New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (57-51) and Los Angeles Angels (47-61) begin a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Angel Stadium is set for 9:38 p.m. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Angels odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Angels won 2 of 3 in 2023

New York heads to Los Angeles after going 4-3 on a 7-game homestand. They lost to the Minnesota Twins 8-3 on Wednesday after an awful outing from RHP Luis Severino (3 IP, 6 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K). The Mets are 27-22 on the road and 54-54 against the spread (ATS).

The Angels are 2-5 during their current 10-game homestand. They blew a 9th-inning lead and lost  5-4 to the Colorado Rockies Thursday night. RHP Carson Fulmer got a no-decision despite a terrific outing (6 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 HR, 8 K) after RHP Hunter Strickland allowed 2 runs in the top of the 9th. Los Angeles got home runs from CF Mickey Moniak and C Logan O’Hoppe. The Angels 24-34 at home and 60-48 ATS.

Mets at Angels projected starters

RHP Paul Blackburn vs. LHP Tyler Anderson

Blackburn (4-2, 4.41 ERA) makes his 1st start for the Mets. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 51 IP in 9 starts for the Oakland A’s.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 5-4 road victory against Los Angeles Angels last Friday
  • 2024 road splits: 2-2, 7.56 ERA (25 IP, 21 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 5 starts

Anderson (8-9, 2.96 ERA) makes his 22nd start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 130 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 10 K in 3-1 loss against the A’s on Saturday
  • 2024 road splits: 3-6, 3.88 ERA (72 IP, 31 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 6.5 K/9 in 12 starts
  • Career vs. Mets: 2-2, 2.45 ERA, 29 1/3 IP, 8 ER, 31 H, 2 BB, 20 K in 5 starts

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Mets at Angels odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:46 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets -138 (bet $138 to win $100) | Angels +118 (bet $100 to win $118)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Mets -1.5 (+116) | Angels -1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mets at Angels picks and predictions

Prediction

Angels 6, Mets 4

Moneyline

BET ANGELS (+118).

I’ve got the Angels taking the opener of this 3-game set behind Anderson. He has a good history against New York, winning 2 of his last 3 starts against the Mets and allowing just 4 total ER over his last 18 innings pitched.

Blackburn has history against the Angels having pitched in the AL West. He is 4-0 against them in 6 starts, but he has allowed at least 4 ER in 4 of his last 5 starts.

These 2 teams have split their last 10 meetings, which basically makes this game a toss up. Another reason I’d like to jump on the home team getting plus odds.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I’m going to keep my bet to the moneyline.

Over/Under

PASS.

I don’t have a good lean either way on this one. You’ve got one starter making his debut for a team on the road and another one who is very inconsistent.

The teams are 5-5 against the Over in their last 10 meetings. Both the Mets and Angels are 6-4 against the Under in their last 10 games.

There are just too many up-in-the-area variables to like this bet one way or another. I’ll just stick to the moneyline.

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New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (39-21) meet the Los Angeles Angels (28-32) Saturday for the 2nd of their 3-game interleague set at Angel Stadium with the first pitch scheduled for 10:07 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

N.Y. took the series opener 7-3 Friday with standout performances from Mets’ 1st- and 2nd-hitters CF Brandon Nimmo and LF Mark Canha, who combined to hit 4-for-8 with 1 home run, 2 doubles and 6 RBIs. Friday’s Mets-Angels meeting was their 1st of the season.

Mets at Angels projected starters

RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Michael Lorenzen 

Carrasco is 7-1 with a 3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 64 IP over 11 starts.

  • Last start: Win, 11-5, Monday at the San Diego Padres with 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 10 K.

Lorenzen is 5-3 with a 3.69 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 53 2/3 IP across 9 starts.

  • Last start: Loss, 7-2, Saturday at the Philadelphia Phillies with 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H, 5 BB and 9 K.

Mets at Angels odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mets -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Angels +115 (bet $110 to win $115)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+120) | Angels +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -130 | U: -105)

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Mets at Angels picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Angels 3

Money line

BET the METS (-140).

The Mets have a 3-phase edge over the Angels (+115) in starters, relief pitching and hitting.

Carrasco’s basic numbers and pitching peripherals are much stronger than Lorenzen’s, and Carrasco has much better advanced pitching stats vs. L.A. than Lorenzen against N.Y.

Carrasco has a .174/.255/.349 expected batting average (xBA), wOBA (xwOBA) and slugging percentage (xSLG) slash line and 26.7 K% in 30 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Angels batters, per Statcast.

Whereas Lorenzen has a .347/.430/.544 xBA-xwOBA-xSLG slash line and 12.5 K% in 40 PA vs. current Mets hitters.

Also, N.Y.’s lineup is better than L.A. vs. right-handed pitching in wRC+ (119-107), wOBA (.333-316) and BB/K rate (0.41-0.31), per FanGraphs.

Finally, these teams are trending in opposite directions. L.A. is 1-9 overall in their last 10 games and just fired its manager while N.Y. is atop the NL East by 6.5 games without its 2 aces.

BET the METS (-140).

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN to the METS -1.5 (+120) because this isn’t a big enough payout for a “sprinkle” on top of N.Y.’s ML.

But, the Mets have a 3-phase edge and 26-18 RL as favorites while the Angels +1.5 (-105) are just 10-10 RL as underdogs.

LEAN METS -1.5 (+120).

Over/Under

PASS.

Apparently, the sharp money is hitting the Over 8.5 (-130), but I can not reverse engineer the line movement and don’t have a strong enough opinion on the total.

If anything, I’d “lean” Over 8.5 (-130) because Lorenzen and Carrasco are both due for regression, and both lineups have been productive vs. right-handed pitching.

PASS.

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