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UFC on ESPN 40: Vicente Luque vs. Geoff Neal odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 40 bout odds and lines between Vicente Luque vs. Geoff Neal, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a welterweight bout on the main card, Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 40 — also known as UFC Vegas 59 — at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 40 Luque vs. Neal odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+ with the prelims starting at 7 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET.

Luque takes the walk to the octagon looking for redemption after suffering a unanimous-decision (UD) loss to Belal Muhammad in mid-April in a rematch of their epic UFC 205 bout which went in favor of the Brazilian. Perhaps a win here sets up a trilogy matchup.

Not only did Luque lose last time out, but it was the first time in 5 outings he failed to record a stoppage, too. His previous 4 bouts resulted in a pair of submission wins, a KO/TKO of Randy Brown, and a TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage against Niko Price at UFC 249.

The 31-year-old Neal looks to build upon a split-decision win over Santiago Ponzinibbio last time out at UFC 269, halting a 2-bout losing skid in the process. His last 3 bouts have gone the distance, going 1-2 with a pair of UD setbacks to Neil Magny and Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson.

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UFC on ESPN 40 Luque vs. Neal odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.

Fight result (2-way line): Luque -205 (bet $205 to win $100) | Neal +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
Total rounds: Over 2.5 (+102) | Under 2.5 (-140)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+105) | No (-145)

[tipico]

UFC on ESPN 40 Luque vs. Neal picks and predictions

Records: Luque (21-8-1) | Neal (14-4-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

Luque (-205) is a little on the pricey side, costing you over 2 times your potential return. Instead, let’s dig a little deeper and figure out a more cost-effective strategy.

The Brazilian fighter has had 21 of his 30 career pro bouts finish inside the distance. However, he went the distance last time out, and Neal has needed the judges to decide his fate in each of his last 3 trips to the octagon.

As such, play LUQUE BY POINTS (+255) for a much nicer value.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (+105): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a strong play here. While yes, Luque has ended up needing the judges to get involved in just 1 of his past 5 outings, he has gone the distance in 3 of the previous 7 bouts.

For Neal, he hasn’t had a stoppage in the past 3 fights, while going the distance in 4 of his past 6 bouts, too.

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UFC on ESPN 40: Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 40 bout odds and lines between Thiago Santos vs. Jamahal Hill, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a light heavyweight bout in the main event, Thiago Santos and Jamahal Hill meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 40 — also known as UFC Vegas 59 — at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN 40 Santos vs. Hill odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+ with the prelims starting at 7 p.m. ET and the main card at 10 p.m. ET.

Santos limps into this bout with a 1-4 record across his last 5 showings, including a unanimous-decision (UD) loss to Magomed Ankalaev last time out in the main event at UFC Vegas 50 in mid-March.

The lone victory for Santos during the 5-fight stretch was a UD win over Johnny Walker in the main event in early Oct. 2021. Each of his last 3 fights, and 4 of his last 5, have resulted in decisions.

The 31-year-old Hill has been on a more upward trajectory, winning his last 2 fights via first-round KO/TKOs, including last time out in mid-February against Walker. Four of his last 5 bouts have finished in the 1st round, and his last fight to go the distance came in Jan. 2020 against Darko Stosic, a win via UD.

Hill takes the walk to the octagon with a 2-inch height advantage and a 3-inch advantage in reach. The southpaw also holds a big 7.06-to-3.77 significant strikes landed per minute advantage.

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UFC on ESPN 40 Santos vs. Hill odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:44 a.m. ET.

Fight result (2-way line): Santos +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Hill -340 (bet $340 to win $100)
Total rounds: Over 2.5 (+130) | Under 2.5 (-180)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+245) | No (-380)

[tipico]

UFC on ESPN 40 Santos vs. Hill picks and predictions

Records: Santos (22-10-0) | Hill (10-1-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

Hill (-340) will cost you nearly 3.5 times your potential return, and that’s just too risky. Instead, let’s get specific.

First off, Hill doesn’t go very deep into matches. His UFC debut went the distance against Stosic in Jan. 2020, and he has been to Round 2 just once in the past 5 outings since. Look for HILL BY TKO/KO (-165) to cash.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-380): Fight to go the distance is just too expensive, so avoid it. If you really have your heart set on playing an Over/Under, look to UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-180), although I don’t love it, as that’s still a lot of chalk for my liking.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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UFC 277: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Anthony Smith odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 277 bout odds and lines between Magomed Ankalaev vs. Anthony Smith, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a light heavyweight bout on the main card, Magomed Ankalaev and Anthony Smith meet Saturday at UFC 277 at American Airlines Arena in Dallas. Below, we analyze the UFC 277 Ankalaev vs. Smith odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the early prelims starting at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Ankalaev lost his UFC debut against Paul Craig in a 3rd-round submission back in March 2018. He has won 8 straight fights since, including 4 KO/TKO wins and 4 unanimous-decision victories.

