Tag: New York Mets vs. Milwaukee Brewers odds predictions pick betting line spread

The New York Mets (73-80) face the Milwaukee Brewers (92-62) Saturday in the second game of a three-game series at American Family Field. The Brewers won the series opener 5-1 Friday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mets LHP Rich Hill (6-7, 3.87 ERA) makes his 30th start and 31st appearance. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 148 2/3 IP.

• He is 0-3 across 10 starts and one relief appearance since joining New York. The Mets are 4-6 when he starts.
• Allowed 2 runs on 6 hits across 4 2/3 innings in a 3-2 win Sept. 19 against the Philadelphia Phillies his last time out.

Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes (10-4, 2.34 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and league-leading 12.6 K/9 through 158 IP.

• Has won eight straight decisions and has not taken a loss in a game since May 25.
• The Brewers have not lost in his last 11 starts. The last time they lost with him on the mound was July 7 at the Mets when he allowed 1 earned run on 6 hits over 5 2/3 innings.

Mets at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:24 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Mets +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Brewers -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-125) | Brewers -1.5 (+102)
• Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Mets 2

Money line (ML)

The Mets only have one win in their last nine games. They are 29-47 on the road and 36-52 against winning teams this season.

You can’t ignore the fact that the Brewers have won Burnes’ last 11 starts. They did lose five games in a row and were swept by the Cardinals before Friday’s opener, but they had won 9 of their 12 games prior.

Take the BREWERS  (-220).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Six of the Mets’ last eight losses were by at least 2 runs. At 34-42 ATS, the Mets have the third-worst record against the spread on the road.

Only two of the Brewers’ last 20 wins have been one-run games. They are 85-69 ATS overall this season.

As I expect a Brewers outright win, you can bet they will also cover.

Take the BREWERS -1.5 (+102).

Over/Under (O/U)

Eight of the last 12 games for the Mets had totals of 8 or more runs, while five of the last eight games for the Brewers have had totals of 8 or more.

However, none of the four games between the teams this season reached 8 total runs.

Only one of Hill’s last six starts has had 8 or more runs, while half of Burnes’ last eight starts have had at least 8 runs.

We should expect more good pitching Saturday.

Take UNDER 7.5 (-115).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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The New York Mets (73-79) and Milwaukee Brewers (91-62) open a three-game series Friday at American Family Field. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mets RHP Tylor Megill (3-5, 4.57 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 80 2/3 IP.

• Pitched to a 7.66 ERA over 24 2/3 innings across his last five outings.
• Has been hurt by a 17.4% HR/FB rate and has struggled with contact as his Barrel rate, HardHit rate and Average Exit Velocity are all in the 29th or worse percentile.

Brewers LHP Eric Lauer (6-5, 3.03 ERA) makes his 19th start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 107 IP.

• Has a 1.90 ERA and allowed only 3 home runs across 42 2/3 innings spanning his last eight starts.
• His xFIP and xERA are nearly a full-run higher than his surface ERA as he has benefitted from a well-below-average .251 BABIP and well-above-average 80.5% left on base rate.

Mets at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Mets +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Brewers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
• Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-175) | Brewers -1.5 (+140)
• Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Brewers 6, Mets 3

Money line (ML)

Milwaukee enters Friday’s contest on a five-game losing skid after being swept at home in a four-game series by the St. Louis Cardinals. New York comes in with just one win in its last eight games.

The Mets have struggled on the road all season, evidenced by their 29-46 record away from Citi Field, and have found no success against left-handed starters against whom they are 17-32.

The Brewers have an edge here in the starting pitching matchup and in relief pitching. This should be an excellent “get right” spot for them.

Back the BREWERS (-145).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Megill has allowed 4 or more earned runs in five of his nine starts since the beginning of August, so there may be adequate opportunity Friday for the Brewers to get their bats back in order after scoring just 10 runs in their four-game series against the Cardinals.

Milwaukee’s bullpen is second in SIERA, xFIP and K-BB% over the last 14 days, while New York is very middle-of-the-pack across those categories through the same timeframe.

Anticipating Milwaukee’s bullpen to hang on to any lead it’s given by Lauer, consider there is some value to be had with a play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+140).

Over/Under (O/U)

This number feels too low for two starting pitchers of this caliber, particularly at hitter-friendly Am Fam Field.

There should be enough action Friday to reach the OVER 8.5 (-102).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Andrew Reid on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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