The Mississippi State Bulldogs head into Sanford Stadium with only a 4.8% chance of winning their matchup against the Georgia Bulldogs, according to ESPN. The current spread has Mississippi State at +33.5, meaning they would have to keep the game within 33 points to cover.
Several media outlets believe the Mississippi State Bulldogs stand no chance, but we see some distinct areas that Mississippi State has an advantage over Georgia. With that, here are four reasons why Mississippi State can cover against UGA.
Playing Down to Competition
This may sound like a stretch at first, with Georgia boasting an elite 44-1 record in their last 45 regular season games, but Georgia has sometimes been more lucky than good. It was evident in the game against Kentucky in Week 3, and there have been several instances of Georgia not covering.
Ever since 2021 (the year they won the national championship), they’ve only covered 35% of their games as home favorites, according to Team Rankings, and while they have a margin of victory of 31.2 in those games, that’s still lower than 33.5 points. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has covered 54.5% of the time as away underdogs. Even their cover record against ranked opponents is solid, covering 46% of the time against ranked opponents since 2021.
Miss. State’s Rushing Offense is Superior
This may sound crazy with how Georgia’s rushing attack dominated Auburn 31-13 in their last matchup, but Mississippi State’s run game, led by Davon Booth, has been superior to Georgia’s this year. They pick up 136.67 yards per game, which ranks them 91st, but Georgia’s running offense only picks up 131.60, ranking them 95th.
So far, that hasn’t added up to a longer time of possession, as Georgia (81st, 29:35) is ahead of Mississippi State (120th, 26:23) in that category. A strong running game has the biggest impact on time of possession, so even if game script requires Mississippi State to pass, then they could still successfully prevent the score from being as lopsided as the huge 33.5 point spread suggests if they execute on their rushing attack better than Georgia’s.
Third Down Offense in favor of Mississippi State
Another way to bring down time of possession is with converting third downs. The more third downs a team converts, even if it’s just by the bare minimum, the more they can hold onto the ball. According to CFBStats, Mississippi State has a 45.83% third down conversion rate, ranked 35th, while Georgia only has a 37.70% conversion rate, 89th.
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If Mississippi State’s running game is going strong, then they won’t need to convert too many third and longs. Even if they kick field goals in the red zone, that would still keep them closer to covering against UGA.
Georgia takes too many penalties
Penalties can either kill a drive on offense or resurrect an opponents drive on defense, and this is a weak spot Mississippi State can pounce upon. Mississippi State racks up about 6.8 penalties a game and 59.8 penalty yards a game. Neither of those are above the 80th ranking on the list, but they’re superior compared to Georgia.
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Georgia racks up 7.6 penalties a game and 75 yards of penalties a game. Ironically enough, their most disciplined night came against Auburn, when they only racked up 50 yards on six penalties. The yellow flags have been a big concern for Georgia the whole year, and that could be advantageous for Mississippi State in either forcing Georgia to punt early or allowing Mississippi State to keep the ball longer.