The Kansas City Chiefs (13-3) and Las Vegas Raiders (6-10) face off Saturday. Kickoff from Allegiant Stadium is set for 4:30 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Chiefs vs. Raiders odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Chiefs are currently on a 4-game win streak against the Raiders, including a 30-29 win in Week 5, although they failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites. QB Patrick Mahomes is 8-1 against Las Vegas while Raiders QB Jarrett Stidham will be making his 2nd-career start.
The Chiefs have won 4 straight games overall but have failed to cover the spread in most contests this season. Kansas City is just 4-11-1 ATS while Las Vegas is 8-8 ATS. The Chiefs have not covered against an AFC opponent this season.
This game holds higher stakes for the Chiefs as they need to win in order to capture the AFC’s No. 1 playoff seed. The Raiders are eliminated from playoff contention, so this game is more about seeing what they have in Stidham who replaced QB Derek Carr in Week 17. Stidham threw for 365 yards, 3 TDs and 2 INTs in a 37-34 overtime loss to the San Francisco 49ers in his 1st start.
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Chiefs at Raiders odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:08 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Chiefs -425 (bet $425 to win $100) | Raiders +350 (bet $100 to win $350)
- Against the spread (ATS): Chiefs -9 (-111) | Raiders +9 (-109)
- Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -109 | U: -111)
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Chiefs at Raiders key injuries
Chiefs
- K Harrison Butker (back) questionable
- WR Mecole Hardman (pelvis) questionable
- WR Skyy Moore (hand) out
- CB L’Jarius Sneed (hip) questionable
- LG Joe Thuney (ankle) questionable
Raiders
- LB Darien Butler (concussion) out
- RB Josh Jacobs (hip/oblique/non-injury related) questionable
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Chiefs at Raiders picks and predictions
Prediction
Chiefs 34, Raiders 31
Moneyline
The Chiefs will need to be on their A-game as they try to take the AFC’s top seed, but it won’t be easy. Playing a division rival that has nothing to play for can be a trap because the Raiders would love nothing more than to play spoiler for the Chiefs’ playoff bye hopes.
The good news for K.C. is that its offense should fare well against a defense that allows the league’s 4th-most passing yards per game (246.8). It’ll be close, but it’s tough to see anything other than a Kansas City victory with so much on the line.
However, bettors should PASS on the moneyline for this matchup because the payout for taking Chiefs (-425) is not worth the risk.
Against the spread
The Chiefs have been unable to cover against an AFC opponent all season and there’s no reason to believe they’ll start now. Nine of the Raiders’ 10 losses this season have been by 1 possession, including their 1-point loss to the Chiefs earlier this season.
Stidham looked impressive against a great 49ers defense last week and almost led the Raiders to a surprise victory. If he had that sort of success against the NFL’s top-scoring defense, he should be able to see similar results against a Chiefs defense that allowed the putrid Denver Broncos offense to score 52 points in 2 games.
BET RAIDERS +9 (-109).
Over/Under
The Chiefs and Raiders are each 8-8 to the Over this season. The Chiefs boast the league’s best offense at 29.1 points per game while the Raiders just dropped 34 on San Francisco last week. There should be no shortage of offense in this matchup.
TAKE OVER 52.5 (-109).
Bonus prop: Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon ANYTIME TD (-140)
McKinnon has been on a tear for Kansas City lately. He has scored 8 TDs in his last 5 games, including at least 1 receiving TD in each game. Mahomes has loved leaning on McKinnon in the passing game, hitting him for 23 receptions in the last 4 weeks. You could easily double this up with MCKINNON OVER 35.5 RECEVING YARDS (-115) as well — McKinnon has gone over 35 in 3 of his last 4 outings.
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