ALCS Game 1: New York Yankees at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s New York Yankees at Houston Astros ALCS Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees and Houston Astros swing into the best-of-7 American League Championship Series Wednesday. First pitch at Minute Maid Park is slated for 7:37 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Regular-season series: Houston won 5-2

New York advanced to the ALCS by winning the AL East with a mark of 99-63 and an ALDS triumph over the Cleveland Guardians in 5 games. Dating back to the final week of the regular season, the Yankees have hit home runs in 9 straight games. Over that stretch, New York has registered 17 round-trippers.

The Astros won the AL West with an American League-best 106-56 record and then swept the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS in 3 games. Over an 8-game stretch including playoff and regular-season contests, Houston is 7-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 0.96 WHIP.

The Astros were 3-0 at home against the Yankees in the regular season with all 3 wins coming by fewer than 3 runs.

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Yankees at Astros projected starters

RHP Jameson Taillon vs. RHP Justin Verlander

Taillon made 32 regular-season starts. He went 14-5 with a 3.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 across 177 1/3 IP.

  • Has allowed a .924 aggregate OPS against current Houston batters
  • Owns a bloated 4.89 ERA over his last 151 IP away from Yankee Stadium
  • Made his postseason debut as a reliever in Friday’s extra-inning game against Cleveland with 2 runs allowed on 3 hits and 0 outs recorded

Verlander went 18-4 with a 1.75 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 175 IP over 28 regular-season starts.

  • Allowed 6 ER on 10 H over 4 IP vs. Seattle Oct. 11 last time out
  • Career postseason: 3.62 ERA in 32 games (31 starts)
  • Has held current Yankee batters to an aggregate .571 OPS in past meetings

Yankees at Astros odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:24 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Yankees +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Astros -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-140) | Astros -1.5 (+112)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Yankees at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 3, Astros 2

Moneyline

There is some mounting evidence that off-day rust is perhaps more corrosive than we might assume. The counter is that the Yanks played Tuesday and the traveling puts them at a disadvantage. However, I’ll take the club that had OF Aaron Judge and DH Giancarlo Stanton hit home runs last time out.

This isn’t a firm declaration New York will win against Verlander and Houston, but the price is worth pulling the lever and playing for some plus money.

BACK THE YANKEES (+165).

Run line/Against the spread

Actually prefer a Yankees +1.5 wager in this opener, but AVOID this RL action unless that tag for the visitors drops to -135.

Over/Under

The Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 Yankees-Astros games.

Taillon at times has the stuff to turn power into pop-ups, and Houston perhaps being rusty plays into an edge for Yankees hurlers. Verlander has an excellent history when pitching on long rest (2.89 ERA on 6 or more days of rest in his career, 0.63 ERA in 7 such games this season).

Take the UNDER 6.5 (+100).

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New York Yankees at Houston Astros Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Yankees at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (64-28) and Houston Astros (59-32) are playing a doubleheader on Thursday, with Game 2 starting at 6:40 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Astros lead 3-2. They won the most recent meeting, 2-1 at home on June 30.

The Yankees boast the best record in baseball, and though they took 2 of 3 from the Red Sox before the All-Star break, they ended the first half 3-5 in their last 8 games. They lead the majors in runs (497) and slugging percentage (.445).

The Astros alternated wins and losses in their final 6 games of the first half, going 3-3 in their last 6. But they were red hot previously, breaking off a stretch of 8 straight wins amid a 12-2 span.

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Yankees at Astros projected starters

RHP Domingo German vs. RHP Luis Garcia

German makes his 1st start of the season. In 2021, he went 4-5 with a 4.58 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 98 1/3 innings.

  • German has pitched 5 times against the Astros, making 2 starts. He is 0-1 with a 4.82 ERA in 18 2/3 innings against Houston.

Garcia (7-5, 3.65 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 88 2/3 IP.

  • Earned win in June 30 start vs. Yankees with 5 1/3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB and 6 K.
  • The Astros have won 5 straight games started by Garcia, a stretch in which he’s allowed 3 or fewer runs 4 times. He’s also pitched at least 5 innings in each of his last 5 starts.

