Tag: msu spartans

Michigan State vs. Illinois basketball round two statistical preview

No. 25 Michigan State hits the road to take on No. 22 Illinois.

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No. 25 Michigan State is reeling, having lost three straight games and five of their last eight. The Spartans will be looking for a better road result as they travel to take on No. 22 Illinois in Champaign Tuesday night (9:00 ESPN). Michigan State is 1-4 in their last five road conference games, with the lone victory coming against Minnesota.

Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up from a statistical standpoint and where edges can perhaps be gleaned.

Advanced stats and ranks courtesy kenpom.com.

Overview

Michigan State: 16-8 overall, 8-5 Big Ten

-No. 10 in adjusted efficiency

-No. 19 in adjusted offense

-No. 17 in adjusted defense

-No. 101 in adjusted tempo

Illinois: 16-7 overall, 8-4 Big Ten

-No. 27 in adjusted efficiency

-No. 41 in adjusted offense

-No. 25 in adjusted defense

-No. 250 in adjusted tempo

This will be a matchup of two desperate teams. After being tied for the Big Ten lead just two weeks ago, Michigan State and Illinois have lost a combined five straight games. The Illii lost on the road against Iowa and dropped a massive contest at home to Maryland, which vaulted the Terps into the top spot in the Big Ten. If either team wants to keep their shot at the Big Ten alive, this is a must win. Illinois can’t afford to go two games back to Maryland and Michigan State with both of those teams holding tiebreakers over them. Michigan State can’t afford to lose another conference game if they want to crawl their way back into the regular season race. It should be a good game in an absolutely electric environment.

Let’s dive into some specifics.

A note: Four factors is something you will see in these posts a lot. They are four statistical categories that heavily dictate good basketball vs. bad basketball. They are: effective field goal %, turnover %, offensive rebounding %, free throw rate (FTA/FGA). If a team is good at these four things, they are good at basketball.

When Michigan State has the ball

Michigan State Offense four factors: No. 82 in eFG% (effective field goal), No. 94 in turnover %, No. 35 in Oreb%, No. 192 in free throw rate

Illinois defense four factors: No. 55 eFG% against, No. 300 in turnover %, No. 51 in Oreb%, No. 18 in FTR

For the first time all season the Michigan State defense is ranked higher than the Michigan State offense in KenPom. The Spartan offense has been an absolute nightmare on the road, especially in the early part of games. Maybe they figured something out in the second half against Michigan? After scoring only 23 points in the first half, the Spartans scored 45 in the second half. We’ll see. The shooting numbers are certainly troubling as they’ve been in decline for a while and Illinois does a pretty good job in that spot defensively. MSU’s turnover issues plagued them early last week, but they cleaned that up after the first ten minutes against Michigan. They’ll absolutely have to protect the ball, especially considering Illinois does not force turnovers at a high rate. An underrated factor to MSU’s offensive decline has been the plummeting of their free throw rate and with Illinois being one of the best teams in the country at preventing opponents from getting to the line, it’s hard to imagine that changing in this game.

When Illinois has the ball

Illinois offensive four factors: No. 199 in eFG%, No. 148 in turnover %, No. 7 in Oreb%, No. 160 in FTR

Michigan State defensive four factors: No. 3 in eFG% against, No. 325 in turnover %, No. 61 in Oreb% against, No. 91 in FTR

One of these thiiiiings is not like the others.

Illinois is middling at three of the four factors on offense, but, as you can see, they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country. They attack the glass as a team and have one of the best rebounders in the country in Kofi Cockburn. The Michigan State defense is going to do what it always does; play sound man defense and force tough shots that will lead to a lot of rebounds. If Michigan State wants to win Tuesday night, they absolutely cannot get crushed on the glass. It is, by far, Illinois’ biggest strength on offense. Michigan State is capable of having very good rebounding games, but the bigs are going to have to bring it and the guards are going to have to contribute as well. It has to be the number one concern going into this game for Michigan State.

Other key numbers

We always like to look at three-point shooting here and Illinois is quite bad at that. As a team they are 296th in the country in three-point percentage and 324th in 3PA/FGA. In short, they don’t take a ton of threes and they don’t make a ton of threes.

Trent Frazier is their best shooter by volume, shooting 36% on just fewer than five attempts per game. Alan Griffin is also coming on as a shooter. He shoots 39%, but on less consistent volume. Still, he’s liable to take seven threes and make four of them.

