The New Orleans Saints (5-3) drop by Nissan Stadium Sunday for their Week 10 showdown with the Tennessee Titans (7-2). Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Saints vs. Titans odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
New Orleans had its three-game winning streak snapped with a 27-25 loss to the Atlanta Falcons in Week 9 as a 7-point home favorite. The Saints are 4-4 ATS and 4-4 O/U.
Saints QB Trevor Siemian made his first start for the Saints this past weekend, replacing QB Jameis Winston, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 8. Siemian completed 25 of 41 passes for 249 yards with a 2 TD:0 INT ratio and 94.5 QB Rating vs. Atlanta.
Tennessee upset the Los Angeles Rams 28-16 as a 7-point road underdog on Sunday Night Football in Week 9.
Tennessee RB Derrick Henry missed his first game of the season as he landed on the IR list with a foot injury. The Titans are 7-2 ATS and 5-4 O/U with the toughest strength of schedule, according to Football Outsiders.
Saints at Titans odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 3:46 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Saints +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Titans -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Saints +2.5 (+105) | Titans -2.5 (-130)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43.5 (O: -117 | U: -103)
Saints at Titans key injuries
Saints
- RB Alvin Kamara (knee) out
- LT Terron Armstead (knee, shoulder) out
- CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson (foot) out
Titans
- WR Julio Jones (hamstring) questionable
- DT Teair Tart (groin) questionable
- LB Rashaan Evans (ankle) questionable
- LB David Long (hamstring) out
- S Dane Cruikshank (knee) out
- CB Greg Mabin (ankle) out
Saints at Titans odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Titans 23, Saints 17
Money line
There’s a reason Siemian is on his third team in three seasons and I don’t think the dropoff from Winston to Siemian is accurately accounted for in the pricing.
More importantly, this TITANS (-150) thing isn’t a fluke. It’s the product of years of hard work by head coach Mike Vrabel, Tennessee’s front office and the veterans, not just Henry.
Also, I think there’s an expectation in the betting market that the Titans will regress without Henry. Plus, Tennessee has played in four straight high-profile games so perhaps the Titans are due for a loss.
But I see a motivated Tennessee team that’s driven to shut the naysayers up. BET TITANS (-150) for 1 unit.
Against the spread
PASS on the Titans -2.5 (-130) because their money line is only 20 cents on the dollar more expensive. Also, I “like” the Under in this game so I’d rather not sweat the points and just stick with Tennessee to win outright.
Over/Under
Because of the price and situation, the UNDER 43.5 (-103) is my favorite play in the Saints-Titans matchup.
This is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” game in the betting market. According to Pregame.com, almost two-thirds of the cash is on the Under whereas nearly three-fourths of the bets placed are on the Over. Typically in sports betting, it’s wise to follow the money especially when it’s counter to the public.
Tennessee’s defense is gelling and New Orleans’s defense has been one of the best units in the NFL this season. Neither offense has a high explosive rate and both defenses don’t give up a lot of explosive plays (according to Warren Sharp).
On top of that, both teams play at a slow tempo. According to Football Outsiders, the Titans offense is 26th in seconds per play and the Saints’ ranks 28th.
I handicap this game even further on this week’s Bet Slippin’ Podcast, but the UNDER 44.5 (-110) is one of my favorite bets on the NFL’s Week 10 slate.
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