Yankees at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:04 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Yankees +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-200) | Astros -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Yankees at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Astros 4

Money line

The Astros have the advantage with this pitching matchup, considering German is making his season debut. However, German was sharp while rehabbing at the AAA level, pitching 10 scoreless innings and allowing just 4 hits with 5 strikeouts.

With their bullpen and powerful lineup, I still like the YANKEES (+102) to win outright against the Astros.

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Run line/Against the spread

Since I’m taking the Yanks on the moneyline, I’d rather not take them to cover the spread at -200. It’s not worth the juiced line, and I think they’ll beat the Astros straight-up.

PASS.

Over/Under

The Yankees completely shut down the Red Sox in the final 2 games of their series, allowing 3 total runs and outscoring them 27-3. Their bats have been on fire, scoring at least 4 runs in each of their last 5 games and a total of 44 in that span.

The Astros haven’t been scoring at as high of a clip, but now that they’re well-rested out of the All-Star break, I think this game goes OVER 8.5 (-120) the total line.

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New York Yankees at Houston Astros Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Yankees at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (64-28) and Houston Astros (59-32) meet Thursday at Minute Maid Park for the first game of a doubleheader. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Astros Game 1 odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Series tied 2-2

The Yankees took 2 of 3 win from the Boston Red Sox prior to the All-Star break, although New York limped to the end of the first half with just a 3-5 record in the last 8 outings.

The Astros alternated losses and wins across the final 6 games prior to the break. Houston lost 4-3 Sunday in the most recent outing, but the Astros haven’t lost consecutive games since a 3-game skid from June 8-11.

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Yankees at Astros projected starters

RHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Cristian Javier

Montgomery (3-2, 3.26 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 inc102 IP.

  • Has a 1-2 record, 3.19 ERA with 38 K in 48 IP in 9 road starts.
  • Is 0-2 with a 2.86 ERA with a .212 opponent batting average and 26 K across 28 1/3 IP in 5 daytime outings.

Javier (6-5, 3.22 ERA) makes his 14th start, and 18th appearance overall. He has a 1.05 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 12.9 K/9 in 78 1/3 IP.

  • Is 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA and .180 OBA with 46 K in 46 IP in 8 home starts.
  • Has allowed just 7 ER, 13 H and 10 BB with 22 K and a .160 OBA across 24 1/3 IP in 4 daytime starts with no wins or losses.

Yankees at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:27 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Yankees +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-200) | Astros -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Yankees at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 4, Yankees 3

Money line

The ASTROS (-125) will be playing their first doubleheader of the season. The Yankees (+102) have posted a 2-2 record in the opener of a double dip so far this season.

Houston beat New York behind Javier on June 25 in the Bronx, winning 3-0. Look for the Astros to do it against at home.

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Run line/Against the spread

The Yankees +1.5 (-200) will cost you over 2 times your potential return if you don’t trust them straight up and want a little insurance. It’s not a recommended play. Just roll with the Astros straight up.

PASS.

Over/Under

The UNDER 8.5 (-120) is the play.

The Yankees have several players scrambling back from Los Angeles after appearing in the All-Star Game Tuesday. The Astros also had a handful of representatives. There wasn’t a lot of rest happening during the break. Expect the bats to be sluggish in this double dip opener.

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New York Yankees at Houston Astros odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Yankees at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (56-20) and Houston Astros (47-27) meet for a Thursday 6:10 p.m. ET game at Minute Maid Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

The Yankees and Astros played 4 games at Yankee Stadium last week. The top 2 clubs in the American League split that set, although Houston coughed up a couple of leads in the losses.

Astros pitching has caught fire of late. Despite a slew of recent games against both New York teams — with both owning top-10 OPS figures — Houston is 10-3 in its last 13 games with a 2.61 ERA, 0.99 WHIP over that stretch.

Yankees at Astros projected starters

RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Luis Garcia

Severino (4-2, 3.38 ERA) has registered a 1.07 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 72 IP in 13 starts.

  • A 2.0 home-runs-per-9 rate has led to a 4.61 ERA on the road (versus a 2.62 mark at home).
  • Facing Houston for a second straight start. Allowed 3 R, 5 H, 2 BB and 7 K in 6 IP in Sunday’s 4-2 loss at Yankee Stadium.

