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World Series Game 5: LA Dodgers at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s LA Dodgers at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The LA Dodgers and New York Yankees meet in Game 5 of the best-of-7 World Series Wednesday at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Dodgers vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Dodgers lead 3-1

The Yankees staved off elimination in Game 4 with an emphatic 11-4 victory. New York fell into a 2-0 hole, as Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman launched a 2-run HR in the top of the 1st inning off of RHP Luis Gil, quieting the crowd for a while.

Freeman set a MLB record with a HR in each of his past 6 World Series games dating back to 2021 when he was with the Atlanta Braves. He is the first player in Major League history to homer in the first 4 games of a single World Series, too.

However, the crowd came alive in the bottom of the 3rd, as SS Anthony Volpe delivered a go-ahead grand slam to make it 5-2. L.A. was able to close it 5-4 in the top of the 5th, but the Yankees went wild with 5 in the bottom of the 8th to secure the victory and avoid the embarrassing sweep. Now, New York tries to force the series back to Southern California.

Volpe ended up with 4 RBI, and he was joined in the homer club by C Austin Wells, who launched a 2-run HR in the bottom of the 6th off of RHP Landon Knack. 2B Gleyber Torres got in on the fun with a 3-run HR in the bottom of the 8th.

Dodgers at Yankees projected starters

RHP Jack Flaherty vs. RHP Gerrit Cole

Flaherty (13-7, 3.17 ERA) made 28 regular-season starts. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 162 IP with the Detroit Tigers and Dodgers.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 6 K in 6-3 home win in 10 innings in Game 1 vs. Yankees
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): 8-3, 2.94 ERA (88 2/3 IP, 29 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 22 BB, 108 K, .210 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 16 starts
  • Career vs. Yankees (including ’24 World Series): 1-0, 1.59 ERA (11 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 9 H, 3 BB, 10 K in 1 regular-season start and 1 postseason start
  • 2024 postseason record: 1-2, 6.10 ERA, 20 2/3 IP, 14 K, 1.35 WHIP, 14 K in 4 starts
  • Career postseason record: 2-5, 4.73 ERA, 45 2/3 IP, 45 K, 1.36 WHIP in 9 appearances (8 starts)

Cole (8-5, 3.41 ERA) made 17 regular-season starts. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 95 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 6-3 road loss in 10 innings in Game 1 vs. Dodgers
  • 2024 home splits (regular season): 3-2, 4.31 ERA (48 IP, 23 ER), 1.27 WHIP, .240 OBA in 9 starts
  • 2024 postseason record: 1-0, 2.82 ERA, 22 1/3 IP, 16 K, 1.30 WHIP in 4 starts
  • Career postseason record: 11-6, 2.91 ERA, 126 2/3 IP, 150 K, 1.01 WHIP in 21 starts

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Dodgers at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:38 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Yankees -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers +1.5 (-165) | Yankees -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Dodgers at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Dodgers 3

Moneyline

The YANKEES (-150) are a good play behind Cole, as New York tries to force this series back to Southern California, extending its season.

The Yankees were finally able to get some decent late-inning pitching work, while using the long ball to get their first victory in this series.

This is exactly why the Yankees added Cole to the pitching rotation a few years back. The California kid will try and force this thing back to his native Golden State.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a little more adventurous, consider YANKEES -1.5 (+140) to get the job done.

This isn’t likely to be like Game 4, where there were a lot of runs scored in the later innings. It’s always tough to win that championship-clinching last game, so the Dodgers +1.5 (-165) aren’t the play. New York has a little confidence back after Game 4, and it should build on that and add a little more swagger in Game 5.

Over/Under

Over/Under 8 should be avoided, as I expect the total to come down right on the number.

If anything, the slight lean would be to the Under. After a pair of 4-2 decisions in Games 2 and 3, we had an Over in Game 4. We should get back to the solid pitching and some tightness at the plate, as the intensity ratchets up the deeper we go into the series.

The best move is to PASS, and just focus on the moneyline or run line.

