Tag: Nationals Mets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (54-72) stop by Citi Field Friday to start a three-game series with the New York Mets (61-66); first pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Washington has lost two straight road series and four of its last five games against the Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewers.

New York lost six of its last seven games to the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers and has dropped 11 of its last 13 games.

Season series: Mets lead 6-5.

RHP Paolo Espino is Washington’s projected starter. He is 3-4 with a 4.28 ERA (75 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 12 starts and 16 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Washington’s 9-6 loss against the Brewers Saturday.
  • Espino is 1-0 against New York this season with 7 IP 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 3 K in two starts and one relief outing.

LHP Rich Hill is on the mound for the Mets. He is 6-5 with a 4.13 ERA (122 IP, 56 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 24 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-3, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 2 K Saturday at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • Hill lost to Washington June 29 (4-3) while pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays with a stat line of 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 2 K.

Nationals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Mets -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-130) | Mets -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Nationals 5

Money line (ML)

PASS even though I agree with New York being a sizeable favorite here because the Mets (-200) are a little too expensive given how terrible they’ve been over the past month.

New York is just 9-21 over its last 30 games, which is the same previous 30-game mark as Washington, but the Mets were first in the NL East before their freefall whereas the Nationals were sellers at the trade deadline.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the NATIONALS +1.5 (-130) for a half unit because Washington is a much wiser wager in this spot.

The Nationals are 24-23 ATS as road underdogs and 28-28 ATS vs. NL East teams. While the Mets are 14-32 ATS as home favorites despite being 29-17 outright as a home favorite. They’re also just 20-32 ATS against divisional foes.

It’s only a “lean” toward Washington because the Nationals’ bullpen has the worst WAR, xFIP, K-BB% and SIERA in the second half.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-125) for a half unit because of the aforementioned struggles with Washington’s bullpen and the Nationals’ hitting numbers against left-handed pitching. For example, Washington’s lineup ranks second in wRC+ and first in wOBA against left-handed pitching.

However, my reason for just “leaning” to the Over is most of the applicable situational trends point to this being a lower-scoring affair and the sharps are backing the Under while the public is betting the Over, according to Pregame.com.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets Game 1 odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (50-63) and New York Mets (57-55) got in one game Wednesday, a come from behind 8-7 victory for the Mets, however the nightcap was rained out so now the teams will play a doubleheader Thursday. First pitch for Game 1 is set for 12:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Nationals are calling on LHP Sean Nolin (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to make his first major league appearance since 2015. He made six starts that season for Oakland and recorded a 5.28 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 4.7 K/9 in 29 IP.

  • Nolin has a 3.80 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 across 47 1/3 IP in nine starts and two relief appearances at Triple-A this season.
  • The 31-year-old has just eight big league appearances to his name and has compiled a 6.89 ERA and a poor 15/13 K/BB in 31 1/3 IP.

Mets RHP Marcus Stroman (7-11, 2.83 ERA) makes his 25th start of the season. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 127 1/3 IP.

  • Stroman has made 12 starts at home this season, where he has recorded a 3.07 ERA and 7.6 K/9 across 55 2/3 IP.
  • Though he lacks dominant stuff, Stroman does a great job of limiting walks and keeping the ball in the park. He has surrendered just 5 walks and 3 homers in 38 2/3 IP over his past seven starts.

Nationals at Mets Game 1 odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Mets -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-135) | Mets -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Mets 5, Nationals 3

Money line (ML)

Both teams have struggled lately with the Nationals losing seven of their last eight games and the Mets seven of their last nine.

New York comes into the game with a 34-20 record at home, while Washington has struggled to a 21-33 record on the road.

Even so, the line here is pretty steep, so PASS on the money line. 

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Mets have the clear pitching edge in this matchup. Stroman carries a sub-3.00 ERA and the ability to chew up innings while Nolin hasn’t appeared in the majors in six years and has never had success at the highest level.

New York’s offense hasn’t been great lately, as yesterday’s game marked the first time since July 21st it scored more than 5 runs in a game. However, the Mets are in a great spot today against Nolin and a suspect relief corps that will back him up.

Side with the METS -1.5 (+110) as they should do enough to win by more than a single run.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total has gone over in nine of the last 10 for Washington, thanks in large part to their poor pitching that has allowed 6.2 runs per game during that time.

There’s a good chance we see another rough outing on the mound from the Nationals today. Even in a seven-inning game, this total is too low so take OVER 6.5 (-108).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (50-62) stop by Citi Field Tuesday to start a three-game series with the New York Mets (56-55) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Nationals lead 5-3.

RHP Paolo Espino takes the mound for the Nationals. Espino is 3-3 with a 3.66 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in nine starts and 16 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 9-5, with 5 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 3 K against the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday.
  • 2021 road splits: 0-0 with a 4.71 ERA (21 IP, 11 ER), 1.19 WHIP and 4.3 K/BB in two starts and 10 bullpen outings.

RHP Carlos Carrasco makes his third start for the Mets. Carrasco is 0-0 with a 3.24 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 1 BB and 9 K this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K in New York’s 5-3 win at the Miami Marlins Wednesday.

Nationals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Mets -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-112) | Mets -1.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Nationals 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mets (-250) since they are obviously the right side because New York is 12 games above .500 against righty starters and 13 games above .500 at home.

Furthermore, there’s no way I can risk two-and-a-half times my potential return on a Mets team that’s in the midst of a freefall.

New York is 2-8 in the last 10 games, 7-13 in the past 20, and has fallen 2.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for first place in the NL East.

It would appear this is your typically cursed Mets season but since Carrasco is in his first season in New York maybe he hasn’t gotten the memo.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the METS -1.5 (-108) for a tiny wager because New York has an edge in the three most important phases of the game (bullpen, starting pitching and hitting) and is obviously a better price point.

Washington also moved several quality bullpen arms at the trade deadline. Not so coincidently, the Nationals bullpen has the third-most blown saves, second-worst SIERA, second-worst xFIP and second-worst K-BB% since the trade deadline.

It’s only a “lean” because despite New York being buyers at the trade deadline and Washington sellers, the Mets lineup has been much worse than the Nationals since then.

Also, New York has the fourth-worst cover rate against divisional foes at 19-30 ATS and is 13-28 ATS as a home favorite whereas Washington is 21-19 ATS as a road underdog.

For instance, Washington is middle of the pack in hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and WAR while New York ranks in the bottom 6 in each of those categories since the trade deadline.

That said, the Mets’ lineup has a lot more talent and has the third-highest BB/K rate in the second half of the season, which really helps against a Washington pitching staff that’s lost the plate since the All-Star Game.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) because the market is barreling into the Over yet we have a “line freeze” and if anything the total is moving in the opposite direction.

According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the cash wagered is on the Over but the total is still at the 8.50-run opener and the Under is juiced heavier.

The reason for this live movement, or lack thereof, could be the Mets playing in the highest rate of Unders in divisional games and the Nationals playing to the Under at the third-highest rate against NL East foes. And again, both lineups have been terrible this month.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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