Illinois ranks 213th on assists per field goal made. I’d guess a lot of that comes from their offensive rebounding. They get a lot of buckets on putbacks. Outside of that, their highest usage player Ayo Dosunmu plays a fair amount of isolation ball.

Despite Dosunmu’s high volume (he takes 27% of the shots when he’s on the floor) he’s not a very good shooter. His effective field goal percentage is only 50.2% and he struggles from beyond the arc. Where he can be really effective is at the free throw line where he shoots 81%. He doesn’t get there too often–which I think is the best critique of his game–but he certainly has the talent to do it in a given night. Keeping him off the line and forcing tough jumpers will be key.

Illinois is pretty good at limiting opponents’ attempts from three. They rank 57th in that category. I like to look at attempts forced rather than percentages made when evaluating a team’s three-point defense. Sometimes teams get hot and make shots, but a truly good three-point defense limits the amount of threes their opponent takes. Deep shots may be tough to come by for the Spartans.

Conclusion

Illinois is a really good team and it’s hard to win in their building. Add in to that Michigan State’s massive road struggles and this one looks to be an uphill grind for the Spartans. They’re going to have to protect the ball and limit Illinois’ second-chance opportunities. The more they can force the Illini to shoot contested jumpers, the better this will go. This is a huge spot for both teams, which I have highlighted plenty, so I expect a really competitive game. Vegas likes MSU by one point in this one, which I’m sure feels bold for many Spartan fans. KenPom has this one as a 70-69 win for Illinois, at a 51% chance of victory.

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Michigan State reportedly loses assistant Terrence Samuel to UNLV

The former wide receivers coach is headed back to the offensive side of the ball at UNLV

In a time when Michigan State is attempting to add a coach, they just lost another one.

Former wide receivers coach Terrence Samuel, who was swapped to assistant defensive backs coach in the infamous coaching shuffle of 2019, has been hired away by UNLV to be their wide receivers coach and passing game coordinator. ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg first reported to the news.

Samuel has been with Michigan State for nine years, the first eight of which were spent coaching the receivers. During those eight seasons Samuel’s players earned All-Big Ten recognition eight times, including two Big Ten Receivers of the Year in Tony Lippett (2014) and Aaron Burbridge (2015). Five Spartan receivers have been drafted into the NFL since Samuel’s arrival in 2011 and that number could increase this year with Cody White and Darrell Stewart Jr. as potential selections.

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Michigan State drops to No. 25 in USA TODAY Coaches Poll

MSU holds on to the last spot in the rankings after 0-2 week.

The Spartans are still ranked. Barely.

After losing games to Penn State and Michigan last week, the Michigan State Spartans men’s basketball team has fallen to the bottom of the USA TODAY Coaches Poll top 25. In total the Spartans have lost three straight and are 3-5 in their last eight games.

It’s an 11-point plummet for MSU, by far the steepest of any still-ranked team. Michigan State is one of two teams with eight losses in the ranking. The other is No. 24 Texas Tech.

Elsewhere in the Big Ten, Maryland still leads the way holding at No. 9. The Terps are followed by Penn State (13), Iowa (17) and Illinois (23). Ohio State, Purdue, Rutgers and Michigan all received votes.

Michigan State travels to Champagne to take on the No. 23 Illini Tuesday night (9:00 ESPN).

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Irritable Tom Izzo reluctant to give Michigan credit after win

The Michigan State head coach was reluctant to give the Wolverines much credit after their 77-68 win.

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ANN ARBOR, Mich. — It was a stark contrast between head coaches.

Over the course of his tenure at Michigan, Juwan Howard has constantly given credit to his players, win or lose. Had a bad game? He’s not calling anyone out. He’s not making excuses. With Isaiah Livers having been out for the better part of two months, Howard has frequently said, ‘No one is going to feel sorry for us’ about the Wolverines being without one of their best players.

But MSU head coach Tom Izzo went the other way with it.

In his 13 minute press conference, he often noted how injured his center Xavier Tillman is, how much point guard Cassius Winston has on his mind. Assuredly, both things are quite true, and both are reasons for the Spartans’ struggles at Crisler Center on Saturday.

But when asked how much of what Michigan did, in this case, specifically with forward Isaiah Livers returning to the lineup — Livers did not play against MSU in early January — Izzo demurred entirely.

