Can anyone prevent Jacob deGrom from winning the 2020 National League Cy Young Award — which would be his third straight? The gang at BetMGM isn’t making it easy on bettors who think not, installing the Mets ace as the clear favorite at +280.
As of 4:30 p.m. ET Sunday, March 8, BetMGM has 10 other pitchers with a line of less than +3000:
- Max Scherzer (+450)
- Walker Buehler (+1000)
- Jack Flaherty; Stephen Strasburg (+1100)
- Clayton Kershaw (+1200)
- Luis Castillo (+2000)
- Patrick Corbin; Aaron Nola; Yu Darvish; Trevor Bauer (+2500)
National League Cy Young: Breaking down the field
When it comes to projecting a Cy Young winner, you try to go through a process of elimination.
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You don’t get enough return from deGrom. Strasburg is coming the best season of his career, but he has too long an injury history to ignore. The same goes for Kershaw. Opponents have a .208 career batting average against him and he has a career 2.44 ERA, but he hasn’t thrown 180 innings in any of his last four seasons, which limits your opportunities to get wins consistently.
Flaherty has talent and could be primed for a breakout season, but in 66 career starts he has a record of 19-19, which makes winning the Cy Young a spring training stretch — despite him going 7-2 with a 0.91 ERA after the All-Star Break last year. Castillo showed great improvement in 2019, but walks too many players, which leads to too many cheap runs being scored.
When it comes down to placing a wager, I would split the money between two of the top candidates that have solid return rates — Scherzer and Buehler. Scherzer is 35 so there is a concern about age, but in an era dominated by strikeouts, few are better than him. In five seasons in Washington, he has posted a sub-3.00 ERA of each of them and has an astounding 1,371 strikeouts in 1,050 2/3 innings. Last year, despite battling through back problems, he posted 243 strikeouts in 172 1/3 innings and a WHIP of 1.03 (his highest total in five years). He has all the tools.
Put the other half of your bankroll on Buehler. At +1000, there are a lot of things to like about him. The Dodgers have dominated the National League West, winning the last seven division titles and leaving no reason to expect they won’t again in 2020. With concerns over Kershaw’s availability for a full season, Buehler will likely be asked to take on the role of the innings-eating ace. At 25, he is hitting his prime and, with that potent Dodger lineup behind him, 20 wins is a possibility.
THE BET: Scherzer if you’re only betting on one player; Scherzer and Buehler if you’re willing to split your bet.
Want to get some action on MLB futures betting? Do you have what it takes to pick this season’s winners before the season even starts? Place legal sports bets online at BetMGM.
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