It’s November, which means the women’s college basketball season is here.
We’re coming off a year where Dawn Staley’s South Carolina Gamecocks won the national championship, powered by the excellent play of center Aliyah Boston. She’s poised to be the best player in the country again, and the Gamecocks are the favorite to win the title again (+150 at Draft Kings).
But it feels like there’s more parity in the sport this year too. The ACC seems to be wide open after N.C. State graduated four starters, so perhaps Jeff Walz can help Louisville slide into the top spot after a Final Four run last year. Like its men’s team, UNC is ranked in the preseason Top 25 Poll, and the odds for Virginia Tech to surge to a national championship are enticing.
We’ll be missing a few of the game’s stars this season – like Oregon’s Sedona Prince and UConn’s Paige Bueckers – but there are plenty of others to be excited about. Stanford dunker Fran Belibi, Iowa playmaker Caitlin Clark, and the players that make up a No. 5 Tennessee Vols team with a lot of preseason hype are all must-watch this season.
Let’s get into our predictions.
What will be the top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament?
Mitchell Northam: South Carolina, Stanford, Iowa, Louisville
Cole Huff: South Carolina, N.C. State, Stanford, Tennessee
What will be the best mid-major team in the country?
Mitchell: Princeton – The Tigers bring back four starters and 70.7% of their returning scoring from last season and haven’t lost an Ivy League game since 2019. As shown by its preseason ranking in the AP Top 25 Poll, Princeton isn’t just a good mid-major team; it’s one of the best teams in the country. They’ll miss Abby Meyers, who transferred to Maryland, but this group still has Ivy League Tournament MVP Kaitlyn Chen and Ivy Defensive Player of the Year Ellie Mitchell. The Tigers were third in the nation last season in points allowed per 100 possessions. That’s a defense that can power them well into March.
Cole: South Dakota State – What you’re getting with the 2022-23 Jackrabbits is a WNIT championship-winning roster that returns its top-four scorers from a season ago. Before capturing the WNIT title, the Jackrabbits were a win away (the Summit League Final) from reaching the NCAA Tournament. Nevertheless, SDSU should be out for revenge this season and will have additional help Utah transfer Dru Gylten, who should be one of the best floor generals in the conference. I like these Jackrabbits as the best mid-major in the country.
Who will win the Lieberman Award for the best point guard in the country?
Mitchell: Diamond Johnson, N.C. State – The last time Diamond Johnson was a starter – in the 2020-21 season for Rutgers – she put up numbers that no player in the HerHoopStats era (since 2009) has ever matched. You can take a closer look at the criteria here, but in short, Johnson was essentially the only player from a Power 5 team to post a 50-40-90 season. Last year, Johnson came off the bench and was voted ACC Sixth Player of the Year as N.C. State won its third straight conference title and made the Elite Eight. After four starters graduated, the Wolfpack are now Johnson’s team.
Cole: Olivia Miles, Notre Dame – During her true freshman season (2021-22) Olivia Miles looked every bit as good as the prospect she was hyped up to be. She walked right into the ACC, as a teenager, and became the driving force behind a team who made an appearance in the NCAA Tournament’s Sweet 16. She’s got the size to create matchup problems for opposing defenses and that’s before factoring the presumed refinement to her offensive game in Year 2. Any improvement to her 3-point shooting and general turnover issues (3.8 per game) should add to what was already one of the nation’s best passers (7.4 assists per game). I’ve got the Fighting Irish winning the ACC this season, and it’ll be because Olivia Miles will separate herself as the best point guard in the world.
Will anyone other than Aliyah Boston win National Player of the Year?
Mitchell: No. – Boston has been the most dominant player in this sport for at least the past two years. She’s started in every game she’s played in for the Gamecocks and is shooting 54.2% from the floor for her career while averaging a double-double. Last season, Boston was the only player in the country to rank in the top five of both offensive rating (131.3) and defensive rating (63.6), according to HerHoopStats. As long as Boston is on the floor, she’s the best player in the country.
Cole: No. – For all of the reasons that Mitchell mentioned above — she’s just so good. Also, Aliyah is a friend of the site! She spoke with us here at For The Win about her partnership with Orangetheory.
Aliyah Boston and some fans. #ncaaW #WFinalFour pic.twitter.com/IHX2uSsxYM
— Mitchell Northam (@primetimeMitch) April 4, 2022
Which team that made the NCAA Tournament last year won’t make it this year?
