May 4th is an important day for the Chicago Bears, and not just because it’s Star Wars day — it’s also the deadline for Ryan Pace to decide whether he will extend quarterback Mitchell Trubisky’s fifth-year option.
It’s been among the most talked-about topics around Halas Hall lately, and Pace has repeatedly refused to give a solid answer on whether it will happen. Given the former second-overall pick’s inconsistent play, it appears unlikely – a view shared by many around the league, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
However, another insider – NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport – appeared on SportsTalk Live on NBC Sports Chicago with a different take. Talking to David Kaplan, he gave what on the surface appeared to be a compelling argument in favor of extending the option.
“To me, I would say it would make a lot of sense to do it,” Rapoport said. “Most teams, when in doubt, do it. And there’s far more examples of teams, you know, declining the option and regretting it than the reverse. You have guys like Sammy Watkins, Bruce Irvin … [Kyle] Fuller’s another good example. Guys who get their option declined and then end up cashing in and getting a much bigger contract because the option was declined. There’s a couple other examples that I can think of. Usually it makes sense to pick it up.”
Bears fans likely remember a similar situation back in 2017, when Pace decided not to extend cornerback Kyle Fuller’s fifth-year option. Fuller then upped his play significantly during the season, and because he was not under contract in 2018, Chicago had to use the transition tag to retain him. The Packers then gave him a huge offer sheet (four years, $56 million), which the Bears had to match. Fuller was an All-Pro in 2018 but regressed a bit in 2019, and it can be argued his contract now looks like an overpay (albeit a minor one).
Chicago, theoretically, wouldn’t want to end up in the same situation with Trubisky if he suddenly improved in 2020. Here’s the key difference, though: Trubisky is a quarterback, drafted in the top 10. His fifth-year option would call for significantly more money than Fuller, or any of the other guys Rapoport mentioned. If Pace extended it, he would be paid $24 million in 2021.
Even if Trubisky turns it around and plays at a Pro Bowl level in 2020, that is a ton of money for a quarterback that will still have a career littered with inconsistency. It’s obviously in the Bears’ best interest if he turns that corner, but if he does, Pace and company may still not feel comfortable retaining him at that price tag. Despite Chicago having outs for some of their big contracts in 2021 (Bobby Massie, Charles Leno, Jimmy Graham), their roster is still expensive.
Yes, Pace could extend the option and then rescind it – 2017 is the final draft class where the fifth-year option is not fully guaranteed. That is, unless he gets injured, which he has in two straight years. If that happens, Chicago is not only without a quarterback, their already-crunched cap will take another huge hit.
Chicago should hope they see improvement out of Trubisky in 2020, who despite subpar play is not necessarily a lost cause. If it happens, they can negotiate a second contract after the season. But extending a fifth-year option is a huge risk, which is why they shouldn’t – and likely won’t.
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