“Listen, how much different would we be with Josh Langford?” Izzo shot back. “Almost everybody’s got one of your two best players out. You’re gonna be different. But, at the same time, I think today, what we did with other players: Simpson goes 4-for-7 from the three. He hasn’t done that in weeks. That’s — give him credit. He’s a competitive kid. Isaiah — love Isaiah. I think he’s a very good player. But Isaiah didn’t beat us. Johns has been playing very well. They’re gonna be better with a veteran in there. But our freshmen just aren’t ready. Our freshmen have been struggling a little bit. It’s gonna happen.”

Michigan State didn’t do as well in transition as it normally does. The Spartans are 25th in the country in offensive efficiency, but only got 4 points off turnovers and 2 fast break points against the Wolverines.

It was a point of emphasis, Michigan coach Juwan Howard said after the game, but Izzo said he wasn’t confident that the Wolverines did much to stifle MSU defensively as much as his team was stifling itself.

That’s where he really got into some player blame — again, an odd contrast.

“I don’t know if people are taking it away or if we’re taking it away, to be honest with you,” Izzo said. “I think that’s where the fatigue of Winston and Xavier are hurting this team. And then the freshmen go in there, and they’re not just ready for that.

“We’re going to have to do a much better job. We probably did a decent job with Cassius the first half, trying to get him open for timeouts, stuff like that. He’s not the same yet. He’s working his way back in. We expect a lot of him because he’s got a lot to give, but he’s been through a lot. We’re trying to understand some of the decision-making and trying to help him through it. Fatigue becomes a factor. Part of fatigue has been sleeping and resting and doing the things in particular that are difficult for him to do.”

At the end, Izzo decided to give a closing statement, where he seemed to indicate that Michigan point guard Zavier Simpson — who hit 4-of-7 three-pointers, as mentioned, wasn’t supposed to have a solid game from deep as he did.

“Our start was poor, middle was really good, our end was poor and Michigan played good,” Izzo said. “Some guys hit some shots that weren’t supposed to. And I thought we missed some layups that you’re supposed to make.”

To each their own, we guess.

Locked On Spartans Podcast: Michigan State beats Georgia

The Spartans rebound at the Maui Invitational

Wil and Matt discuss Michigan State losing beating Anthony Edwards and Georgia. Why do star players keep going off against MSU? Is Xavier Tillman actually playing OK? Does Dave Pasch secretly hate Bill Walton?

You can find the episode on iTunes, Spotify, and Google Podcasts.

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Michigan State outlasts Georgia, Anthony Edwards in Maui Invitational

The Spartans start hot, hold on late out in Hawaii

What a difference a half makes.

In the battle of the Toms, it was Izzo’s bunch getting the best of the Crean crew as Michigan State held off Georgia and soon-to-be top pick Anthony Edwards 93-85 in the Maui Jim Maui Invitational consolation round.

A day after the Spartan offense was perpetually stuck in the mud, MSU came out flying on offense in the first half en route to a 52-31 lead. Aided by some questionable Bulldog defense, Michigan State looked like a completely new team compared to the group that saw its run through Maui end early at the hands of Virginia Tech. The turnovers and fouls were down and the shooting and passing were much improved.

The second half was a different story with the Spartans first extending their lead only to see it chipped away by the other-worldly play of Edwards. Combine that with the MSU offense getting bogged down after Georgia switched to a zone and things went from boring to tense in short order. Led by hot shooting of the highly-touted freshman Edwards, Georgia strung together a scoring surge that shrunk a 28-point lead down to just two with five minutes left in the game. The steady hand of Cassius Winston and timely threes from Aaron Henry and Xavier Tillman would ensure Georgia would get no closer.

Still, it was hard to watch the game without Edwards being the big story. Full-court bounce passes, thirty-foot jumpers and everything in-between, Edwards did it all and showed everyone watching why he is projected to be taken in the top three of the 2020 NBA Draft. He led all scorers with 37 points including 33 in the second half. Edwards also chipped in 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 4 steals and 3 blocks.

It was an incredible display and the fourth time in this short season that Michigan State has felt the full-powered wrath of an opposing star player.

In the first half Cassius Winston–a few hours after scoring just seven points on ten shots–looked like his usual self hitting shots from deep and making smooth dishes to teammates for easy buckets on his way to 28 points and 8 assists. Aaron Henry was aggressive from the jump, getting to the cup with ease and even hitting a silky sky hook, finishing with 14 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists. Tillman would finish with a double double notching 15 points to go with 11 rebounds. Even Foster Loyer had it going early, bouncing back from a disappointing outing with two big threes to help spur an extended 34-9 Michigan State run the paved the way for the big halftime lead.

