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The 14th-seeded Montana State Bobcats (25-9) will look for an NCAA Tournament first-round upset of the 3-seed Kansas State Wildcats (23-9) in Greensboro, N.C., Friday at 9:40 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Montana State vs. Kansas State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
The 13th-ranked Wildcats come in battle-tested from the Big-12. Against an extremely difficult schedule, Kansas State limited teams to 68.7 points per game, while scoring 75.8 PPG. The Bobcats limited opponents to 66.3 points, but of course faced an easier schedule in the Big Sky.
Montana State ranked 39th this season at 47.2% FG and averaged 74 points, but is overmatched against Kansas State and its length down low.
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Montana State vs. Kansas State odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:26 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Montana State +280 (bet $100 to win $280) | Kansas State -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Montana State +7.5 (-105) | Kansas State -8.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 139.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Montana State vs. Kansas State picks and predictions
Prediction
Kansas State 68, Montana State 62
Moneyline
PASS.
Kansas State, despite 9 losses, was still able to manage a 3-seed coming from the Big-12 and facing the best teams in the country.
Montana State is not one of those opponents and the Wildcats at -340 is not worth a wager. If you are adding plays to a parlay, this should be one of the safest plays of the first round. But do not wager this number straight.
Against the spread
MONTANA STATEe +7.5 (-105).
Kansas State has major advantages over the Bobcats. This will show in the rebounding margin and 2nd-chance points. Even though Kansas State will outrebound Montana State, the Bobcats still come in ranked top 40 in FG% in the nation at 47.2%. If they can continue to hit shots here, the ability for them to keep the game within 8 points is high.
Kansas State, which ranks 13th in 3-point percentage, will not need to do so in this game. With the size advantage inside, the Wildcats will rely on the post-game and with these shots not accounting for as many points as a 3-point shot, the game will also remain closer than expected.
I do not expect Montana State to win. But it can keep the game within 8 points.
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Over/Under
UNDER 139.5 (-108)
With the Wildcats allowing 68.7 points and Montana State only averaging 74.0 this game smells like an Under.
The Wildcats have gone Under the total in its last 5 games against a team with a win percentage above .600. The Under has also hit in 5 of 6 games for Kansas State following a loss.
While Montana State does not provide the challenge of a Big 12 team to the Wildcats, the Bobcats defense will provide enough of an impediment to keep this game from getting out of hand and going Over 139.5.
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