Mitchell: Florida State – Aside from the COVID year in 2020, the Seminoles have missed the NCAA Tournament just once since 2005. Indeed, Sue Semrau’s run there was pretty remarkable. But, on paper, it seems unlikely that FSU is going to have the talent to go dancing in Brooke Wyckoff’s first season with the interim tag removed. If you remember, FSU just snuck into the tournament field last season, and they were powered by Morgan Jones, who was the Seminoles only double-digit scorer at 13.8 points per game. Jones is now at Louisville, and FSU’s third-best rebounder and fifth-best scorer – River Baldwin – transferred to N.C. State. And the only player on the team last season who made at least one 3-pointer per game – Sammie Puisis – transferred to USF. Florida State didn’t really go out of its way to reload either, bringing in just one transfer and two freshmen. What’s more, the Seminoles enter this season with just 10 players on their roster. Talent could be one problem for them, and depth could be another.
Cole: Colorado – So, the easy answer for me would be South Dakota, since I already mentioned how South Dakota State is out for revenge. Instead, I’ll pivot to the Pac-12 to talk about why the Buffaloes. Colorado finished fifth in the Pac-12 last season and lost its best player – Mya Hollingshed – to the WNBA. Once you factor that in and realize that they saved their tournament hopes with a late six-game winning streak, it’s easy to imagine them not finishing that high in the standings again. And if the Pac-12 caps out at its usual six NCAA Tournament bids, or even slides to five, Colorado could be in real trouble.
Which team that missed the NCAA Tournament last year will make it this year?
Mitchell: Syracuse – First year Orange head coach Felisha Legette-Jack won a lot with a little at Buffalo, posting five 20-win seasons and going to four NCAA Tournaments with the Bulls. Now she’s back at Syracuse, where her jersey hangs in the rafters, and has the chance to make a real impact at her alma mater. Legette-Jack brought back All-ACC talent Teisha Hyman, but otherwise transformed this roster, bringing in 10 transfers, including four who followed her from Buffalo. One of those former Bulls is Dyaisha Fair, who has been one of the best five scorers in the nation in each of the past three seasons (she averaged 23.4 points per game last year). Two freshmen join Cuse too, one of whom is Lexi McNabb. You might know her father, who once quarterbacked the Philadelphia Eagles to a Super Bowl appearance.
Cole: UCLA – The Bruins make that rise from the WNIT to the Big Dance. Between their star-studded freshman class, highlighted by Kiki Rice, and the return of the Pac-12’s third-leading scorer, Charisma Osbourne, the Bruins are in good shape heading into the year. They’re also getting a healthy Gina Conti, who was an All-ACC talent at Wake Forest a few years back. They’ll have the right balance of youth and experience to make a run at a top-three finish in the conference. Hey, perhaps they’re one of the teams that replaces Colorado.
When you’re the first @Jumpman23 NIL signee, you got it like that! 🙌@kiki_rice0 had a little surprise for her @UCLAWBB teammates and staff. 👀#GoBruins x #Jumpman pic.twitter.com/62vWauTQeo
— UCLA W. Basketball (@UCLAWBB) October 31, 2022
Other Bold Predictions
Mitchell: Virginia Tech will make the Elite Eight, at least.
This roster is simply too talented to not make somewhat of a deep run in March. Let’s start with the transfers, Ashley Owusu and Taylor Soule. At Maryland, Owusu was an All-American, one of the best players in the Big Ten and a Drysdale Award winner, given to the nation’s top two-guard in the country. Soule was a three-time All-ACC selection at Boston College and did a little bit of everything for the Eagles as a versatile forward. Combine those two with Elizabeth Kitley – a preseason All-American this year and the reigning ACC Player of the Year. And then throw in Georgia Amoore, who averaged 11.2 points and 4.4 assists last season, and carried a Kitley-less Virginia Tech to a win over North Carolina in last season’s ACC Tournament. This March will be the Hokies’ third straight trip to the NCAA Tournament, and their stay should last into the second weekend.
Cole: South Carolina will run the table.
Is that bold? The Gamecocks are title favorites and it wouldn’t shock anyone if they repeated as national champions, but going undefeated? That’s tough to do, which is why only nine teams since 1982 have accomplished such a feat. Staley’s Gamecocks will be the 10th.
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