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The New Mexico Lobos (25-9) and San Diego State Aztecs (24-9) meet in the Mountain West Conference Tournament Championship Game Saturday at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. Tip-off is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the New Mexico vs. San Diego State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
The 6th-seeded Lobos have scored 3 straight wins over Air Force, Boise State and Colorado State while going 3-0 against the spread (ATS) with 3 straight Under results in this tournament. It’s a stark contrast to the way UNM finished the regular season, as it was just 1-3 straight up (SU) in the final 4 games while covering only 2 of the final 6 regular-season games.
The 5th-seeded Aztecs, the defending national runner-up, topped UNLV and Utah State to get back to the final. San Diego State has split the spread while cashing the Over in the 2 tournament games.
These teams split the regular-season series, with New Mexico winning 88-70 in The Pit in ABQ Jan. 13, cashing as a 3.5-point favorite. San Diego State won at Viejas Arena Feb. 16 to cover as a 6-point favorite. The Over cashed in both meetings.
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New Mexico vs. San Diego State odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): New Mexico +112 (bet $100 to win $112) | San Diego State -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
- Against the spread: New Mexico +2.5 (-115) | San Diego State -2.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 141.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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New Mexico vs. San Diego State picks and predictions
Prediction
San Diego State 72, New Mexico 66
Moneyline
SAN DIEGO STATE (-134) isn’t priced out of line if you want to pick a winner and not worry about the points.
The Aztecs can tap into the experience of last season’s run to the national title game to get them through. While New Mexico (+112) has played well in this tourney, it struggled down the stretch of the regular season. San Diego State is the team with more experience, and a little more balance.
Against the spread
SAN DIEGO STATE -2.5 (-105) is a solid play laying the little bit of points.
The Aztecs halted a 4-game ATS skid with the win and cover over Utah State Friday. There is risk here, but they have owned New Mexico State +2.5 (-115) over the years, going 6-3-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings in this series.
The last time these teams met, the Aztecs hammered the Lobos by 11. Look for San Diego State to keep up the good word, claim the conference tournament title, and get ready for another run in the NCAA Tournament.
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Over/Under
UNDER 141.5 (-110) is a solid play in this MWC title game.
The Lobos have gone 3-for-3 in this tourney, relying heavily upon defense to get the job done. New Mexico has allowed 62.3 PPG in the 3 games in Vegas.
The Aztecs have allowed 70.5 PPG in the 2 tourney wins, and the Under is 6-4 across the past 10 games dating back to Feb. 9. The Under has hit in 4 of the past 6 meetings in this series, too.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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