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Predicting which of college football’s 5 undefeated teams will lose in Week 12

How many undefeated teams will be left next week?

Only five undefeated college football teams are still standing ahead of Week 12’s matchups: LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, Minnesota and Baylor.

Two teams fell off this list following last week’s games, Alabama and Penn State, but they both faced other unbeaten teams so we knew we’d lose at least a couple. The Big Ten still leads the way with two teams, while the SEC, ACC and Big 12 each have one representative here.

Here are our predictions for how the five remaining undefeated teams will play and whether or not they’ll keep their perfect records alive in Week 12. They’re based on their upcoming opponents, how they’ve played so far, the College Football Playoff rankings and ESPN’s Football Power Index projections.

(All games are on Saturday unless otherwise noted.)

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No. 1 LSU Tigers 9-0

Wins: Georgia Southern, Texas, Northwestern State, Vanderbilt, Utah State, Florida, Mississippi State, Auburn, Alabama
Chance of winning out: 42.4 percent
Week 12 game: Ole Miss (7 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Undefeated after Week 12: Yes

After handing Alabama its first loss of the season in Week 11, the Tigers are officially the hottest team in college football, and their chance to win out skyrocketed after being just 12.1 percent last week. Quarterback Joe Burrow solidified himself as the Heisman Trophy frontrunner, and he’s led the No. 4 offense in the nation through the roughest stretch of the schedule. LSU should have little trouble with Ole Miss this weekend, and the same goes for Arkansas and Texas A&M down the road.

The Tigers are 21.5-point favorites on the road.

No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes 9-0

Wins: Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, Indiana, Miami (Ohio), Nebraska, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, Maryland
Chance of winning out: 62.7 percent
Week 12 game: Rutgers (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN)
Undefeated after Week 12: Yes

Oh man, this is going to be so brutal. It seems incredibly unlikely that Rutgers’ offense, which averages 280.3 yards per game, will be able to do anything a top-ranked defense that gives up 214.8 yards and fewer than nine points a game. The Scarlet Knights might not even get on the board, while Ohio State looks like it could put up 700 yards and at least 60 points against an opponent still searching for its first Big Ten win in 2019.

The Buckeyes are 52-point favorites on the road.

No. 3 Clemson Tigers 10-0

Wins: Georgia Tech, Texas A&M, Syracuse, Charlotte, North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville, Boston College, Wofford, NC State
Chance of winning out: 83.9 percent
Week 12 game: Wake Forest (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Undefeated after Week 12: Yes

Forget about Clemson’s rough — but obviously undefeated — start to the 2019 season. The Tigers have found their rhythm against 68th strongest schedule, and they’re back to wrecking opponents. Their defense has been great nearly all season and is third in points against (11.5 per game) and fourth in yards allowed (251.5 per game). And now it looks like their offense has returned to its expected form, despite quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s four-way tie for the most interceptions thrown in the ACC. (But to be fair, he hasn’t thrown one in the last three games.)

In the five games since Clemson’s one-point win over North Carolina that no one can seem to forget, it’s averaging 52.6 points per game and has outscored opponents 263-55. It has the best chance in the nation to win out with just two regular-season games left, and that sounds about right.

The Tigers are 34-point favorites at home.

No. 8 Minnesota Golden Gophers 9-0

Wins: South Dakota State, Fresno State, Georgia Southern, Purdue, Illinois, Nebraska, Rutgers, Maryland, Penn State
Chance of winning out: 1.1 percent
Week 12 game: Iowa (4 p.m. ET, FOX)
Undefeated after Week 12: Yes

We underestimated the Golden Gophers last week against Penn State, and clearly, that was a huge mistake. Won’t let that happen twice. Minnesota had a two-touchdown lead at one point against what is still a top-5 defense that was giving up fewer than 10 points per game.

Iowa also has one of the nation’s best defenses, but we’re picking quarterback Tanner Morgan — who’s No. 3 in the nation with 10.9 yards per attempt, behind only Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa — and the Golden Gophers to beat the Hawkeyes, even if the game is at Kinnick Stadium.

Minnesota is a slight 3-point underdog.