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World Series Game 4: LA Dodgers at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s LA Dodgers at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The LA Dodgers and New York Yankees meet in Game 4 of the best-of-7 World Series Tuesday at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Dodgers vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Dodgers lead 3-0

The Dodgers pushed the Yankees to the brink of elimination with a 4-2 victory in Game 3 Monday night in the Bronx. It was a well-pitched game, with each team collecting 5 hits apiece. The Dodgers were +131 underdogs and the Under (8) cashed.

Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman came up with the big blow, smacking a 2-run HR in the top of the 1st inning as he zeroes in on World Series MVP honors. It was enough to back SP Walker Buehler, who twirled 5 scoreless innings before turning it over to the bullpen.

Yankees LF Alex Verdugo made things interesting with a 2-run, 2-out HR in the bottom of the 9th inning off of RP Michael Kopech, but that’s as close as the Bronx Bombers could get. Yankees CF Aaron Judge did not rise as he was hitless again with a walk and a strikeout, slipping to .140 (6-for-43) in the postseason, including 1-for-12 in the Series.

Dodgers at Yankees projected starters

TBD vs. RHP Luis Gil

The Dodgers are expected to go with a bullpen game and they haven’t named a starter as of this publishing. Possibilities include LHP Anthony Banda (1 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 3 games of this World Series) and RHP Ryan Brasier (1 IP, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K in 1 game of this WS).

Gil (15-7, 3.50 ERA) made 29 regular-season starts. He had a 1.19 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 151 1/3 innings.

  • Last start (only career postseason appearance): No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 8-6 win at Cleveland Guardians in Game 4 of ALCS Oct. 18
  • 2024 home splits (regular season): 6-4, 3.57 ERA (75 2/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 11.1 K/9 .184 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 15 starts
  • Career vs. Dodgers: 1 start in 2024, no-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 1 BB, 5 K in 6-4 home win June 9

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Dodgers at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Tuesday at 9:01 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Yankees -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers +1.5 (+165) | Yankees -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Dodgers at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 4, Dodgers 3

Moneyline

The YANKEES (-145) have to have a little bit of pride, right?

New York heads into this game with its backs against the wall. It’s a tall order trying to dig out of an 3-0 hole. It sounds cliche, but the team will need to take it one game at a time.

We saw the Edmonton Oilers in a similar spot in this past year’s Stanley Cup Final vs. the Florida Panthers. Down 3-0 in the best-of-7 series, the Oilers fought back to force a Game 7 before losing 2-1 in the deciding game on the road.

The home crowd at Yankee Stadium should spur on the Bronx Bombers Tuesday night, and Gil pitches them to see another day.

Run line/Against the spread

AVOID.

I’m not going to bother in hoping the Yankees -1.5 (+140) win by at least 2 runs.

BetMGM Sportsbook is offering an alternate line of Yankees +1.5 (-250), but that is way too pricey. You can’t risk 2½ times the potential return as that’s not smart sports gambling.

If you like the Yankees, just bet them straight up.

Over/Under

UNDER 8.5 (-110) might be the best play on the board.

The last win is the hardest to get in a championship series. You can expect both teams to be a little tight. We saw some signs of that in Game 3 as the total went Under despite a pair of 2-run homers in the game.

We also had a 4-2 score in Game 2 as the Under cashed. Let’s go UNDER again, even though it’s a little disconcerting finalizing that pick before the Dodgers announce their starter.

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World Series Game 3: LA Dodgers at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s LA Dodgers at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The LA Dodgers visit the New York Yankees as the World Series moves to Gotham for Game 3. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is slated for 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Dodgers vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Dodgers lead 2-0; LA took 2 of 3 games from the Yankees in the regular season

Los Angeles got the better starting pitching in Games 1 and 2 at Dodger Stadium. Since falling behind the San Diego Padres 2 games to 1 in the NLDS, the Dodgers have now filed 8 wins against just 2 losses. 1B Freddie Freeman backed up his big Game 1 grand slam with another HR in Game 2. He’s part of an LA attack that has banged out 20 HRs in the last 10 games.

DH Shohei Ohtani’s left shoulder may be sore, but the Dodgers star is expected to play Game 3. Manager Dave Roberts said Ohtani was cleared to play after being examined Sunday in Southern California, a day after he suffered a partial dislocation of his left shoulder in an attempted steal of second base. If you’re curious, the BetMGM Sportsbook odds that he hits a HR in Game 3 are +350 (-500 that he doesn’t).