The 30-year-old Ankalaev has recorded 3 straight UD wins, including a victory over Thiago Santos in mid-March. He stands an inch shorter than his counterpart while he has a 1-inch reach disadvantage, too. However, he holds a 3.49-to-3.03 significant strikes landed per minute advantage and is much more accurate with those strikes than Smith at 63.52% to just 50.93%.

The Russian fighter has also wowed the judges with his takedown ability, going for a 1.01 takedown average to just 0.46 for Smith. However, the latter has a 0.77 submission average, while Ankalaev has never won via that method.

Smith has recorded 3 consecutive finishes, including a submission last time out over Ryan Spann in September. He’s had 3 consecutive Round 1 victories, 2 via submission and 1 via TKO.

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UFC 277 Ankalaev vs. Smith odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:51 p.m. ET.

Fight result (2-way line): Ankalaev -650 (bet $650 to win $100) | Smith +420 (bet $100 to win $420)
Total rounds: Over 2.5 (-175) | Under 2.5 (+125)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-140) | No (+102)

[tipico]

UFC 277 Ankalaev vs. Smith picks and predictions

Records: Ankalaev (17-1-0) | Smith (36-16-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

Ankalaev (-650) is a heavy favorite in the first fight of the main card. Smith has done some amazing things lately, including a pair of submission wins and a TKO via doctor’s stoppage against Jimmy Crute across his last 3 fights. As such, it’s tempting to play Smith as the heavy underdog.

However, the Russian fighter is the play, but you have to get specific, as playing him straight up costs you over 6 times your potential return. Instead, focus on the method of victory, taking ANKALAEV BY TKO/KO (+125). He has never won via submission, so there is no reason to consider that method. The worry is that his last 3 fights have gone the distance.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (+102): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is a strong play at plus-money, as if you like Ankalaev to get the finish, why not take advantage of this prop, too?

Consider UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+125), too. Smith’s last 3 fights have each failed to make it past Round 1, and the concern is about Ankalaev since he has had the judges decide his fate in the past 3 outings.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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UFC 277: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Alex Perez odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 277 bout odds and lines between Alexandre Pantoja vs. Alex Perez, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a flyweight bout on the main card, Alexandre Pantoja and Alex Perez meet Saturday at UFC 277 at American Airlines Arena in Dallas. Below, we analyze the UFC 277 Pantoja vs. Perez odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the early prelims starting at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Pantoja posted a 2nd-Round submission victory via rear-naked choke against Brandon Royval last time out in August 2021. He headed into that bout with a knee injury, and it worsened during the fight so much that he needed surgery and hasn’t fought since.

Pantoja was actually offered a title shot against Brandon Moreno at UFC 269 in mid-December and he had to turn it down as he still wasn’t recovered.

Perez did fight for a title last time out, but he was submitted after just 1:57 at UFC 255 against Deiveson Figueiredo in Nov. 2020. He had his last 4 bouts canceled due to various reasons, including the birth of a son.

The past 3 fights for Perez have resulted in finishes, with the submission loss to Figueiredo, a 1st-Round KO/TKO against Jussier Formiga at UFC 250, and a 1st-Round submission win over Jordan Espinosa in late Jan. 2020.

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UFC 277 Pantoja vs. Perez odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:21 a.m. ET.

Fight result (2-way line): Pantoja -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Perez +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-113) | No (-120)

[tipico]

UFC 277 Pantoja vs. Perez picks and predictions

Records: Pantoja (24-5-0) | Perez (24-6-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

This is a difficult fight to handicap, mainly because we haven’t seen either of these fighters in a long time.

However, Pantoja (-200) is the moderate favorite because he holds a 2-inch reach advantage. He also has 2 straight victories in his most recent showings, while the last time we saw Perez he was being tapped by Figueiredo in less than 2 minutes.

It’s risky to play Pantoja straight up, though. Instead, look to PANTOJA BY POINTS (+175) for method of victory. While Perez has 3 straight finishes, both of these fighters are likely to be rather sluggish after long layoffs.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-113): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is the lean here. There are questions about the cardio of each fighter after a long hiatus, but that means both fighters are likely to be rather slow to engage. The avenue to victory will be by wowing the judges with takedowns and big kicks.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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UFC 277: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 277 bout odds and lines between Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout on the main card, Derrick Lewis and Sergei Pavlovich meet Saturday at UFC 277 at American Airlines Arena in Dallas. Below, we analyze the UFC 277 Lewis vs. Pavlovich odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the early prelims starting at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Lewis, a.k.a. “The Black Beast”, has had 5 consecutive KO/TKO fights and picked up 3 wins along that stretch. His last fight against Tai Tuivasa at UFC 271 resulted in a 2nd-Round loss. The last decision for Lewis was a unanimous-decision victory against Ilir Latifi at UFC 247 in February 2020.