No. 13 Baylor Bears 9-0

Wins: Stephen F. Austin, UTSA, Rice, Iowa State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, TCU
Chance of winning out: 4.4 percent
Week 12 game: Oklahoma (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC)
Undefeated after Week 12: No

It seems like every week we pick against the Bears, and ever week, we’re wrong. However, this time, it really seems like they’re going to lose in a game that could determine both teams’ fate in terms of the College Football Playoff. Baylor is coming off a close triple-overtime win against TCU last week, while Oklahoma barely beat Iowa State after blowing a 21-point lead. We’re predicting a similar ending. Quarterback Jalen Hurts and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb will do some serious early damage before Baylor claws its way back. But in the end, we think this is where the Bears’ win streak ends.

Baylor is a 10.5-point underdog.

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How Auburn could shake up the College Football Playoff without playing in it

The Tigers could be huge spoilers for multiple teams.

Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football show where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.

In the middle of a brutal schedule, Auburn is 7-2 and No. 12 in the College Football Playoff rankings with two losses, and it still has to play No. 4 Georgia and No. 5 Alabama. The Tigers have just a five percent chance to make the playoff at this point, but they do have the opportunity to have a massive impact on the playoff picture.

If LSU, Ohio State and Clemson continue playing the way they have all season, they’ll be the first three teams in. But that fourth spot could come down to Georgia, Alabama or Oregon, among other playoff hopefuls.

What do those three teams have in common? Auburn.

In Week 1, Oregon lost, 27-21, to the Tigers, and that remains the Ducks’ only defeat as they try to become a one-loss Pac-12 champ looking for a playoff spot. But depending on how other conferences close out the regular season, Oregon’s one loss could end up keeping it out of the top four.

Auburn hosts Georgia on Saturday, and upsetting the Bulldogs would hand them their second loss of the season and likely knock them out of playoff contention. A two-loss team has never been invited to the playoff, so it would probably take a conference championship and some chaos for that to happen.

And in Week 14, Alabama travels to Jordan-Hare Stadium to take on Auburn, and after the Crimson Tide lost to LSU in Week 11, a Tigers win could shut the door on their playoff hopes too.

Auburn probably won’t make the playoff, but it can be a huge spoiler this year.

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Notre Dame sellout streak of 273 games likely to end vs. Navy (Fightingirishwire)

Notre Dame hosts Navy Saturday, but the Top 25 matchup apparently does not have enough interest to keep the second-longest sellout streak in college football alive.

Notre Dame sellout streak of 273 games likely to end vs. Navy

Notre Dame hosts Navy Saturday, but the Top 25 matchup apparently does not have enough interest to keep the second-longest sellout streak in college football alive.

3 teams disrespected by the latest College Football Playoff rankings

Why is Minnesota only No. 8?!

Three teams were disrespected by the selection committee in the second College Football Playoff rankings, which were released Tuesday.

This is a subjective process, so it will never be perfect. But clearly, the committee holds some teams to certain standards and other teams to different ones. Some teams’ one-loss records hold up against undefeated squads, while other unbeaten teams can’t seem to do enough to get respect (even when they’re literally doing all they can). All wins and all losses aren’t equal, of course, but how is a win over a top-4 team less valuable than a loss to a top-4 team?

These rankings obviously don’t mean a whole lot in the middle of November because we have no idea what the College Football Playoff picture will look like in a few weeks. But they offer a little insight into the committee’s logic.

They also do a nice job of riling up college football fans, and the people who cheer for these three disrespected teams are right to be outraged.

No. 8 Minnesota (9-0)

What exactly do the Golden Gophers have to do to get a little respect? Plenty of people underestimated them against Penn State — For The Win included — but they took down a team the selection committee initially identified as the fourth best in the country. And the game was not nearly as close as the final 31-26 score. Minnesota was up, 24-10, at one point against a team just about everyone assumed it would lose to badly.

Minnesota debuted this season in the rankings at No. 17, which already seemed absurdly low. And then the Golden Gophers knocked off the No. 4 team and only rose to eighth, which is still the largest jump into the top 10 in the CFP era, per ESPN. Looking at the seven teams ahead of Minnesota, LSU is the only other that can say it beat a top-4 team, and it’s appropriately No. 1. But Minnesota should be higher than it is.

The logic for putting No. 4 at Georgia is its big wins against Florida and Notre Dame matter more than one bad loss to South Carolina. Minnesota has no losses, a massive win and a top-four strength of record, but it’s four spots behind the Bulldogs. We’re not saying the Golden Gophers should be No. 4, but anything less than No. 6 or even No. 7 this week is disrespectful.