New York has to hope a change of scenery will reinvigorate its offense. The Yankees went just 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position over Games 1 and 2. CF Aaron Judge has been most emblematic of New York’s hitting woes. Over the club’s last 5 games, Judge is 3-for-22 with a walk and 13 strikeouts. BetMGM Sportsbook has him at +240 to homer Monday (-300 that he doesn’t).

Dodgers at Yankees projected starters

RHP Walker Buehler vs. RHP Clarke Schmidt

Buehler (1-6, 5.38 ERA) made 16 starts in the regular season. He registered a 1.55 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 75 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 8-0 win at New York Mets Oct. 16 (NLCS Game 3)
  • Owns a 3.25 ERA across 88 2/3 career postseason innings
  • Has never faced the Yankees

Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) also had a 16-start regular season. He authored a 1.18 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 85 1/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 7-5 loss vs. Cleveland Guardians Oct. 17 (ALCS Game 3)
  • Has never faced the Dodgers

Dodgers at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Sunday at 7:55 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Dodgers +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Yankees -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers +1.5 (-175) | Yankees -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Dodgers at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 6, Dodgers 5

Moneyline

New York is 4-1 over its last 5 home games, and with what the Yankees showed after losses to the Kansas City Royals in the ALDS and Cleveland Guardians in the ALCS they are the lean for getting this game.

Albeit in a small sample size, but Buehler was torched on the road in the regular season (6.53 ERA, 1.71 WHIP in 30 1/3 IP). Schmidt has some iffy outings going back into mid-September, but analytics would say he’s been a bit unfairly dinged across those recent starts. And the New York bullpen does get a reset after Sunday’s travel day.

The lean is on the Yanks cranking out good, patient at-bats and getting back in this Series. But the pricing here makes them a small lean. Consider a partial-unit play on NEW YORK (-145).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS: No interest here.

Over/Under

The strongest play in this match-up is the OVER 8.5 (-115).

Both starters are taking to the mound on long rest. That’s been a particular issue for Schmidt, who has yielded a long-rest (6-plus days) OPS of .849 over his career.

Mix in the bullpens being a bit “seen” so far, and batters figure to get fewer surprises. The Dodgers filed a .924 OPS across 3 games at Citi Field in the NLCS, and they own a .926 OPS across their last 13 road games.

Dating back into September, the Yanks have filed solid run totals in returns to Yankee Stadium after being on the road. That includes scoring 6 runs against Kansas City Oct. 5 and 5 runs vs. Cleveland Oct. 14.

TAKE THE OVER 8.5 (-115).

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World Series Game 2: New York Yankees at LA Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Yankees at LA Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees and LA Dodgers meet in Game 2 of the best-of-7 World Series Saturday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Dodgers lead 1-0

L.A. won a wild one in Game 1 Friday 6-3 as -113 home favorites with the Over (8.5) hitting thanks to 1B Freddie Freeman’s walk-off grand slam in the 10th inning.

The Yankees did everything they could to steal Game 1 on the road, but they didn’t have the pitching to keep the Dodgers’ mighty bats muzzled long enough. DH Giancarlo Stanton hit a 2-run homer 412 feet into the night to give the Yanks a 2-1 lead in the 6th inning. They’d relinquish it and ultimately fold in extras.

Freeman is being heralded alongside Kirk Gibson, who hit a game-winning homer in the 1988 World Series while battling 2 hamstring injuries. Freeman, hobbled by a sprained ankle, hit the first pitch he saw in the 10th inning into the same vicinity as Gibson’s for the first walk-off grand slam in World Series history.

