The Boston Red Sox (88-67) host the New York Yankees (88-67) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Fenway Park . First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Yankees vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
New York won the first two games of this set by a combined score of 13-6 and snapped Boston’s seven-game winning streak in Friday’s series opener.
Season series: Red Sox lead 10-8.
LHP Jordan Montgomery makes his 29th start for the Yankees. He is 6-6 with a 3.55 ERA (149 2/3 IP, 59 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 7-1, with 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K Tuesday against the Texas Rangers.
- Montgomery is 0-2 with a 3.63 ERA (22 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 1.16 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB through four starts against Boston this season.
- vs. Red Sox on the current roster (144 PA): 4.41 FIP with a .260 batting average (BA), .309 wOBA, .400 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 19.4 K% and 86.4 mph exit velocity (EV).
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez is Boston’s projected starter. He is 11-8 with a 4.97 ERA (146 2/3 IP, 81 ER), 2.6 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 29 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 5 K in Boston’s 6-3 home win over the New York Mets Tuesday.
- Rodriguez is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA (18 IP, 6 ER), 14 H, 4 BB and 20 K through four starts against New York this season.
- vs. Yankees on the current roster (223 PA): 5.71 FIP with a .263 BA, .371 wOBA, .537 xSLG, 27.8 K% and 91.2 mph EV.
Yankees at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Yankees -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Red Sox -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Yankees -1.5 (+135) | Red Sox +1.5 (-170)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Prediction
Yankees 6, Red Sox 3
Money line (ML)
I’m riding with the public and BETTING the YANKEES (-110) for 1 unit. According to Pregame.com, more than 70% of the cash wagered is on the Red Sox while nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on New York at the time of writing.
Typically, in sports betting, it’s wiser to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.
However, in this case, the oddsmakers are reacting to the market action by making New York’s money line cheaper. It’s a little extraordinary but this is “reverse line movement” (RLM) against what’s presumed to be “sharp” money.
While it’s one thing if the betting public favors the Yankees despite Montgomery’s winless record against the Red Sox and Rodriguez’s undefeated record vs. New York this season, it’s another thing that the sportsbooks are moving the line toward the Yankees despite all the pro-Red Sox money entering the market.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a heavy “lean” toward the Yankees +1.5 (-220) on the alternate run line because I could hear an argument to throw New York’s run line with another similarly priced game for an even- or plus-money payout.
More importantly, the Yankees are 17-4 ATS as road underdogs and the Red Sox are just 31-35 ATS as home favorites. On the other hand, New York is 28-41 ATS vs. AL East team while Boston is 37-35 ATS in divisional matchups.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-105) for a tiny wager because we also have RLM for the total of Yankees-Red Sox.
This game opened with a 10-run total but is ticking down despite two-thirds of the bets placed being on the Over. It’s always a red flag when sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.
Also, these teams are tied for the first AL Wild Card seed and both are trying to hold off the Toronto Blue Jays for their place in the playoff play-in game.
Since there’ll most likely be a playoff-like atmosphere to this game, I figure it plays Under more often than not. Plus, New York is 9-18 O/U when Montgomery gets the start and the Under cashed in three of his four starts against Boston in 2021.
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