No. 13 Baylor (9-0)

Unlike Minnesota, Baylor doesn’t have a win over a top-4 opponent. Actually, it hasn’t played a ranked opponent yet and needed triple-overtime to beat a TCU team that’s now 4-5. But the Bears are still undefeated and deserve to at least be closer to the top 10. Instead, their No. 13 spot is the lowest ranking by a 9-0 Power Five team in the CFP era, according to ESPN.

There are six one-loss teams and two two-loss teams ranked ahead of Baylor, and many one-loss teams deserve to be there. Despite Baylor’s No. 65 strength of schedule (which is still four spots higher than Clemson), it has the No. 3 strength of record, putting it higher than Auburn (No. 7) and Florida (No. 9). This undefeated Bears team should probably be No. 11, and if it beats Oklahoma this weekend, it needs to crack the top eight at least.

No. 18 Memphis (8-1)

Surprise! A team from a Group of Five conference is being disrespected. The Tigers have a two-point loss to Temple, which is important to remember. But in Week 10, they also beat a good and previously undefeated SMU team, 54-48, before having a bye last week. (And SMU actually dropped out of the rankings this week after debuting at No. 25, despite winning in Week 11. Just because the committee wants to add Appalachian State to the top-25 doesn’t mean it has to drop another Group of Five team.)

Memphis jumped three places in this week’s rankings, but maybe it should have been a couple spots more, especially when we know the committee won’t seriously consider a Group of Five team for the playoff anyway, regardless of record.

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Why the College Football Playoff selection committee can’t make a case for Alabama

Given how the selection committee evaluates contenders, Alabama isn’t a playoff team.

There is no definitive way to answer the question that’s tearing up college football right now: Should Alabama make the College Football Playoff?

All answers to that are subjective because — in addition to considering a team’s win-loss record, its strength of schedule, head-to-head matchups, common opponents and, eventually, conference championships — the members of the selection committee rely on their own evaluations.

“We watch the games,” committee chair and Oregon athletics director Rob Mullens explained last week after the first College Football Playoff rankings debuted. “We evaluate data and statistics, and in the end, each expert uses his or her judgment to rank the teams based on who they think is best.”

Based on the committee’s own criteria, judgment aside, Alabama is not a playoff team, even if it wins out.

The Crimson Tide — who dropped to No. 5 from No. 3 in the CFP rankings this week — still have a reasonable path to the playoff and a surprisingly high chance to make it after losing to LSU in Week 11. But they need outside help now. The committee either needs to make an “eye-test” call to put the Crimson Tide among the top-4 teams, or other playoff hopefuls need to lose. But we couldn’t even feign surprise if the selection committee found a reason to put them in the playoff for the sixth straight year.

With committee’s criteria in mind, let’s take a deeper look at how Alabama matches up against its competition in the fight for the fourth playoff spot behind LSU, Ohio State and Clemson, barring any further upsets.

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Top-10 College Football Playoff rankings: Week 12

1. LSU (9-0)

2. Ohio State (9-0)

3. Clemson (10-0)

4. Georgia (8-1)

5. Alabama (8-1)

6. Oregon (8-1)

7. Utah (8-1)

8. Minnesota (9-0)

9. Penn State (8-1)

10. Oklahoma (8-1)

Alabama’s primary competition for that last spot is Georgia, Oregon, Oklahoma and Minnesota. In addition to assuming the Crimson Tide win out, let’s also say the Ducks are one-loss Pac-12 champions, the Sooners are one-loss Big 12 champions and the Golden Gophers’ only loss is to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.

That leaves Georgia. Should the Bulldogs end up winning the SEC — they’d probably have to beat LSU — Alabama is truly done. The SEC could also get two teams in with that situation. But we’re assuming LSU wins the conference because it’s Alabama’s best-case scenario, and that would be Georgia’s second loss, likely pushing it out of the playoff picture.

So it’s really just Alabama vs. Oregon vs. Oklahoma vs. Minnesota.

Win-loss record

Under the assumption that Alabama’s best-case scenario in the SEC plays out, we’re looking at two one-loss conference champs in Oregon and Oklahoma against one-loss Alabama and one-loss Minnesota, neither of which have a conference title. The Crimson Tide would be 11-1, while Oregon, Oklahoma and Minnesota would be 12-1.

After Week 11, Alabama’s strength of record 10th, Oregon’s is eighth, Oklahoma’s is 15th and Minnesota’s is fourth.

Advantage: Oregon, Oklahoma, Minnesota

Strength of schedule

The Crimson Tide’s strength of schedule is ranked No. 39 nationally, which is not as low as Clemson at No. 69 but certainly not as high as LSU at No. 19. Alabama is ranked higher than Oklahoma (No. 55) but not Oregon (No. 33).