Yankees at Dodgers projected starters

LHP Carlos Rodon vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Rodon went 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 175 innings over 32 regular-season starts. He’s 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 0.6 BB/9 and 13.8 K/9 in 14 1/3 postseason innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-2 win in 10 innings at Cleveland Guardians in Game 5 of ALCS Oct. 19
  • 3 starts vs. LA in 2022: 1-1, 3.71 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 18 K in 17 IP

Yamamoto went 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 90 innings over 18 regular-season starts. He’s 1-0 with a 5.11 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 12 1/3 postseason innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 10-2 win at New York Mets in Game 4 of NLCS Oct. 17
  • 1 career start vs. Yankees: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 2-1 win in 11 innings June 7 at Yankee Stadium

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Yankees at Dodgers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 1:16 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Yankees +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Dodgers -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-185) | Dodgers -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Yankees at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 3, Dodgers 2

Moneyline

BET YANKEES (+120).

Yankees OF Aaron Judge has to get it going, and there are no excuses. He’s hitting between possibly the best hitter in baseball in OF Juan Soto and the ALCS MVP in Stanton. Judge is hitting .167 with 2 homers and 6 RBIs over 36 postseason ABs.

What tilts the pendulum for me, though, is Rodon. Dodgers OF Mookie Betts is just 1-for-19 (.053) against him lifetime. Freeman is just 1-for-7 (.143), OF Teoscar Hernandez is 1-for-9 (.111), and DH Shohei Ohtani and INF Max Muncy are just 1-for-7 combined (.143)

Rodon was great in his last 2 postseason starts with 15 K’s over 10 2/3 innings. The YANKEES (+120) respond.

Run line/Against the spread

Yamamoto made 1 great start at Yankee Stadium this season, and he allowed just 2 hits over 7 shutout frames. Who got him, you ask? Judge hit a double. Again, he has to surface in this game.

Take AARON JUDGE OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-135).

Over/Under

The wind was blowing out pretty fairly in Game 1, and it took a heroic moment for that Over to hit. Believe me, I was among the Over bettors sweating it out. The wind is blowing out at a milder, 6-mph pace Saturday. The bats were quiet early, possibly settling in to the big stage.

Keeping in mind, I bet the Over in Game 1, I think that cash was a fluke. Both pitchers have good history against each team, and they’ve performed well in the playoffs.

Take the UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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World Series Game 1: New York Yankees at LA Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Yankees at LA Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees and LA Dodgers meet in Game 1 of the best-of-7 World Series Friday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Dodgers won 2-1

These teams met in a 3-game series at Yankee Stadium June 7-9. The Dodgers won June 7 as a moderate favorite (-160) by a 2-1 score. On June 8, the Dodgers routed the Yankees 11-3 as a slight ‘dog (-102) as the Over (8.5) hit, and New York salvaged the series finale with a 6-4 victory as an underdog (+120) as the Over (7) again connected.

The Yankees won in 4 games in the ALDS against the Kansas City Royals, although 2 of the games were decided by a single run, and the other 2 games were decided by 2 runs. The Under cashed in 3 of those 4 games.

In the ALCS, New York topped Cleveland in 5 games, although each of the 5 games were decided by 3 or fewer runs. The Over went 3-1-1 in the ALCS.

For the Dodgers, they were able to shake off the San Diego Padres in the NLDS, erasing a 2-1 series deficit. The Over went 3-1-1 in those games.

In the NLCS, LA topped the other New York team, the Mets, with 2 shutout victories, while winning in 6 games. LA managed 8 or more runs in 4 of those games, including 10 runs in both Games 4 and 6. The Over cashed in all 6 of the outings.

Yankees at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Jack Flaherty

Cole (8-5, 3.41 ERA) made 17 regular-season starts. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 95 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 6-3 home victory vs. Guardians in Game 2 of ALCS Oct. 15
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): 5-3, 2.49 ERA (47 IP, 13 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 12 BB, 51 K, .198 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 8 starts
  • Career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 4-2, 5.01 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 8 starts
  • Didn’t face LA in 2024 regular season
  • 2024 postseason: 1-0, 3.31 ERA (16 1/3 IP), 1.53 WHIP, 12 K in 3 starts
  • Career postseason: 11-6, 2.98 ERA (120 2/3 IP), 1.03 WHIP, 146 K in 20 starts

