The Louisville Cardinals (7-5) and Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) will square off in the Music City Bowl at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tenn., on Dec. 30 at 4 p.m. ET.
We analyze the Louisville-Mississippi State odds and betting lines, while providing college football betting tips and advice on this matchup.
Louisville at Mississippi State: Three things you need to know
1. Mississippi State ranks 18th in the nation in rushing this season, averaging 227 yards per game. That doesn’t bode well for Louisville, which allowed 517 rushing yards to Kentucky in its most recent game. The Cardinals’ rush defense is 115th in the country (210.8).
2. Louisville’s five losses are all by at least 11 points with an average margin of defeat of 24.2 points. Five of the Bulldogs’ six losses came by at least 10 points, including four by at least 19.
3. Louisville’s first-year head coach Scott Satterfield is 3-0 in his career in bowl games, previously coaching Appalachian State. Mississippi State coach Joe Moorhead lost in his bowl debut as head coach last season, 27-22 to Iowa in the Outback Bowl.
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Louisville at Mississippi State: Odds, betting lines and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Mississippi State 31, Louisville 21
Moneyline (ML)
The Bulldogs won each of their last two games to close out the regular season after losing 38-7 to Alabama. They are 6-1 in their last seven December games, proving to be a tough out late in the year.
Bet the MISSISSIPPI STATE (-167) moneyline, which is a good number to get in at.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Mississippi State returns a profit of $5.99.
Against the Spread (ATS)
Mississippi State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 nonconference games. Louisville, on the other hand, is only 1-6 ATS in its last seven games against the SEC.
Bet MISSISSIPPI STATE (-110) to cover the 3.5-point spread in this one.
Over/Under (O/U)
The over/under is 62.5, which is pretty a high number for these teams. The under has hit in five of the Bulldogs’ last seven games and in each of the last three, though the over is 4-1 in Louisville’s last five.
Still, you should bet the UNDER (-110), given how bad both passing attacks are.
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