After losing to LSU, Alabama is now in a position to have only one win over a ranked opponent, should it take down No. 12 Auburn in its regular-season finale. It beat Texas A&M in Week 7 when it was No. 24 in the AP Poll and No. 21 in the Coaches Poll, but the Aggies are currently ranked by no one.

Beating Auburn would give Alabama one signature win against a ranked opponent this season.

To compare, Oklahoma has a win against one ranked opponent in No. 19 Texas, though the Longhorns fell from the No. 11 spot (AP and Coaches polls) they had for this Week 7 rivalry matchup. The Sooners could also add two more wins against ranked teams to their resume with No. 13 Baylor on Saturday and No. 22 Oklahoma State to close out the regular season.

Oregon has one win over a ranked team in then-No. 25 Washington, but the Huskies are no longer ranked. And unless Arizona, Arizona State or Oregon State manage to jump into the top 25, the Ducks’ only other outcome against a ranked opponent would be their 27-21 Week 1 loss to Auburn.

Minnesota’s strength of schedule is not great at No. 72, but after beating then-No. 4 Penn State, the Golden Gophers are undefeated with a win against their first ranked opponent and a chance to add two more in No. 20 Iowa and No. 14 Wisconsin. If they finish the regular season undefeated, their resume looks awfully strong.

Advantage: Oklahoma, Minnesota

Head-to-head results

Alabama does not play Oklahoma, Oregon or Minnesota in the regular season.

Advantage: N/A

Common opponent

Although Alabama, Oklahoma and Minnesota have no shared opponents this season, Alabama and Oregon do. The Ducks opened the season with a six-point loss to Auburn, and this whole debate assumes Alabama wins out, which means beating Auburn.

Advantage: Alabama

Conference championships

Again, assuming LSU wins out, Alabama’s loss to the Tigers prevents the Crimson Tide from winning the SEC West, and, therefore, from playing in the SEC title game. So no SEC championship for them.

Pitting Alabama against the strongest potential opponents, we assume Oregon and Oklahoma win out and are one-loss conference champions. But we are also predicting Ohio State wins the Big Ten title, so no conference championship for Minnesota.

Advantage: Oregon and Oklahoma

So to recap, if the remaining playoff contenders win out and Alabama has to make its case for getting the fourth playoff spot, it doesn’t have a particularly strong argument. Of the four applicable categories here, the Crimson Tide only have the advantage over the other three teams in one, and that shouldn’t outweigh other categories, like conference titles.

Alabama is certainly one of the most talented teams in the country, and it would probably be favored against just about any other opponent. But the Crimson Tide needed to take down another serious playoff contender when they had the chance and didn’t.

Now, their best-case and realistic scenario overall is for LSU to win the SEC, Ohio State to win the Big Ten and for Oregon, Oklahoma and Minnesota to lose in the next few weeks. (We’re not going to consider Clemson losing as a reasonable possibility.)

And, of course, then hope the selection committee doesn’t forget to give out points just for being Alabama.

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ESPN’s Marcus Spears goes on spectacular rant about LSU beating Alabama

This has to be one of the best TV rants ever.

LSU’s 46-41 win over Alabama didn’t just hand the Crimson Tide their first loss of the season or keep the Tigers’ perfect record alive and playoff chances incredibly high.

The win in Tuscaloosa snapped an eight-game losing streak in this SEC West rivalry series, giving LSU its first W over Alabama since 2011. It proved Ed Orgeron’s team is a serious national championship contender and is arguably one of two top teams have have separated themselves from the rest.

But is was also a win for the entire state of Louisiana, as ESPN analyst and former LSU player Marcus Spears said Tuesday on Get Up during one of the best TV rants ever. He also showed up to the set wearing an LSU sweatshirt over what looks like a dress shirt and tie.

Sometimes it's more than "just a game."

Witness @mspears96 😂😂😂 pic.twitter.com/I2upXKDoFH

— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) November 12, 2019

Spears, who played for Nick Saban when he was still at LSU, said in part, talking to Mike Greenberg with Desmond Howard and Paul Finebaum listening:

“Here’s the thing: This was the state of Louisiana versus the University of Alabama. This was not just about football. This was eight years of pain and agony of watching the LSU Tigers with the coach that was initially at LSU, at Alabama, having success. Saturday was a moment in time that we won’t forget for a long time.

