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The Toronto Argonauts and the defending Grey Cup champion Montreal Alouettes meet in the East final Saturday. Kickoff from Percival-Molson Memorial Stadium is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET (CFL+ / TSN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Argonauts vs. Alouettes odds, and make our expert CFL picks and predictions.
The Argonauts are coming off a 58-38 win as 6.5-point favorites over the visiting Ottawa Redblacks in the East semifinal Nov. 2 with the Over (53) hitting. QB Chad Kelly was 18-of-20 passing for 358 yards with 4 TDs while rushing for another.
Toronto went 10-8 in the regular season. Once Kelly rejoined the team in Week 12 — after serving a 9-game suspension — the Argonauts went 5-4 against the spread (ATS) and 6-3 Over/Under (O/U). Kelly finished with 10 passing TDs and 8 INTs in 9 regular-season games.
The Alouettes finished first in the division with a 12-5-1 regular-season record. Before they clinched an opening-round playoff bye in Week 17, they were 8-6 ATS and 6-8 O/U. QB Cody Fajardo threw 16 TDs and 7 INTs in 14 games in the regular season.
The Argonauts went 2-1 straight up/ATS against the Alouettes this season, with the O/U also going 2-1. In the most recent meeting Sept. 28 — after Montreal had already clinched first in the East — Toronto won 37-31 as a 2-point home underdog while the Over (51.5) cashed.
In last year’s East final, Montreal upset Toronto 38-17 as a 10.5-point road underdog with the Over (51.5) hitting. The Alouettes recorded 9 turnovers, including 4 INTs by Kelly.
Argonauts at Alouettes odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:55 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Argonauts +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Alouettes -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Argonauts +2.5 (-110) | Alouettes -2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 52.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Argonauts at Alouettes key injuries
Argonauts
- OL Isiah Cage (hip) out
- WR Damonte Coxie (knee) questionable
- DB Jamie Harry (hip) out
- LB Jonathan Jones (hamstring) out
- DB Robert Priester (shoulder) out
- WR Richie Sindani (rib) out
Alouettes
- OL Joshua Donovan (knee) out
- DL Mustafa Johnson (knee) out
- DB Tysen Otis-Copeland (abdominals) out
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Argonauts at Alouettes picks and predictions
Prediction
Argonauts 33, Alouettes 27
Moneyline
The Argonauts are 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games, and the 1 loss was a 31-30 setback in OT at the Edmonton Elks Oct. 25 while resting multiple key starters.
The Alouettes have been cruising over the last 4 games, going 1-3 straight up, after clinching first in the East so early into the season. It’ll be too hard for them to ramp up the intensity all of a sudden, especially against an Argos team that they embarrassed in the East final last season.
BET ARGONAUTS (+100).
Against the spread
Taking 2.5 isn’t worth it when you can play the Argonauts straight up at plus money. If this number hits 3 at any point, then that’s a different story.
At 2.5, PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Over has hit in 3 straight Argonauts games, with Toronto putting up 30 or more points in each outing. The Argonauts are 5-1 O/U in their last 6 games and have scored 30 or more in 6 of their last 7.
The Over has cashed in 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams. With Toronto coming off a 58-point outing in the East semifinal, I want no part of betting the Under in this spot.
BET OVER 52.5 (-110).
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