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The New York Yankees (56-38) and Tampa Bay Rays (45-47) meet Thursday in the finale of a 3-game AL East series at Tropicana Field. The opening pitch will be at 6:50 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Yankees lead 5-3
The 1st 2 games of this series have yielded a split. New York has collected just 2 extra-base hits and 5 runs over the 2 contests. The Yanks have scored 3 runs or less 9 times in their last 15 games.
Tampa Bay perhaps should be on the verge of a sweep in this series. After winning 5-3 Tuesday, the Rays were ousted 2-1 in Wednesday’s game, a contest that saw them collect 10 hits and 5 walks but go 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position.
Yankees at Rays projected starters
LHP Nestor Cortes vs. RHP Shane Baz
Cortes (4-7, 3.41 ERA) is making his 20th start. He has logged a 1.08 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 111 IP.
- Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 5-3 loss vs. Boston Red Sox Friday
- Career vs. Rays: 2-4, 4.19 ERA (62 1/3 IP, 29 ER), 54 H, 16 BB, 55 K in 14 appearances (9 starts)
Baz (0-1, 4.50 ERA) makes his 2nd start this season and 11th in his MLB career. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 6 IP.
- Owns a 4.08 ERA in 46 1/3 career innings
- Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 3-0 loss at Texas Rangers Friday
- Career vs. Yankees: 0-0, 2.45 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 5 H, 4 BB, 1 K in 1 start
- Was called up from Triple-A Durham on Friday for what marked his first MLB start since July 10, 2022
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Yankees at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:24 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yankees -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Rays -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Rays +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Yankees at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Rays 4, Yankees 3
Moneyline
Tampa Bay is 6-3 over its last 9 games at home.
Cortes has pitched well of late, but overall has been a bit fortunate by pitching through the lessened traffic of a .281 batting average on balls in play. He’s also benefited with a couple other minor luck factors. The Yankee port-sider carries a 5.63 road ERA (and 1.49 road WHIP) into this turn, and he was ineffective in a May 11 start at Tropicana.
Current Rays batters own an aggregate .912 OPS against him (per ESPN). And left-handers swing the Rays around to the better side of their platoon splits (.734 OPS vs. LHP; .661 OPS vs. RHP).
Baz has pitched better in a 10-game MLB stint than what showed in his surface ERA. The same holds true for his Triple-A work so far this season. He’s backed by a Rays bullpen that has been pitching better of late than what shows in a 4.56 ERA since June 17.
Consider a partial-unit play, because the Tampa side of the pitching equation pulls in little data. And look to FanDuel Sportsbook for the value pricing here. BACK THE RAYS (+108).
Run line/Against the spread
More juice equals less interest. PASS.
Over/Under
The total has gone Under in 6 of Tampa Bay’s last 9 games.
There is almost no lean either way here. The expected-vs.-actual production for both sides makes for little differential. But the sluggishness of a Yankee offense that has scored 4 runs or less in 7 of the team’s last 8 games is compelling. And there some slight lean toward Baz & company being undervalued in the Tampa mound metrics.
In series finales, New York has gone just 1-7 since June 13. Across those 8 games, the Yanks were held to an average of 3.25 runs.
Consider a partial-unit play on the UNDER 8 (-110).
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