Flaherty (13-7, 3.17 ERA) made 28 regular-season starts. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 162 innings with the Tigers and Dodgers.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 8 ER, 8 H (1 HR), 4 BB, 0 K in 12-6 loss at Mets in Game 5 of NLCS Oct. 18
  • 2024 home splits (regular season): 5-4, 3.44 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 16 BB, 86 K, .238 OBA in 12 starts
  • Career vs. Yankees (regular season): Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 1 start, an 11-4 home win July 1, 2023, with St. Louis Cardinals
  • Didn’t face Yankees in 2024 regular season
  • 2024 postseason: 1-2, 7.04 ERA (15 1/3 IP), 1.43 WHIP, 8 K in 3 starts
  • Career postseason: 2-5, 4.91 ERA (40 1/3 IP), 1.39 WHIP, 39 K in 7 starts (8 appearances)

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Yankees at Dodgers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 9:35 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Yankees +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Dodgers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-200) | Dodgers -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Yankees at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Dodgers 4

Moneyline

The YANKEES (+105) are worth a look in the series opener on the road as they look to seize home-field advantage.

The pitching scales are tipped in favor of New York, as Cole is much more consistent than Flaherty. The latter has a dismal 7.04 ERA in 3 starts during the postseason so far.

The Dodgers (-125) won 2 of 3 games at Yankee Stadium back in June, but Cole didn’t appear in that series.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re on the conservative side, backing Yankees +1.5 (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return. That’s a little too expensive, although if you were to fold it into a multi-leg parlay it is perfectly acceptable then.

However, as a standalone wager, backing New York on the run line is too much risk and not enough reward.

AVOID, and look to the moneyline instead.

Over/Under

OVER 8.5 (-110) is a solid play in Game 1, but go with a half-unit play at most.

There is some risk with the consistent Cole on the bump for the Yankees. However, the Dodgers cashed the Over in all 6 games with the Mets in the NLCS, while the total has gone high at a 9-1-1 clip in the postseason so far.

For the Yankees, the Over went 3-1-1 in the series with Cleveland, while splitting 4-4-1 in the 2024 postseason.

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ALCS Game 5: New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 5 of the best-of-7 ALCS Saturday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

ALCS: Yankees lead 3-1; Yankees won regular-season series 4-2

After a wild Game 3, it seemed like nothing could top it. But, Game 4 was pretty wild in its own right.

The Yankees had a 6-2 lead at the 7th-inning stretch, but the Guardians posted 3 in the bottom of the frame to make things interesting. A squibber to the pitcher ended up being too hard to handle, and Cleveland tied it up heading to the 9th in front of a raucous crowd at Progressive Field.

However, the Yankees managed to get to closer Emmanuel Clase for a 2nd straight night as he allowed 2 ER and 3 H in his inning of work to take the loss in Jose Mesa-esque fashion when it mattered most.

DH Giancarlo Stanton had a titanic 3-run HR in the top of the 6th for New York’s biggest hit, while 1B Josh Naylor collected 3 RBIs and 3B Jose Ramirez drove in a pair of runs for Cleveland’s big blows.

Now, New York is just a win away from punching its ticket to the World Series, while Cleveland is on the brink of elimination, needing 3 straight victories.

Yankees at Guardians projected starters

LHP Carlos Rodon vs. RHP Tanner Bibee

Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA) made 32 regular-season starts. He had a 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 175 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H (1 solo HR), 0 BB, 9 K in 5-2 home victory in Game 1 of ALCS Monday
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): 7-7, 4.69 ERA (94 IP, 49 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 30 BB, 104 K, .261 opponents’ batting average in 18 starts
  • Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 8-5, 2.81 ERA (125 IP, 39 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 8.9 K/9 in 19 starts (21 appearances)
  • Didn’t face Cleveland in 2024 regular season
  • 2024 postseason: 1-1, 4.66 ERA (9 2/3 IP), 1.03 WHIP, 16 K in 2 starts
  • Career postseason: 1-2, 6.57 ERA (12 1/3 IP), 1.46 WHIP, 19 K in 3 starts and 1 relief appearance

Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) made 31 regular-season starts. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 173 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 1 1/3 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 6-3 road loss in Game 2 of ALCS Tuesday
  • 2024 home splits (regular season): 5-4, 4.15 ERA (89 IP, 41 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 22 BB, 99 K in 16 starts
  • Didn’t face New York in 2024 regular season
  • Career postseason: 0-1, 3.60 ERA (10 IP), 1.70 WHIP, 11 K in 3 starts in 2024

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Yankees at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Yankees -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Guardians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Guardians +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 4, Yankees 3

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (+100) are a solid play in this elimination game. Either way, it is likely to be the final game of the season in Cleveland barring a miraculous comeback in this series.