First-Half Michigan State was the team many of the Spartan faithful that made the 4,346 miles journey from East Lansing to Maui expected to see. The Spartans had energy and were much more aggressive from the jump even on plays that didn’t fully pan out, like Gabe Brown getting fouled while attempting to posterize a Georgia Bulldog, but coming up just short or Malik Hall actually cashing in on a hammer dunk, but getting a technical foul for taunting his victim.

They just couldn’t keep it up for two halves, something that has become a theme early in the season and will certainly need to be cleaned up.

Michigan State moves to the fifth place game where they will play the winner of Chaminade vs. UCLA.

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Locked On Spartans Podcast: Trouble in Paradise

Michigan State loses to Virginia Tech in Maui.

Wil and Matt discuss Michigan State losing to Virginia Tech out in Maui. Matt declares the Foster Loyer experiment to be over. Wil thinks Xavier Tillman is pressing early in the season.

You can find the episode on iTunes, Spotify, and Google Podcasts.

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Michigan State hockey ranked No. 20 in latest USCHO poll

MSU is back in the national rankings after a long absence.

Michigan State hockey is back*!

(*in the national rankings.)

It has been a long downturn for the MSU men’s hockey program, but for the first time in a long time the program looks to be on a stable path forward.

After a weekend in which the Spartans took four of a possible six points from No. 3 Notre Dame, MSU finds themselves nationally ranked, coming in at No. 20 in the latest USCHO poll.

The Spartans are 6-5-1 overall with a 4-1-1-0 record in the Big Ten. They have wins over No. 3 Notre Dame and No. 6 Penn State this season.

MSU hits the road for a weekend set in Columbus against the No. 11 Buckeyes.

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Michigan State football No. 40 in ESPN’s latest SP+ rankings

The Spartans don’t move much after a pretty neutral win over Rutgers.

A win over Rutgers didn’t do much for Michigan State in the eyes of Bill Connelly’s computer.

The Spartans are at No. 40 this week in Connelly’s SP+ rankings. Michigan State ranks 86th in offense, 12th in defense and 114th in special teams. MSU is a projected 7.6 points better than an average college football team on a neutral field.

MSU’s upcoming opponent, Maryland, is rated 88th in SP+, although the Terps have been in a bit of a free fall lately. They’re ranked No. 73 on offense, No. 82 on defense and No. 127 on special teams. They’re a projected 5.7 points worse than an average college football team on a neutral field.

SP+, according to Connelly, is “(A) tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.”

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Halftime thoughts: Michigan State sloppy, leads Rutgers

Michigan State’s quest to get back in the win column is going about as well as the rest of the season has gone. The difference today is the team on the other side of the field. Michigan State leads Rutgers 17-0 at the half. Here are some thoughts: …

Michigan State’s quest to get back in the win column is going about as well as the rest of the season has gone. The difference today is the team on the other side of the field.

Michigan State leads Rutgers 17-0 at the half. Here are some thoughts:

  • Cody White has 57 catches in the first half. Don’t look it up. There’s no need. It’s true.
  • It’s really nice to have Speedy Nailor back. He’s so obviously a different level runner than anyone else MSU has on offense. He absolutely cooked his man on a dee shot and might have had a long TD had the Rutgers defender not grabbed him for an obvious PI.
  • It’s pretty easy to see why Rutgers hasn’t won a Big Ten game in more than two years. Woof. The talent just isn’t even near where it needs to be.
  • Matt Coghlin back? It’s not much, but Coghlin has kicked the ball well the last three weeks, going 4/4 in field goals. He easily hit from 46 yards in the first half. In a lost season, it’d be nice for Coghlin to get his confidence back down the stretch.
  • Coghlin hit the upright from 33 yards after MSU returned an INT to the Rutgers 15 and proceeded to do nothing with it.

  • Not great, Bob.
  • Michigan State has been stopped twice on 4th-and-1 well into Rutgers territory.

  • The two-minute drill looks good again and results in a late touchdown. It’s really too bad MSU can’t take some of their two-minute principles and infuse them into the regular offense.
  • Above all else, Michigan State has just been so sloppy today. Beyond even what they’ve done in previous games. In week 11 it just reeks of a team being unprepared and unfocused.
  • The defense has been solid so credit them for that. We must keep in mind the opponent. Rutgers has been very unimpressive on offense.

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