The Miami Marlins (31-43) and Washington Nationals (36-36) play the second game of a four-game series at loanDepot park Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Jon Lester (1-2, 3.96 ERA) makes his 11th start for the Nationals. The veteran lefty has a 1.44 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through 50 innings.
- Hard-hit rate is down from recent seasons but his 27.0% fly-ball rate is well above both his career and league averages
- Picked up his first win of the season Saturday by allowing just 2 ER over 6 IP against the New York Mets
RHP Pablo Lopez (3-4, 2.86 ERA) enters his 16th start of 2021. He has compiled a 1.07 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 85 IP.
- Hard-hit and fly-ball rates are both safely below the MLB average but his 3.26 FIP suggests some regression for his career-best ERA
- Pitched 7 scoreless innings on the road against the Nationals April 30 but the Marlins lost 2-1
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Nationals at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:16 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Nationals +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Marlins -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-175) | Marlins -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
Prediction
Marlins 6, Nationals 4
Money line (ML)
The MARLINS (-145) dropped Thursday’s series opener 7-3 but are in a good spot to bounce back and get their first win in the season series against the Nationals. Lopez has been the better of the two starters all season and pitched well against Washington in his April meeting.
Miami has just a .657 team OPS against left-handed pitching this season but Lester has given up a home run in four straight outings and, as noted, is struggling with fly balls.
Miami also has the bullpen advantage over Washington with its relievers combining for a better ERA and xFIP over the last two weeks.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
MARLINS -1.5 (+145) is the better play. This is a heavy fade of Lester while trusting Lopez to pitch deeper into the game. The odds are too heavily skewed by Washington’s five-game winning streak with those victories coming against three different teams and in three different locales.
On a game level, the Nationals are last in baseball with a 29.9% fly-ball rate and will struggle to cause much trouble against Lopez in the pitcher-friendly loanDepot park.
Over/Under (O/U)
Back the OVER 7.5 (-115) on a line too heavily fading the offenses and showing too much trust in the pitching. Both starters and bullpens have been better than the advanced numbers suggest they should be.
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