Pavlovich takes the walk to the octagon with a 5-inch reach advantage. He also holds a 6.08-to-2.56 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Lewis is the fighter most likely to score points via the takedown.

Pavlovich doesn’t mess around on the ground. He has 3 straight wins via KO/TKO, all in the 1st Round. That includes a victory in mid-March against Shamil Abdurakhimov, as well as wins over Maurice Greene and Marcelo Golm. He is 3-0 since losing his UFC debut against Alistair Overeem in November 2018.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 277 Lewis vs. Pavlovich odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:04 a.m. ET.

Fight result (2-way line): Lewis +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Pavlovich -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Total rounds: Over 1.5 (+120) | Under 1.5 (-165)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+360) | No (-650)

[tipico]

UFC 277 Lewis vs. Pavlovich picks and predictions

Records: Lewis (26-9-0) | Pavlovich (15-1-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

PAVLOVICH (-160) is a solid value as a moderate favorite. He heads into the octagon with a tremendous 84-inch reach, 5 more inches than Lewis. That will keep Lewis at a distance, which is good news since “The Black Beast” holds the UFC knockout record.

In fact, look for Pavlovich to give Lewis a taste of his own medicine. Moving in and out, using his reach advantage to pick and choose the right time for a knockout opportunity at this leisure. PAVLOVICH BY TKO/KO (-105) is the best chance for a win in method of victory.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-650): Fight to go the distance is not worth playing. Any wager costing you this much for such a little return and not a good long-term betting strategy.

Instead, look to round block betting, playing PAVLOVICH IN ROUND 2 (+380) and PAVLOVICH IN ROUND 3 (+1000) for the win. Yes, you’ll lose one of those ends even if he wins in Rounds 2-3, but you’ll still be well ahead, especially if he gets the 3rd-Round finish.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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UFC 277: Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 277 bout odds and lines between Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a flyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara-France meet Saturday at UFC 277 at American Airlines Arena in Dallas. Below, we analyze the UFC 277 Moreno vs. Kara-France odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the early prelims starting at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Moreno will be fighting somebody different than Deiveson Figueiredo for the first time since knocking out Brandon Royval in Nov. 2020. The first Figueiredo fight at UFC 256 was a draw, the rematch at UFC 263 was a submission win for Moreno, and Figueiredo posted a unanimous-decision victory at UFC 270 in late January.

Moreno’s loss last time out was his first since a unanimous-decision loss to Alexandre Pantoja in May 2018, which sent him briefly to the LFA promotion after back-to-back losses.

These fighters met at UFC 245 in mid-December 2019, with Moreno picking up the unanimous-decision victory.

Kara-France rebounded from a submission loss to Royval in September 2020 by winning each of his last 3 bouts to re-position himself for a title shot. He recorded a unanimous-decision victory against Askar Askarov last time out in late March, and he had consecutive Round 1 KO/TKO wins over Cody Garbrandt and Rogerio Bontorin in the 2 fights prior.

Kara-France holds a 4.84-to-3.54 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Moreno has a slight 1-inch reach advantage and 3-inch height advantage. The Mexican fighter is also strong in the takedown category, posting a 1.84 takedown average to just 0.43 for Kara-France.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 277 Moreno vs. Kara-France odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 5:47 a.m. ET.

Fight result (2-way line): Moreno -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Kara-France +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
Total rounds: Over 4.5 (-180) | Under 4.5 (+130)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-150) | No (+110)

[tipico]

UFC 277 Moreno vs. Kara-France picks and predictions

Records: Moreno (19-6-2) | Kara-France (24-9-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

Moreno (-220) will cost you more than 2 times your potential return straight up, which is a little too much. These fighters met previously, and while Moreno won it came by unanimous decision. So there is some risk here.

Moreno can win fights in a multitude of ways, however, and submissions are his specialty. He is 19-6-2 in 27 pro career bouts, with 11 wins and no losses via submission. That includes 3 submission wins at the UFC level, including against Figueiredo at UFC 263.

Still, based on the previous fight, and the fact that 3 of the last 6 fights for the former champ have gone the distance, take MORENO BY POINTS (+127) as the safe play.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (-180) is a little on the expensive side, but it’s not a bad play if you’d like a little wiggle room in the event of a late finish in Round 5.