Garcia (5-5, 3.68 ERA) has logged a 1.07 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 71 IP over 13 starts.

  • His last start was June 22. Had his regular start Tuesday pushed back, though not due to injury.
  • Owns a 5.18 ERA, 1.9 HR/9 at home.

Yankees at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 2:16 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Yankees -125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros +102 (bet $102 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL): Yankees -1.5 (+133) | Astros +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Yankees at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Yankees 4

Money line

While New York is 23-5 in its last 28 games, they have played just 9 of those away from home. Over those 9 games, Yankee pitching has scuffled (4.96). Severino has struggled in general across all his road efforts.

With the one-off nature of this contest (due to schedule irregularities with the late start to the season), New York has the odd in-and-out, same-day schedule before heading to Cincinnati.

Figure Houston as more of an even-money proposition. TAKE THE ASTROS (+102).

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Run line/Against the spread

Too. Much. Juice. Leverage is drowned out; PASS.

Over/Under

Both clubs own sets of Statcast quality-of-contact numbers that indicate better days ahead with the bats.

Both sides sport bullpen numbers tamped down by some favorable rates around the margins. Houston’s relief corps owns a .266 batting average on balls in play; New York’s has registered an even better (luckier) .257 BABIP.

TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-125).

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New York Yankees at Houston Astros odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s New York Yankees at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (46-42) go for a three-game sweep of the Houston Astros (54-36) as the first half of the season wraps up Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET at Minute Maid Park (on TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Yankees lead 4-1

New York recorded back-to-back, 3-hit shutouts in the first two games of this series. RHP Gerrit Cole struck out 12 in Saturday’s complete-game 1-0 win a day after four hurlers combined to blank Houston 4-0.

RHP Jameson Taillon is Sunday’s projected starting pitcher for the Yankees. He is 4-4 with a 5.05 ERA (76 2/3 IP, 43 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 16 starts this season.

  • Last outing: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K in 12-1 victory at Seattle Mariners Tuesday
  • Career vs. Astros: 0-1, 2.25 ERA (8 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 1 start, a 3-1 home loss with Pittsburgh Pirates in 2016

LHP Framber Valdez is slated to start for Houston. He is 5-1 with a 2.86 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 8 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 6 R, 5 ER, 10 H, 2 BB, 6 K vs. visiting Oakland A’s Tuesday – Astros won 9-6
  • Career vs. Yankees: 0-1, 13.50 ERA (3 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 1 start, a 10-6 road loss in 2019

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Yankees at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Yankees +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Astros -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Yankees +1.5 (-165) | Astros -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Astros 5, Yankees 2

Money line (ML)

Back HOUSTON (-155) to WIN 1 UNIT. Since debuting in 2018, Valdez is 10-3 at home, including 2-0 in 4 starts this year and 3-1 in each of the previous two seasons.

The Astros usually win when Valdez is on the mound. They are 6-2 in his 8 starts this year and 7-4 in his last 11 starts overall.

Taillon might be on a 3-game win streak, but the Yankees are 7-9 in his 16 starts this year. Plus, he’s 1-3 on the road this season and was 1-2 away from home in 2020.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Bet HOUSTON -1.5 (+135) with a QUARTER-UNIT wager.

The Yankees are the second-worst ATS team in the majors, barely ahead of the Minnesota Twins (33-55).

ATS records: Yankees 34-54 | Astros 47-43

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 8.5 (-105) is the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager.

The Yankees are the best Under team in the AL and the first two games of this series cashed UNDER tickets.

Don’t worry about the Astros being the fourth-best Over club in the majors. They’re 1-6 O/U in their last 7 games.

O/U records: Yankees 39-47-2 | Astros 51-37-2

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New York Yankees at Houston Astros odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Yankees at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (45-42) and Houston Astros (54-35) continue their three-game set Saturday at Minute Maid Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York shut out Houston 4-0 in the first game of the series Friday as the Yankees racked up four doubles and D.J. LeMahieu continued his recent hot streak by hitting 2-for-5 with a double of his own and 2 RBIs.