Cleveland’s offense has risen to the occasion at Progressive Field in the 2 games so far, especially in the late innings, but the bullpen has let it down at times, especially in Game 4. That’s the risk here.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a super conservative bettor, GUARDIANS +1.5 (-175) is not priced out of line for some insurance. Ultimately, it might be the better play, but if you like Cleveland, the better value is playing it straight up behind its ace Bibee.

Over/Under

UNDER 7.5 (-120) is the lean in Game 4, but go lightly.

With Cleveland’s season on the line, we could see the offense tighten up a bit. And, for New York, it could struggle to plate as many runs, too. It’s always toughest to get that final win in a series. Look for good pitching, solid defense and runs to be at a premium.

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ALCS Game 4: New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 4 of the best-of-7 ALCS Friday. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

ALCS: Yankees lead 2-1; Yankees won regular-season series 4-2

New York dropped its first game of the series with a 7-5 tenth-inning loss Thursday as a -102 underdog. CF Aaron Judge (1-for-5, 2 RBIs) and DH Giancarlo Stanton (1-for-3, 1 RBI) hit back-to-back 8th-inning homers off All-Star RP Emmanuel Clase to give the Yankees a temporary 4-3 lead.

Trailing 5-3, Guardians RF Jhonkensy Noel hit a pinch-hit 2-run HR with 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th to extend the game for Cleveland. With 2 outs and 1 on in the bottom of the 10th, 1B David Fry cashed Guardians (-106) tickets with a walk-off 2-run homer to left-center field.

Yankees at Guardians projected starters

RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Gavin Williams

Gil (15-7, 3.50 ERA) made 29 regular-season starts. The rookie had a 1.19 WHIP, 4.6 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 151 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 9-4 home setback against Pittsburgh Pirates Sept. 28
  • 2024 vs. Guardians: 0-0, 1 home start (Aug. 20), 3 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 6 BB, 3 K in 9-5 loss in 12 innings
  • Career vs. Guardians: 0-1, 6.14 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 6 H, 10 BB, 9 K in 2 starts

Williams (3-10, 4.86 ERA) made 16 regular-season starts. He had a 1.37 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 76 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K in 2-1 loss at St. Louis Cardinals Sept. 22
  • Career vs. Yankees: 0-1, 1 road start (Aug. 22), 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K in 6-0 loss

Yankees at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Yankees -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Guardians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+145) | Guardians +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Guardians 3

Moneyline

PASS.

There is better value on the Yankees’ run line.

Run line/Against the spread

BET YANKEES -1.5 (+145).

New York has had a clear advantage in this series, scoring 5 or more runs in each game, while Cleveland has scored 3 or fewer in 2 of the 3.

Cleveland was able to rally behind its home crowd Thursday, but it will be unable to do the same Friday. With Gil on the mound, expect the Guardians to struggle on offense.

Each of New York’s last 3 wins have come by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 7.5 (-115).

The Yankees have a powerful offense. They’ve scored 5 or more runs in 3 straight games and are 5-3-1 O/U in their last 9.

Cleveland may not be able to keep up Friday, but expect it to score enough to tip the total. It has scored 3 or more runs in 4 of its last 5 games.

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ALCS Game 3: New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 3 of their best-of-7 ALCS Thursday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

ALCS: Yankees lead 2-0; Yankees won regular-season series 4-2

The Yankees doubled up the Guardians 6-3 in Game 2 Tuesday, cashing as a moderate favorite (-159) with the Over (7) cashing behind Yankees SP Gerrit Cole (4 1/3 IP, 2 ER) and 4 relievers (4 2/3 IP, 1 ER). New York led wire to wire, with CF Aaron Judge swatting a 2-run HR and finishing with 3 RBIs.

While New York was just 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position in Game 2, Cleveland went 0-for-7 RISP.

