In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Nicolae Negumereanu meets Ike Villanueva Saturday at UFC Fight Night 196 – also known as UFC Vegas 41 and UFC on ESPN+ 54 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 196 Negumereanu vs. Villanueva odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims at 1 p.m. ET and the main card at 4 p.m. ET.
Negumereanu takes the walk to the octagon with a five-inch reach advantage over his counterpart, and he has six knockout wins in 11 career professional fights. His two UFC fights have ended up as decisions, including a split-decision win over Aleksa Camur last time out on the The Korean Zombie-Ige card June 19.
Villanueva enters this fight with four UFC results under his belt. He has posted a 1-3 record, with a KO/TKO loss in Round 2 against Marcin Prachnio last time out on the Gane-Volkov card June 26.
UFC Fight Night 196 Negumereanu vs. Villanueva: Odds and lines
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:15 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Negumereanu -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Villanueva +190 (bet $100 to win $190)
- Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -110)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +160 | No -230)
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UFC Fight Night 196 Negumereanu vs. Villanueva: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Records: Negumereanu (10-1-0) | Villanueva (18-12-0)
Fight result (2-way line or money line)
I really like Negumereanu (-250) to win this fight, but putting up two-and-a-half times your potential return is risky business. Perhaps if you time him into a parlay with several other fighters and/or round totals, the risk is mitigated somewhat, but you can’t play it straight up.
Instead of playing the 2-way result, look to the Method of Victory section, and play NEGUMEREANU BY KO/TKO (+170) as he looks to use that reach advantage for the quick finish. Villanueva has been knocked out of three of his past four.
Over/Under (O/U)
OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (-125) is the play, even though I don’t feel this one goes the distance. Negumereanu has been taken the distance in each of his two fights at the UFC level, so he needs to record some finishes before we can trust him for the quick stoppage.
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