“With the underdog coach! They said they didn’t want [Coach] O. Des, remember? Remember everybody said, ‘That’s not the right hire. Look what he did at Ole Miss!’ And I was standing on the table — G, if this table wouldn’t break down when I got on top of it, I would stand on the table right now — and I said this is the right guy for the job because the players respond.

“And then something crazy happened! Something crazy happened! This guy from Ohio State that couldn’t win a job ended up saying, ‘You know what? I think I’ma go to LSU.’ And then something else crazy happened! They got this guy named Joe Brady from [the] New Orleans Saints!”

Just spectacular. Spears is a great analyst, and his obvious bias can be excused because of the context his rant and emotions add to the reaction to the game several days later.

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College Football Playoff projection: Alabama’s chances still high after LSU loss

The Crimson Tide still have a ridiculously high chance to make the playoff.

If you thought Alabama’s Week 11 loss to LSU on Saturday would severely damage the Crimson Tide’s chance of making the College Football Playoff this year, we have some bad news.

Although it did take a sizable hit, Alabama still has a 40 percent chance to make the playoff but only a nine percent chance to win it all, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. Those numbers plunged from last week, when the team had a 72 and 22 percent chance, respectively, but the Crimson Tide are still No. 4 on this list.

Unlike the weekly College Football Playoff rankings, ESPN’s Playoff Predictor is an algorithm that considers factors like strength of schedule, losses, eventual conference championships, the Football Power Index and the selection committee’s past behavior to determine the top teams’ playoff chances. That last one seems like it’s having a notably impact on these numbers because Alabama has been invited to the playoff previously without winning the SEC championship game, which it won’t play in this year thanks to LSU.

These numbers are assuming the Crimson Tide win out just like they’re expected to. The FPI gives them a 56.4 percent chance to win out as they close the regular season with games against Mississippi State, Western Carolina and Auburn. Alabama does not have a win against a currently ranked team, but with a 64.8 percent chance to beat Auburn at the end of the month, the Playoff Predictor anticipates a win there being enough for a strong playoff push.

With that key win over Alabama, LSU’s chances have obviously skyrocketed. The Tigers’ chance to make the playoff is up to 87 percent from 56 percent last week, while their title chance increased to 17 percent from 10 percent. Still seems a little low, right? That’s probably because the Playoff Predictor is hugely favoring Ohio State.

The Buckeyes still have the best chance to do everything. Their shot to make the playoff keeps getting closer and closer to 100 percent and is up to 89 percent from 85 last week. Their chance to win the national championship is also up four points to 40 percent this week. With Penn State’s loss to Minnesota this week, the Nittany Lions are clearly beatable, so Ohio State is favored to beat them in a couple weeks (and win the Big Ten) even more now.

And don’t forget about Clemson. The defending national champs are No. 3 with an 82 percent chance to make the playoff and a 23 percent chance to win it all again — a number second to only Ohio State. They had a 74 percent chance to make the playoff and a 19 percent chance to have back-to-back titles following Week 10. The Tigers have a significantly lower strength of schedule than the other teams in the top six, but they’re also massively favored to win out and finish another season undefeated.

As the regular season winds down, there’s almost no room for error for these top-4 teams (or room for another one for Alabama) because Oregon and Georgia are just waiting to make a move if they keep winning. Here’s a look at ESPN’s Playoff Predictor list going into Week 12.

1. Ohio State (9-0)

Playoff: 89 percent
Win championship: 40 percent

2. LSU (9-0)

Playoff: 87 percent
Win championship: 17 percent

3. Clemson (10-0)

Playoff: 82 percent
Win championship: 23 percent

4. Alabama (8-1)

Playoff: 40 percent
Win championship: 9 percent

5. Oregon (8-1)

Playoff: 32 percent
Win championship: 3 percent

6. Georgia (8-1)

Playoff: 25 percent
Win championship: 3 percent

7. Oklahoma (8-1)

Playoff: 11 percent
Win championship: 1 percent

8. Penn State (8-1)

Playoff: 11 percent
Win championship: 2 percent

9. Utah (8-1)

Playoff: 7 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

10. Auburn (7-2)

Playoff: 5 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

11. Baylor (9-0)

Playoff: 5 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

12. Minnesota (9-0)

Playoff: 4 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

13. Florida (7-2)

Playoff: 2 percent
Win championship: Less than 1 percent

The remaining teams on the Playoff Predictor list, including Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Cincinnati and Michigan, all have a less than one percent chance to make the playoff. See the full list here.

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