The Guardians received a solo HR from 3B Jose Ramirez in the top of the 9th, but he is just still 4-for-24 (.167) with a 2B, 2 solo HRs, 2 RBIs, 4 runs and an SB in 7 postseason games.

Yankees at Guardians projected starters

RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. LHP Matthew Boyd

Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) made 16 regular-season starts. He had a 1.18 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 85 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-2 win at Kansas City Royals in Game 3 of the ALDS Oct. 9 — only 2024 postseason appearance
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): 3-3, 1.39 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 17 BB, 46 K, .211 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 8 starts
  • Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 1-0, 3.52 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.89 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 in 3 starts (4 appearances)
  • 2024 vs. Guardians (regular season): 1 start, win, 5 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 3 H, 5 BB, 7 K in 3-2 road victory April 13
  • Career postseason: 0-2, 6.43 ERA (7 IP, 5 ER), 1.71 WHIP in 1 start and 3 relief appearances

Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA) made 8 regular-season starts. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 7-3 home victory in Game 5 of the ALDS vs. Detroit Tigers Saturday
  • 2024 home splits (regular season): 1-1, 2.25 ERA (20 IP, 5 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 4 BB, 23 K in 4 starts
  • 2024 vs. Yankees (regular season): 1 start, no-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H (2 HR), 4 BB, 2 K in 9-5 road win in 12 innings Aug. 20
  • 2024 postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA , 6 2/3 IP, 3 BB, 10 K, 1.20 WHIP in 2 starts

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Yankees at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:01 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Yankees -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+150) | Guardians +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -125 | U: +105)

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Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 3, Yankees 2

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-105) are worth playing lightly in Game 3 as the home ‘dog as they look to keep their season alive.

Yes, they wouldn’t be eliminated with a loss, but going into a 3-0 hole in a series against the powerful Yankees is basically a death knell.

Cleveland catches a slight break against Schmidt, certainly not the strongest starter in the New York pitching arsenal, and the Yankees were just 21-23 in the regular season vs. left-handers.

Run line/Against the spread

The Guardians +1.5 (-185) will set you back nearly 2 times the potential return. That’s too much risk and not enough reward.

Cleveland should play with some urgency returning home after falling into a 2-0 hole. If you like the Guardians, just play them straight up — on the moneyline.

PASS on the spread.

Over/Under

UNDER 7 (+105) is a solid value at plus-money in Game 3.

We should see a decent pitching performance from the home team as the Yankees struggled against southpaws. Of course, Boyd didn’t go terribly deep into 2 starts for manager Stephen Vogt in the ALDS.

The Over is 3-0-1 in the past 4 games for Cleveland, but just 3-2-2 in 7 postseason games. New York has cashed Unders at a 3-2-1 pace in 6 playoff outings.

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ALCS Game 2: Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees play Game 2 of the best-of-7 ALCS Tuesday. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Yankees lead 1-0 | Regular-season series: Yankees won 4-2

The Yankees won the Monday opener 5-2 as -161 home favorites while the total (7) pushed. RF Juan Soto and DH Giancarlo Stanton each homered, and SP Carlos Rodón allowed 1 ER on 3 hits and no walks with 9 K’s to get his 1st postseason win.

The Guardians threw 5 wild pitches and walked 9 batters in Monday’s setback. Cleveland has lost 7 of the last 9 meetings with the Yankees, including 3 straight.

Guardians at Yankees projected starters

RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Gerrit Cole

Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) made 31 regular-season starts. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 173 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 5-4 win at Detroit Tigers Thursday in Game 4 of ALDS
  • 2024 postseason stats: 0-0, 2.08 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 2 starts
  • 2024 regular-season road stats: 7-4, 2.76 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 15 starts
  • Career vs. Yankees: 0-0, 1 road start (May 2, 2023), 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 4-2 road loss in 2nd MLB start

