Tag: New York Mets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

San Francisco Giants at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s San Francisco Giants at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (61-64) host the San Francisco Giants (81-44) Wednesday for the second of their three-game set at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

San Francisco drilled New York 8-0 in the first game of the series as Giants 1B Brandon Belt stood out by going 4-for-5 at the plate with 2 home runs and 3 RBIs.

Season series: Giants lead 3-1.

RHP Johnny Cueto is San Francisco’s projected starter. Cueto is 7-6 with a 3.89 ERA (104 IP, 45 ER), 1.28 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 19 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 3 K in San Francisco’s 5-4 win at the Milwaukee Brewers Aug. 4.
  • 2021 road splits: 1-3 with a 4.93 ERA (45 2/3 IP, 25 ER), 1.56 WHIP and 2.7 K/BB in nine starts.
    • vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.96 FIP with a .298 batting average (BA), .356 wOBA, .484 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.6 K% and 89.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 64 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Taijuan Walker gets the start for the Mets. Walker is 7-8 with a 3.86 ERA (123 2/3 IP, 53 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 24 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-1, 6 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 4 K Thursday at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • 2021 home splits: 4-2 with a 3.05 ERA (62 IP, 21 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 2.7 K/BB in 11 starts.
    • vs. Dodgers on the current roster: 3.20 FIP with a .271 BA, .337 wOBA, .366 xSLG, 24.1 K% and 89.4 mph EV in 58 PA.

Giants at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Giants +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Giants +1.5 (-205) | Mets -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Mets 4, Giants 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the METS (-125) for a half unit because they have been very profitable at home with Walker on the mound, and bettors would’ve lost money if they blindly backed the Giants on the road with Cueto getting the start.

For instance, New York is 8-3 at home when Walker starts with a plus-32.4% return on investment (ROI) and an average money line of -130. While San Francisco is 4-5 on the road with Cueto on the bump with a minus-18.4% ROI and an average money line of -111.

However, I can only “lean” toward the Mets because the Giants are 3-0 as road underdogs when Cueto gets the start, and New York’s lineup has been terrible following the All-Star Game.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Mets -1.5 (+155) isn’t a fat enough payout considering New York is 14-31 ATS as a home favorite and San Francisco is 30-4 ATS as a road underdog.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE the UNDER 8.5 (-105) for 1 unit because the Mets are 13-27-3 O/U as a home favorite, and we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market.

According to Pregame.com, more than 60% of the cash is on the Under whereas a slight majority of the action is on the Over. Typically, in sports gambling, it’s wise to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (59-55) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (69-46) Friday for the opener of a three-game series. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York paused its freefall in the NL East standings by sweeping a three-game set with the Washington Nationals earlier this week but is just 8-12 in the last 20 games.

L.A. had a four-game win streak snapped Thursday with a 2-1 loss at the Philadelphia Phillies and is 7-3 over the last 10 games. The Dodgers still sit 5 games back of the San Francisco Giants in the NL West standings.

Season series: Tied 0-0.

LHP Julio Urias gets the nod for the Dodgers. Urias is 13-3 with a 3.41 ERA (134 2/3 IP, 51 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 23 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 5 K in a 5-3 victory over the Los Angeles Angels Saturday.
  • 2021 road splits: 10-2 with a 3.07 ERA (76 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 0.98 WHIP and 5.9 K/BB in 13 starts.

RHP Tylor Megill is New York’s projected starter. Megill is 1-2 with a 3.20 ERA (45 IP, 16 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in nine starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5-3, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K at the Philadelphia Phillies Saturday.
  • 2021 home splits: 1-0 with a 1.85 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 1.03 WHIP and 3.2 K/BB in five starts.

Dodgers at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:03 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Dodgers -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Mets +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -1.5 (+105) | Mets +1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Prediction

Mets 4, Dodgers 3

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mets because I like their run line price since both teams’ bullpen pitching is very good, Megill has pitched much better at home and the Mets are 36-20 in New York.

Compare Megill’s home starts written above against these road splits: 0-2 with a 4.79 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.26 WHIP and 6.3 K/BB in four starts.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the METS +1.5 (-130) for a half unit because New York is 8-4 ATS as a home underdog with a plus-1.9 run line margin and L.A. is just 28-29 ATS as a road favorite.

Also, there’s a “line freeze” in the Dodgers-Mets run line betting market since L.A. is getting a vast majority of the action but the odds haven’t budged much according to Pregame.com.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-125) for a half unit because New York has played to the highest rate of Unders at home this year and the Mets have gone Under in Megill’s last four home starts.

Furthermore, there’s also a “line freeze” here with the market hammering the Over at nearly an 80% clip but the total hasn’t moved from the opener.

Also, Urias has elite-level stuff as he grades in the 90th percentile or better in chase rate, BB%, hard-hit rate and exit velocity. However, my hesitancy with this total is L.A.’s 14-7 O/U record in Urias starts.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (50-62) stop by Citi Field Tuesday to start a three-game series with the New York Mets (56-55) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Nationals lead 5-3.

