Tag: NFC Championship Odds

The San Francisco 49ers (13-3) host the Green Bay Packers (13-3) Sunday in the NFC Championship Game at Levi’s Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET and will follow the Tennessee Titans-Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship. We analyze the Packers-49ers odds and sports betting lines, while providing NFL betting tips and advice on this matchup.

Packers at 49ers: NFC Championship preview, betting trends and notes

• The 49ers come in with rest advantage after beating the Minnesota Vikings 27-10 in the Divisional Round last Saturday. The Packers beat the Seattle Seahawks 28-23 last Sunday night.
• San Francisco was 3-2 straight up with a rest advantage this season. It won those games by an average of 8.8 points and covered the spread of 5.5 points per game. Green Bay was 5-0 SU with a rest disadvantage, winning those games by an average of 7.4 PPG.
• The two teams met at Levi’s Stadium in Week 12, with the Niners claiming a 37-8 victory. Packers QB Aaron Rodgers was held to a season-low 104 passing yards with one touchdown pass and no interceptions. Lead RB Aaron Jones had just 38 rushing yards and no receptions.
• The Packers had won the previous two head-to-head meetings in 2015 (17-3) and 2018 (33-30).

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• The Divisional Round was San Francisco’s first time holding the opposition below 20 points since limiting the Packers to just eight points in Week 12.
• Green Bay’s 28 points scored against Seattle was its highest single-game total since putting up 31 against the New York Giants in Week 13.
• The Niners tied for fifth in the NFL in the regular season with 48 sacks. The Packers tied for 15th with 41 sacks. Both teams tied for 12th with 36 sacks given up.
• The Packers ranked second in the NFL this year with just 13 giveaways. The Niners were sixth with 27 takeaways, but they also committed 23 turnovers. The Packers had 25 takeaways.
• San Francisco was fourth in the league with an average time of possession of 31:51. Green Bay trailed slightly with an average TOP of 31:20.

Packers at 49ers: NFC Championship odds, betting lines and prediction

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET.

Prediction

49ers 23, Packers 20

Moneyline (?)

The 49ers (-345) are big moneyline favorites on the home field, but we’ll PASS on the moneyline wager as a $10 bet on San Francisco to win outright returns a profit of just $2.90. The Packers (+275) offer a sizable return on your investment as they ride a five-game winning streak, but the Niners are the team to back to win the NFC Championship.

Look to the spread for a better value play.

Against the Spread (?)

The PACKERS (+7.5, -115) are the play here as they’re being spotted more than a touchdown. They’ll need just to stay within 7 points in a loss or win outright for a $10 bet to return a profit of $8.70.

Before last week, the Niners were 0-6-1 against the spread when favored by 6 or more points. The Packers were underdogs only four times this year, going 3-1 ATS in those contests. All three of their losses were by at least 7 points (including the 29-point loss the Niners) but expect a much tighter contest with a Super Bowl trip on the line.

Over/Under (?)

Take the UNDER 44.5 (-106). The 49ers fell short of 45 combined points in just six of 17 games (including the Divisional Round) but the Packers have fallen shy of a 45-point total in 10 of 17 games. The season’s first head-to-head showdown played to a total of 45 points on the dot.

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Esten’s NFL betting record: 58-49

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