinals used that two tight end package on a higher percentage of their offensive plays.

As a result, Everett started seven games, the most of his career, and put up career-high numbers in targets, receptions, yards and first downs. This play against Washington is a perfect example of how McVay would get his tight end favorable matchups against linebackers, as Everett aligns as a fullback in the backfield:

 

The Football Team drops into a Cover-4 on this play, but you can see how the alignment and personnel work to get Everett a golden opportunity for a bit play.

Then there is this example against the Cardinals, where Everett flashes his change-of-direction ability on a slant route against a man coverage linebacker:

As more teams use 12 personnel, having the true move type of TE is a big part of offensive game-planning. Organizations that are looking for such a player would be smart to kick the tires  on Everett. Seattle, a team that used 12 personnel on 28% of their snaps last year, is one such team, and they might have just gotten a steal. 

Grading C Ted Karras’ deal with the New England Patriots: B-

Bill Belichick continues to make moves, and the New England Patriots have perhaps finalized their offensive line for the 2021 campaign.

Bill Belichick continues to remake the roster as free agency rolls on, and the latest move in Foxborough brings center Ted Karras back to the organization after a season spent with the Miami Dolphins. That move comes in the wake of the team trading for tackle Trent Brown prior to the start of the legal tampering period, and seeing guard Joe Thuney join the Kansas City Chiefs in free agency.

Jeff Howe of The Athletic was the first with the news, and  Tom Pelissero added the terms minutes later. Karras gets a one-year deal worth $4 million to come back to the Patriots.

The grade here is a nod to the move that is probably next: David Andrews, the Patriots’ current starting center, signing with a new team. Andrews is entering free agency himself and after Corey Linsley was probably the best option available on the market. The Green Bay Packers might even try and sign Andrews to replace Linsley, who is now with the Los Angeles Chargers.

So this move represents a slight downgrade for the Patriots, as Andrews was a core component of their offensive line both in the 2018-2019 season when the team won Super Bowl LIII, and last year in his return to the starting lineup. Andrews did miss the 2019-2020 season with blood clots in his lungs. Karras took over in Andrews’ place for that season, playing over 1,000 snaps at the center spot, and he allowed two sacks, 11 quarterback hurries and 14 QB pressures. Karras was the Dolphins’ starter last year, and he allowed a pair of sacks and 11 pressures.

So this gives the Patriots a replacement for the expected Andrews departure, and also frees up perhaps some cap space given that New England will not be paying more for Andrews. So there is that. Now New England is probably looking at an offensive line of:

LT: Isaiah Wynn

LG: Michael Onwenu

C: Ted Karras

RG: Shaq Mason

RT: Trent Brown

In all, not a bad group for their new-look offense.

Grading QB Andy Dalton’s deal with the Chicago Bears: C+

Good news Bears fans, you have a new quarterback. The problem? Andy Dalton is probably not the passer you were hoping for.

In what probably feels like a letdown for Chicago Bears fans after weeks of Russell Wilson speculation, the organization does indeed have a new quarterback.

Andy Dalton.

After a season spent with the Dallas Cowboys as the backup behind Dak Prescott, the former Cincinnati Bengals signal-caller has his third NFL home in three seasons as the potential starting quarterback for the Bears. Ian Rapoport was among the first to report the deal for Dalton:

Here is the good news for the Bears: They might finally have a quarterback who can simply run Matt Nagy’s offense appropriately. As we saw from Dalton’s action this past season, his strength right now as a quarterback comes in the realm of getting the ball out on time and in rhythm.

Dalton’s experience allows him to be a point guard in most offensive systems, where he can make throws on time and in rhythm to break down most defensive coverage schemes. He wins more with his mind at this point in his career, and his film from 2020 has a few different examples of that in action:

Even now, Dalton remains a potential threat as a runner. A team will not build an offense around what he can do with his legs but he is viable enough to keep backside edge defenders honest on zone read designs. For most teams Dalton can do in 2021 what he did for Dallas in 2020: Keep your season alive if the worst-case scenario unfolds.

Of course, Bears fans might consider this the worst-case scenario unfolding…

Yes, this is not what many in Chicago were hoping for. But given the Bears’ draft position, they would have needed to swing a big trade to get in position for one of the top quarterbacks in this draft cycle. Given their cap situation, attracting a bigger-named free agent might have been impossible. This at least gives Nagy a player who can run the system and be an upgrade over what was in place. Whether it is enough of an upgrade to move the needle and get the Bears deeper into the postseason remains to be seen.

Grading DL Leonard Williams’ new Giants deal: B-

The Giants have DI Leonard Williams the fifth-most guaranteed money at his position. But can he live up to it?

When the Giants placed the franchise tag on defensive lineman Leonard Williams, the team was on the hook for $19,351 million, as it was the second straight season the team had done so. But the idea was always to get a longer-term deal done, as placing more than 10% of your salary cap on one defensive lineman is not an ideal scenario. So, on Tuesday, the Giants made it official, signing Williams to a three-year, $63 million contract with a whopping $45 million guaranteed.

We don’t yet know the year-to-year cap numbers, but it’ll obviously provide relief in 2021 while prorating larger cap hits to 2022 and 2023. The guaranteed money is the fifth-highest among interior defensive linemen, behind only Aaron Donald, Fletcher Cox, Chris Jones, and DeForest Buckner. Very generous. The good news is that Williams proved last season that he’s a perfect fit in the Giants’ defensive concepts.

Had Williams been selected somewhere in the middle of the first round as opposed to sixth overall by the Jets in the 2015 draft, perhaps there would be a more even-handed assessment of his time with Gang Green. Though he never broke out as the kind of player who would merit that kind of draft capital, he did have a legitimate Pro Bowl season in 2016 with seven sacks, 55 pressures, and 48 stops as a hybrid player who alternated between tackle and end at 6-foot-5 and 302 pounds.

But it wasn’t until the Jets traded Williams to the Giants in October, 2019, that Williams saw his potential unleashed. Under defensive coordinator Patrick Graham and his evil array of multiple fronts, Williams has been allowed to move with a total attack mentality, using his quickness, power, and array of moves to confound enemy offensive lines to the tune of 11.5 sacks, 18 quarterback hits, 31 quarterback hurries, and 30 stops in 2020.

This sack of Russell Wilson in Week 13 is one of the most interesting you’ll see from last season. Williams (No. 99) starts off on the outside shoulder of left guard Jordan Simmons, then moves to the outside shoulder of left tackle Duane Brown. Then, the delayed spin move, and Williams winds up with Wilson as the prize. You don’t ordinarily see 300-pound guys doing stuff like this.

In a more static set of fronts, Williams may have regressed to “just another guy” status. And the lack of scheme-transcendence is a primary reason to ding the enormity of the deal.