Cole (1-0, 3.00 ERA) made 17 regular-season starts. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 95 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 3-1 victory at Kansas City Royals Thursday in Game 4 of ALDS
  • 2024 postseason stats: 1-0, 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 in 2 starts
  • 2024 regular-season home stats: 3-2, 4.31 ERA (48 IP, 23 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 9 starts
  • 2024 vs. Guardians: 1-0, 1 home start (Aug. 22), 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 5 BB, 2 K in 6-0 win
  • Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 7-2, 2.82 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 11 starts
  • Career postseason stats vs. Guardians: 4-0, 1.98 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.77 WHIP, 13.5 K/9 in 4 starts

Guardians at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:33 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Yankees -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-160) | Yankees -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Guardians at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 3, Guardians 2

Moneyline

The Yankees (-175) most likely win with Cole taking the mound in Game 2, but the bid-ask difference is too high to recommend a play.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

The Yankees are averaging just 3.8 runs per game this postseason and already covered a -1.5 run line against Cleveland in Game 1.

We know that Cole will make it difficult for Cleveland to score runs — as he has in the postseason throughout his career — but it’s unlikely the Yankees will score enough to cover as run-line favorites for a 3rd straight game.

BET GUARDIANS +1.5 (-160).

Over/Under

This total is low, and I normally wouldn’t recommend betting the Under on a key number like 7. However, with Bibee and Cole taking the mound, it’s hard to consider playing the Over.

The Yankees have scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 4 games, and Bibee has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 4 straight starts.

BET UNDER 7 (-115).

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ALDS Game 4: New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals meet Thursday in Game 4 of their best-of-5 ALDS. First pitch at Kauffman Stadium is slated for 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: New York leads 2-1; won regular season series 5-2

The Yankees took Games 1 and 3, winning both in 1-run fashion. Since Sept. 11, New York has gone a combined 13-7 with a 3.23 ERA.

Kansas City pitching has issued 17 free passes in the club’s 2 losses in the series. And Wednesday’s loss, a 3-2 affair that saw the Royals collect just 6 hits and 2 walks, marked K.C.’s 7th in a row at Kauffman Stadium.

Yankees at Royals projected starters

RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Michael Wacha

Cole (8-5, 3.41 ERA) made 17 starts in the regular season. He authored a 1.13 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 95 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-5 win vs. Kansas City Royals Saturday (ALDS Game 1)
  • Career vs. Royals (regular season): 4-1, 2.77 ERA (52 IP, 16 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 8 starts
  • Owns a 3.05 ERA in 109 1/3 career playoff innings

Wacha (13-8, 3.35 ERA) made 29 starts in the regular season. He registered a 1.19 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 166 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 6-5 loss at New York Yankees Saturday (ALDS Game 1)
  • Career vs. Yankees (regular season): 2-1, 2.97 ERA (57 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 11 appearances (9 starts)
  • Has registered a 5.36 ERA over 42 career playoff innings

Yankees at Royals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Yankees -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Royals +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+110) | Royals +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Yankees at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Royals 4

Moneyline

The Yankees were a -210 favorite with this same pitching matchup in Game 1 at Yankee Stadium. Neither hurler fared well, and New York earned a 6-5 victory in the series lid-lifter.

New York had a plus-18 run differential vs. Kansas City in the regular season. Per ESPN, the Cole has held Kansas City to an aggregate .603 OPS with a hefty strikeout rate.

Wacha logged some generous rates around the margins in posting his regular-season ERA, and his expected-ERA numbers were more-than-a-half-run higher. The K.C. righty has pitched quite well at Kauffman Stadium (2.89 ERA), and he does have a history of faring well in home starts. But his Game 1 performance and overall postseason line leave enough doubt in this spot.

The Royals offense was productive at home this season. But lately, Kansas City has struggled mightily on home turf. The ballclub is winless (0-7) at Kauffman since Sept. 16. Over those 7 games, the Royals offense has cranked out a whiff-laden .541 OPS.

BACK YANKEES (-155).

Run line/Against the spread

No interest here due to CF Aaron Judge struggles (1-for-14 in this series, .467 OPS across last 12 postseason games) and the likely Thursday unavailability of New York closer Luke Weaver, who got the final 5 outs in Wednesday’s win.

PASS.

Over/Under

Game 4 gets a slight temperature warm-up. Both starters are good, but slight fades compared to their surface numbers. Bullpens are a few days used and seen.

TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115).

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