These rivals know each other too well to expect a blowout.
Full disclosure: I very openly root for the New York Giants.
That’s important to note because I might be viewing their postseason through a glass half full perspective with the way things are rolling for the G-men.
I want them to keep winning, so if there’s a logical reason for why they can, I’ll find it. And this time, the reason is quite simple: familiarity. New York’s divisional playoff game Saturday will be the third time they play the Eagles in less than two months. If the Giants don’t win, they’ll cover the 7.5-point spread at the very least.
The Giants are road underdogs for the second week in a row, facing the same spread they failed to cover against Philly in Week 14. They were able to win outright as 3-point dogs in Minnesota, but that wasn’t nearly the upset a win this week would be. New York had similarly played the Vikings a previous time in recent weeks, and the first game provided a glimpse of how competitive the Giants could be in a rematch.
It’s a trend that’s worked out well for the Giants all season. They’ve played four teams multiple times this year and went 4-0 against the spread in the second games after going 2-2 in the first games. They also won outright twice in second games after going winless in the first games.
That undefeated record ATS in sequels includes New York’s season finale against the Eagles. The Giants opted to rest their starters while Philadelphia played its starters in a successful attempt to lock up the No. 1 seed. Yet, the Eagles only won by six after beating Giants starters by 26 points in their first meeting.
More than players getting accustomed to each other, that shows a coaching staff getting better acclimated to the other team, learning tendencies and making sure everyone is better prepared. Consider how the playoff games between division rivals went last week. The Dolphins and Ravens, playing with backup quarterbacks, very nearly knocked off huge favorites, giving the Bills and Bengals everything they could handle.
It goes deeper when you consider the interpersonal relationships and how those might inform a plan of attack. Giants head coach Brian Daboll was Jalen Hurts’ offensive coordinator and quarterback coach at Alabama. Eagles cornerback James Bradberry was a Giants cornerback the last two seasons.
So, of course, that familiarity works both ways. The Giants aren’t likely to have an easy time themselves. But given the stakes and how often these teams have prepared for one another in recent weeks, it’s more likely this game ends within a few points than it is to end in a complete blowout.
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