Season series: Yankees lead 3-1.

RHP Gerrit Cole makes his 18th start for the Yankees. Cole is 8-4 with a 2.91 ERA (105 IP, 34 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 3 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 6 K in the Yankees’ 10-5 loss to the New York Mets Sunday.
  • Cole got a no-decision May 6 against the Astros with a stat line of 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 4 K in New York’s 7-4 loss.
  • vs. Astros on the current roster: 55 at-bats with a .236/.241/.400 slash line, 12/0 K/BB, 2 HR and 5 RBIs.

RHP Zack Greinke takes the hill for the Astros. Greinke is 8-2 with a 3.64 ERA (111 1/3 IP, 45 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 across 18 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 7 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 8 K in Houston’s 4-3 win Sunday at the Cleveland Indians.
  • Greinke also picked up a no-decision May 4 at the Yankees with 4 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 4 K in Houston’s 7-3 loss.
  • vs. Yankees on the current roster: 167 at-bats with a .251/.309/.401 slash line, 44/13 K/BB, 5 HR and 17 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Yankees at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:23 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Yankees -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Astros -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+150) | Astros +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Yankees 5, Astros 2

Money line (ML)

TAKE the YANKEES (-110) for 1 unit because this should be a get-right start for Cole and New York is getting some “sharp” action as they opened as a slight ‘dog at +100 before being steamed up to the current number.

The Yankees have four wins in their last five games and are starting to play their way out of a funk that’s led them to fall nine games behind the Boston Red Sox in the AL East standings.

Houston has the best lineup in baseball but if Cole can turn the game over to the bullpen with a lead or a tie then New York’s heavy edge in relief pitching should surface.

For instance, New York’s bullpen ranks in the top 10 of several advanced pitching categories including xFIP, SIERA, K-BB%, WAR, hard-hit rate and exit velocity.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I wouldn’t play either run line given the price points and starters on the mound. It’s hard to find a big enough edge between these two sides to justify a run line play.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-105) for a quarter unit – if at all – because I much prefer the New York side more than the total in Yankees-Astros.

However, the Over has cashed in five of Cole’s past six starts, in Greinke’s last eight home starts, and Houston is 13-5 O/U this season when Greinke takes the mound.

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New York Yankees at Houston Astros odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s New York Yankees at Houston Astros odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Yankees (44-42) and Houston Astros (54-34) play the first game of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Nestor Cortes is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees. He is 0-0 with a 1.29 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 across 21 IP over one start and seven relief appearances.

In his only start of the season, Cortes allowed 1 run in 3 1/3 innings against the New York Mets Sunday. He has given up just 3 earned runs all season and has struck out 29 batters in 21 innings. In 6 career innings against the Astros, he has allowed 11 earned runs and struck out four.

RHP Jake Odorizzi is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. He is 3-3 with a 3.70 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 over 41 1/3 IP spanning nine starts and a relief outing.

Odorizzi pitched at least 6 innings only once this season, which was his last time out (6 innings, 1 ER). The Astros are 3-1 in his last four starts, with two of the three wins decided by at least 5 runs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Yankees at Astros odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Yankees +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Astros -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Yankees +1.5 (-185) | Astros -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under: 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Astros 4, Yankees 3

Money line (ML)

The Astros had won six games in a row before losing 2-1 to the Oakland Athletics Thursday. They held their opponent to 3 or fewer runs in six of their last seven games and still lead the majors with 5.55 runs scored per game.

The Yankees continue to struggle despite winning three of their last four games; they’ve dropped eight of their last 12 overall. Bet the ASTROS (-130) to win outright.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Astros haven’t been winning in dominant fashion the way they were in June, going just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. I still think they’ll find a way to beat the Yankees with Cortes on the mound as their opener, but New York will keep it close enough to cover the spread.

I would either PASS on the spread or make a small wager on the YANKEES +1.5 (-185) to cover but the reward isn’t great.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total finished the projection in four of the Astros’ last five games. The Yankees have been trending in the opposite direction with six of their last eight outings going Over, but I don’t see a major offensive outburst coming for either team Friday.

Bet the UNDER 9 (-105) tonight.

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