RHP Paolo Espino takes the mound for the Nationals. Espino is 3-3 with a 3.66 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in nine starts and 16 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 9-5, with 5 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 3 K against the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday.
  • 2021 road splits: 0-0 with a 4.71 ERA (21 IP, 11 ER), 1.19 WHIP and 4.3 K/BB in two starts and 10 bullpen outings.

RHP Carlos Carrasco makes his third start for the Mets. Carrasco is 0-0 with a 3.24 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 1 BB and 9 K this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K in New York’s 5-3 win at the Miami Marlins Wednesday.

Nationals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Mets -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-112) | Mets -1.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Nationals 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mets (-250) since they are obviously the right side because New York is 12 games above .500 against righty starters and 13 games above .500 at home.

Furthermore, there’s no way I can risk two-and-a-half times my potential return on a Mets team that’s in the midst of a freefall.

New York is 2-8 in the last 10 games, 7-13 in the past 20, and has fallen 2.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for first place in the NL East.

It would appear this is your typically cursed Mets season but since Carrasco is in his first season in New York maybe he hasn’t gotten the memo.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the METS -1.5 (-108) for a tiny wager because New York has an edge in the three most important phases of the game (bullpen, starting pitching and hitting) and is obviously a better price point.

Washington also moved several quality bullpen arms at the trade deadline. Not so coincidently, the Nationals bullpen has the third-most blown saves, second-worst SIERA, second-worst xFIP and second-worst K-BB% since the trade deadline.

It’s only a “lean” because despite New York being buyers at the trade deadline and Washington sellers, the Mets lineup has been much worse than the Nationals since then.

Also, New York has the fourth-worst cover rate against divisional foes at 19-30 ATS and is 13-28 ATS as a home favorite whereas Washington is 21-19 ATS as a road underdog.

For instance, Washington is middle of the pack in hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and WAR while New York ranks in the bottom 6 in each of those categories since the trade deadline.

That said, the Mets’ lineup has a lot more talent and has the third-highest BB/K rate in the second half of the season, which really helps against a Washington pitching staff that’s lost the plate since the All-Star Game.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) because the market is barreling into the Over yet we have a “line freeze” and if anything the total is moving in the opposite direction.

According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the cash wagered is on the Over but the total is still at the 8.50-run opener and the Under is juiced heavier.

The reason for this live movement, or lack thereof, could be the Mets playing in the highest rate of Unders in divisional games and the Nationals playing to the Under at the third-highest rate against NL East foes. And again, both lineups have been terrible this month.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (56-52) travel to Citizens Bank Park Friday to start a three-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies (56-53) at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York has lost four of its last six games, and seven of the last 10, and is now just a half-game in front of Philly for first in the NL East. The Phillies are 12-9 since the All-Star Game but have won five straight games entering Friday.

Season series: Mets lead 8-5.

RHP Marcus Stroman makes his 23rd start for the Mets. Stroman is 7-10 with a 2.80 ERA (122 IP, 38 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7-1, with 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 4 K against the Cincinnati Reds Sunday.
  • Stroman is 2-2 this season against Philly with a 1.35 ERA (20 IP, 3 ER), 1.05 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB in four starts.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster (170 PA): 2.80 FIP with a .229 batting average (BA), .259 wOBA, .367 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.2 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Kyle Gibson is on the mound for the Phillies. Gibson is 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA (119 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 20 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 15-4, with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K Sunday at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster (75 PA): 5.49 FIP with a .354 BA, .425 wOBA, .430 xSLG, 22.7 K% and 85.9 mph EV.

Mets at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (-140) | Phillies +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 5

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the PHILLIES (-110) for a half unit because Philly has been raking lately and I’m higher on Gibson than Stroman in this spot. Also, Philly is 31-21 at home while New York is 23-32 on the road.

Philly’s lineup ranks second in WAR, third in wOBA, sixth in wRC+, and eighth in hard-contact rate over the last two weeks. On the other hand, New York’s lineup ranks in the bottom-10 in each of those categories in the past 14 days.

I’m hesitant to fully endorse the Phillies in this spot because their bullpen is terrible. Philly’s relievers have the fifth-worst FIP and home run per nine-inning rate and the ninth-worst K-BB%.

Usually, I’d be touting Philly’s First 5 Innings money line but Tipico Sportsbook only offers a three-way First 5 Innings money line so instead of chopping if it were tied after the 5th inning, we’d lose.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Phillies +1.5 (-180) is far too pricey considering how unreliable their bullpen has been. However, it’s a line I’ll keep my eye on throughout the day because Philly’s run line has a bit of value.

The reasons being the Phillies are an MLB-best 13-4 ATS as a home underdog and the Mets are 7-22 ATS with a minus-2.1 run line margin as a road favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-112) for a half unit because the Over has cashed in seven of the last Mets-Phillies meetings in Philly and New York is 31-21-2 O/U on the road.

However, it’s only a slight “lean” since we are getting the worst of the number because the market has steamed this total up from the 8.5-run opener to the current price. I’m always leery about following a crowd in sports betting, which is another cause for concern with my OVER 9.5 (-112) lean.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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