Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 214 odds and lines between Neil Magny and Daniel Rodriguez, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.
In a welterweight bout on the main card, Neil Magny and Daniel Rodriguez meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 214 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 72 or UFC Vegas 64 — at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the UFC Fight Night 214: Magny vs. Rodriguez odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.
The fight can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims beginning at 4 p.m. ET and the main card at 7 p.m. ET.
Magny looks to bounce back after being submitted by Shavkat Rakhmonov in the 2nd round on the Tsarukyan-Gamrot card last time out in late June.
It was a rare stoppage for the 35-year-old “Haitian Sensation”, as his previous 6 bouts had all ended via decision, with 5 victories. If the veteran Magny has a weakness, it is the ground game, as he is now just 3-5 via submission in his 36 career professional bouts.
Rodriguez is looking to build on a 4-bout win streak, including a split-decision win over Li Jingliang at UFC 279 last time out in September. D-Rod has gone the distance in 4 of his last 5 fights.
Magny will look to keep this fight upright, and D-Rod isn’t terribly strong on takedowns, so that bodes well for the veteran. Magny will also look to keep Rodriguez at a distance thanks to a 6-inch reach advantage.
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UFC Fight Night 214: Magny vs. Rodriguez odds
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 8:32 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Magny -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Rodriguez -102 (bet $102 to win $100)
- Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -240 | Under +105)
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UFC Fight Night 214: Magny vs. Rodriguez picks and predictions
Records: Magny (26-10-0) | Rodriguez (17-2-0)
Rodriguez is a punching machine, holding a huge 7.75-to-3.59 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. However, I like the fact MAGNY (-125) should be able to use his half-foot reach advantage to keep his distance and avoid a big knockout blow.
It won’t be pretty for Magny, and it will be an uphill climb. To win this fight, he is going to have to avoid the big punches D-Rod is going to want to throw, and he is going to need to avoid the mat. Can he do enough to wow the judges and win on points? I think so, but Rodriguez has the punching power to tip the scales in his favor with one big blow, so play the 2-way line lightly.
Over 2.5 Rounds (-240) is a little on the expensive side, costing more than 2 times your potential return. That’s a lot, especially with a guy like Rodriguez who can win a fight with one punch.
I think Magny hangs around and draws this one out, going the distance, but even Yes (-210): Fight to go the distance is a little pricey for my liking.
PASS, and just play the 2-way line.
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