Still, the best play is YES (-150): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE.

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Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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UFC 277: Julianna Peña vs. Amanda Nunes odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 277 bout odds and lines between Julianna Peña vs. Amanda Nunes, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a women’s bantamweight championship bout in the co-main event, Julianna Peña and Amanda Nunes meet Saturday at UFC 277 at American Airlines Arena in Dallas. Below, we analyze the UFC 277 Peña vs. Nunes odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the early prelims starting at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, the prelims starting at 8 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View.

Peña, a.k.a. “The Venezuelan Vixen”, stunned the world with a submission win over Nunes at UFC 269 in December as she snatched the belt from the Brazilian. Now, Nunes looks to get it back.

Physically, these two fighters are evenly matched. Nunes holds a 2-inch height advantage, while each has an identical 69-inch reach. Nunes has a 4.55-to-3.36 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Peña has managed a 67.04% significant strikes accuracy percentage to just 56.84% for Nunes.

The takedown average and takedown accuracy percentages are generally the same for the two fighters, too, and the submission average lead for Peña is rather negligible at 0.91-to-0.82.

Peña has won 2 straight fights via submission and 4 of her last 5 fights have ended via that method — although 2 were submission losses. She has gone the distance just 3 times in her 8 fights at the UFC level.

Nunes looks to bounce back after that stunning submission loss at UFC 269. The Brazilian fighter has finished inside the distance in 5 of her last 7 bouts. She’s won 3 by way of KO/TKO, 2 by way of unanimous decision and has 1 submission win and loss along that span.

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UFC 277 Peña vs. Nunes odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 5:33 a.m. ET.

Fight result (2-way line): Peña +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Nunes -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
Total rounds: Over 2.5 (-120) | Under 2.5 (-113)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+165) | No (-240)

[tipico]

UFC 277 Peña vs. Nunes picks and predictions

Records: Peña (12-4-0) | Nunes (21-5-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

Nunes (-290) is considered the challenger here because Peña holds the belt, but it’s fully expected that the Brazilian fighter takes it back. Perhaps that sets up a trilogy fight down the road.

I think the former champ comes in with a chip on her shoulder, and playing NUNES BY TKO/KO (+122) is a value play at plus-money. In 26 career pro bouts, “The Lioness” is 21-5-0 with a 13-2 mark via KO/TKO.

Over/Under (O/U)

The bout ended in Round 2 with Nunes tapping out the last time these fighters squared off. We won’t have another long fight here, either. However, No (-240): Fight to go the distance is just too risky. Instead, take a chance on UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-113), as that prop has cashed in 4 of the last 6 fights for Nunes.

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Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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UFC Fight Night 208: Paddy Pimblett vs. Jordan Leavitt odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 208 bout odds and lines between Paddy Pimblett vs. Jordan Leavitt, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a lightweight bout on the main card, Paddy Pimblett and Jordan Leavitt meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 208 at O2 Arena in London. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 208 Pimblett vs. Leavitt odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims starting at noon ET, followed by the main card at 3 p.m ET.

Pimblett has gone from prospect to up-and-coming star at the UFC level. His first 2 fights at the UFC have resulted in a 1st-round KO/TKO victory over Luigi Vendramini and a 1st-round submission win over Kazula Vargas last time out in mid-March.

Leavitt is coming off a split-decision victory over Trey Ogden in mid-April in his most recent fight. He’s recorded stoppage victories in 2 of his 4 fights in the UFC, including a submission win and a KO/TKO. Leavitt, a.k.a. “The Monkey King”, has gone the distance 4 times in 11 career bouts, going 1-0 via KO/TKO and 6-0 via submission.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 208 Pimblett vs. Leavitt odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 2:27 p.m. ET.

Fight result (2-way line): Pimblett -270 (bet $270 to win $100) | Leavitt +200 (bet $100 to win $200)
Total rounds: Over 2.5 (+135) | Under 2.5 (-190)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+210) | No (-320)

[tipico]

UFC Fight Night 208 Pimblett vs. Leavitt picks and predictions

Records: Pimblett (18-3-0) | Leavitt (10-1-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

Pimblett (-270) will cost you over two and a half times your potential return, which is not a good long-term betting strategy. So let’s get a little more specific.

Pimblett will be fighting in front of a pro-Pimblett crowd in his native England. He also sports a 2-inch reach advantage and a 6.07-to-2.49 significant strikes landed per minute advantage.

I can easily see PIMBLETT BY KO/TKO (+225), and that’s too hard to pass up for a chance to more than double up.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-320): Fight to go the distance is not a recommended play, even though I think Pimblett easily gets the finish.

