New Orleans Pelicans odds line spread pick predictions best bets

The New Orleans Pelicans (19-32) visit the Mile High City Friday to play the Denver Nuggets (28-23). Tip-off at the Ball Arena is scheduled for 9 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Pelicans vs. Nuggets odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

NOLA snapped a 4-game losing skid Tuesday by defeating the Pistons in Detroit 111-101 as 2.5-point favorites. The Pelicans are 2-4 straight up (SU) but 3-2-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last six games.

Denver lost the final two games of a 6-game road trip, falling at the Minnesota Timberwolves 130-115 Tuesday and at the Utah Jazz without leading scorer in C Nikola Jokic 108-104 Wednesday. The Nuggets are 5-3 SU and 3-4-1 ATS in their last eight games.

Denver is 2-0 SU and ATS versus New Orleans this season with the O/U going 1-1.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA February 4 breakdown

Pelicans at Nuggets odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:59 p.m. ET.

Money line: Pelicans +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Nuggets -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
Against the spread: Pelicans +5.5 (-105) | Nuggets -5.5 (-120)
Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Pelicans at Nuggets key injuries

Pelicans

SG Josh Hart (knee) questionable
C Willy Hernangomez (health and safety protocols) out
SG Garrett Temple (health and safety protocols) out

Nuggets

C Demarcus Cousins (foot) questionable

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Pelicans at Nuggets odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Nuggets 115, Pelicans 103

Money line

PASS.

I only “lean” to Denver laying the points, and there’s no way I’d bet on the Nuggets’ -250 price.

Against the spread

LEAN to the NUGGETS -5.5 (-120).

Denver is 7-6 (ATS) at home versus teams with a losing record. New Orleans is 8-10 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record.

More importantly, the Nuggets have a massive edge in the shooting department. They are third in effective field-goal percentage (eFG%). New Orleans is 27th in defensive eFG%.

It’s only a “lean” to the NUGGETS -5.5 (-120) because I have a stronger grasp of the total (see below).

Over/Under

There are a bunch of reasons to like UNDER 224.5 (-112).

NOLA is 22nd in pace and Denver is 23rd and both are top 10 in rebounding rate. So, I’m expecting a slow tempo and several “one-and-done” possessions.

Two of the three referees assigned to this matchup officiate far more Unders. This officiating crew has a combined 43-58 O/U record.

Denver has the third-worst free-throw attempt rate (FTr) and, while NOLA is fifth in FTr, the Nuggets are 10th in defensive FT/FGA rate. Typically, Under-friendly officials call fewer fouls, which keeps the clock running and obviously limits free-throw attempts.

I’m fading the heavy line movement and all the pro-Over money in the betting market. This opened with a 220-point total before being steamed all the way up to the current price.

NOLA is 0-6 O/U versus teams with a winning record, and the Under has cashed in six of the past seven Pelicans-Nuggets meetings.

The only reason the Dec. 8 Pelicans-Nuggets game went Over is that there were 24 points scored in overtime.

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The Cleveland Cavaliers (30-20) host the New Orleans Pelicans (18-31) Monday at the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Pelicans vs. Cavaliers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

NOLA has lost three consecutive games with the latest being a 107-97 home loss as a 7-point underdog to the Boston Celtics Saturday. The Pelicans are 2-4 straight up (SU) and 2-3-1 against the spread (ATS) over the past two weeks.

Cleveland had a three-game winning streak snapped Sunday after losing at the Detroit Pistons 115-105 as a 7.5-point favorite. The Cavs are 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS in the last 14 days.

The Pelicans (+4.5) rallied back from a 19-point, first-quarter deficit to upset the Cavs 108-104 in their first head-to-head meeting this season Dec. 28 with the Over (210) cashing.

However, Cleveland was without PG Darius Garland and C Jarrett Allen, while NOLA was missing SF Brandon Ingram and SG Josh Hart.

Pelicans at Cavaliers odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

Money line: Pelicans +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Cavaliers -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
Against the spread: Pelicans +7.5 (-115) | Cavaliers -7.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 210.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Pelicans at Cavaliers key injuries

Pelicans

SG Josh Hart (knee) questionable
SF Brandon Ingram (ankle) questionable
C Jonas Valanciunas (illness) questionable

Cavaliers

PF Lauri Markkanen (ankle) out

Pelicans at Cavaliers odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Cavaliers 105, Pelicans 101

Money line

PASS with a heavy “lean” toward the Pelicans (+260) since I’m taking NOLA plus the points. Typically, I’ll sprinkle on an underdog’s money line when betting it to cover the spread.

But until NOLA’s official starting 5 is announced I cannot make an ML wager in this game. However, there has been line movement toward the Pelicans since they opened as +280 underdogs.

I’d assume that line movement is due to anticipation that NOLA will receive good injury luck for this game.

Three Pelicans starters are listed on the injury report as “questionable” and all three have a plus-11.0 points per 100 possessions adjusted on/off net rating or higher, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Against the spread

LEAN to the PELICANS +7.5 (-115) for a half-unit, which would be upgraded to a full-unit wager if Hart, Ingram and Valanciunas are active.

NOLA’s regular starting 5 scores 11.7 more points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, which grades in the 68th percentile of lineups.

Also, the Pelicans have beaten the Cavs in seven consecutive meetings and has covered in five of those wins.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 210.5 (-112). The Pelicans are 1-5 O/U in their last six games as underdogs, the Cavs are 0-4 O/U in their last four as home favorites and both teams play at a bottom-10 pace.

If Ingram and Valanciunas play, NOLA will play more half-court basketball. If they don’t play, the Pelicans will be missing their top-two scorers.

Both teams have top-10 rebounding rates, are top 10 in second-chance points per game (PPG) allowed and are above-average in paint PPG allowed.

Lastly, there’s been a sharp line move heading south of the total as it opened at 212.5 before being steamed down to the current number.

UNDER 210.5 (-112) is my favorite wager in this game.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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