Instead, do a 2-round block on Pimblett. If you take PIMBLETT TO WIN IN ROUND 2 (+380) and PIMBLETT TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+800), you’ll lose one end if he wins in Rounds 2-3, but you’ll still be quite a bit ahead.

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Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

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UFC Fight Night 208: Jack Hermansson vs. Chris Curtis odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 208 bout odds and lines between Jack Hermansson vs. Chris Curtis, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a middleweight bout on the main card, Jack Hermansson and Chris Curtis meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 208 at O2 Arena in London. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 208 Hermansson vs. Curtis odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims starting at noon ET, followed by the main card at 3 p.m ET.

Hermansson is looking to bounce back after a split-decision loss to Sean Strickland last time out in the main event in early Feb. He has alternated wins and losses across his last 6 fights, with 3 straight decisions (1-2).

Curtis will take his 4th walk to the octagon under the UFC banner. He posted a unanimous-decision victory over Rodolfo Vieira in his last bout June 25. His first 2 UFC fights ended via KO/TKO (2-0).

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 208 Hermansson vs. Curtis odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 2:24 p.m. ET.

Fight result (2-way line): Hermansson -114 (bet $114 to win $100) | Curtis -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Total rounds: Over 2.5 (-130) | Under 2.5 (-105)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+110) | No (-150)

[tipico]

UFC Fight Night 208 Hermansson vs. Curtis picks and predictions

Records: Hermansson (22-7-0) | Curtis (29-8-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

The 34-year-old HERMANSSON (-114) is the play in this near coin-flip bout in London despite that he isn’t as prolific of a puncher as Curtis. The American holds a 7.23-to-4.97 significant strikes landed per minute advantage.

However, I like Hermansson’s experience, and he is tremendous in the takedown department. His most recent finish was a submission in the 1st round over Kelvin Gastelum in mid-July 2020.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-130) is the lean in this outing. Hermansson has gone the distance in each of his past 3 bouts, while Curtis also had his most recent fight decided by the judges. I like YES (+110): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE at plus-money, too, while siding with HERMANSSON BY POINTS (+295) for a chance to triple up.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 208: Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 208 bout odds and lines between Tom Aspinall vs. Curtis Blaydes, with MMA picks, tips and predictions.

In a heavyweight bout in the main event, Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blaydes meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 208 at O2 Arena in London. Below, we analyze the UFC Fight Night 208 Aspinall vs. Blaydes odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The card can be viewed on ESPN+ with the prelims starting at noon ET, followed by the main card at 3 p.m ET.

The Englishman Aspinall takes a walk to the octagon fighting in front of a raucous crowd who will be behind him. He was supposed to fight Jake Collier in London in March 2020, but that card was moved due to the pandemic. So he finally gets a chance to fight in front of the home crowd.

Aspinall has won 5 straight since arriving at the UFC level, all finishes. Four of the victories have come in the 1st round, including a submission victory over Alexander Volkov in the main event last time out in March. He has 3 KO/TKO wins and 2 submission victories across the 5-bout span.

Blaydes made quick work of Chris Daukaus via 2nd Round KO/TKO last time out in late March in the main event. “Razor” has won 2 fights in a row since getting dropped by Derrick Lewis in the main event in late Feb. 2021. Six of his last 9 events have ended via KO/TKO, with Blaydes going 4-2 in those outings.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 208 Aspinall vs. Blaydes odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 2:23 p.m. ET.

Fight result (2-way line): Aspinall -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Blaydes +117 (bet $100 to win $117)
Total rounds: Over 3.5 (+140) | Under 3.5 (-200)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+200) | No (-290)

[tipico]

UFC Fight Night 208 Aspinall vs. Blaydes picks and predictions

Records: Aspinall (12-2-0) | Blaydes (16-3-0)

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

ASPINALL (-150) takes the walk to the octagon looking to stay perfect at the UFC level, but Blaydes will easily be the most impressive opponent he has faced to date.

However, despite the increase in opponent quality, Aspinall is still the play based on his ability to grab finishes and the fact he’ll be fighting in front of a pro-Aspinall U.K. crowd adding more fuel to the fire.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 3.5 ROUNDS (-200) is the play based on Aspinall’s fight history, although it’s getting a little rich for my blood. Aspinall just hasn’t gone past the second round in his UFC career and he’s posted 7.33 significant strikes landed per minute, with a 67.61% significant strikes accuracy percentage.

Blaydes is also a puncher who goes for the big shot early, so this will be a brawl right from the jump. It would be stunning to see this even last late into the 3rd round.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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