FiveThirtyEight gives Vikings 87 percent chance to make playoffs

The Vikings are coming off an impressive 28-24 road win over the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.

The Vikings had themselves a statement win on Sunday night against the Cowboys in Dallas, winning 28-24.

That win moved the Vikings to 7-3 and in pretty good position for the postseason.

Per FiveThirtyEight, the Vikings have an 87 percent chance to make the postseason. Minnesota has a 34 percent chance to win the NFC North, a 25 percent chance to get a first-round bye and a (wait for it . . . ) seven percent chance to win the Super Bowl.

Up next for the Vikings are the 3-6 Denver Broncos in Week 11 at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Vikings should win that game and move to 8-3 going into their Week 12 bye week.

This is how the rest of Minnesota’s schedule shakes out:

  • Week 13 at Seattle
  • Week 14 vs. Detroit
  • Week 15 at Chargers
  • Week 16 vs. Packers
  • Week 17 vs. Bears

There is plenty to like about how the Vikings are playing right now, but there’s still a lot of football to be played. We’ll see if they can keep it going.

Looking ahead to Vikings vs. Broncos in Week 11

The Vikings should be able to keep their momentum rolling in Week 11 against an underperforming Broncos team.

Denver Broncos (3-6) at Minnesota Vikings (7-3)

Sunday, November 17, 1 PM ET, U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

Broncos’ keys to victory: Vic Fangio’s defense has done its part, ranking in the top 10 in both yards and points allowed. If Denver can get anything that resembles an offense clicking, that could be enough to steal a game from the up-and-down Vikings. That’s pretty unlikely, though. Denver has scored more than 20 points just twice this season. The good news, however, is that the Broncos were able to do it in their last game, with QB Brandon Allen at the helm. It actually probably works against the Vikings that QB Joe Flacco (neck) won’t play in this game.  

Vikings’ to victory: If the Vikings just play their game, they should be just fine. That means controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. RB Dalvin Cook is one of the best running backs in the NFL, but a big question mark continues to be overall team health. The Vikings could really use WR Adam Thielen, who missed two of the past three games with a hamstring injury. The offense gets stagnant without him, as there just aren’t many receiving weapons for QB Kirk Cousins outside of WR Stefon Diggs.

Matchup to watch: Vikings DE Danielle Hunter vs. Broncos QB Brandon Allen. I would expect Vikings coach Mike Zimmer to throw a lot at Allen. There will be plenty of blitzes to keep Allen on his toes — or on his back. What makes Zimmer’s blitzes so effective is that he has two Pro Bowl-caliber defensive ends in Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen. There’s a good chance Hunter will have his second-straight season with 10 or more sacks before this game is over. Last season, he finished with a career-high 14.5.

Who wins? It will be difficult for the Broncos to slow down the Vikings’ offense, and it seems highly unlikely the Broncos will be able to put up points against Zimmer’s stingy defense. The Vikings should be plenty hungry considering they’re fighting for playoff positioning. Vikings 31, Broncos 13

11 Takeaways: Cowboys run narrative into ground, pass on path to victory

The Cowboys yet again failed to get the job done against another top-team, falling 28-24 to the Minnesota Vikings.

The Cowboys can’t seem to do themselves any favors, once again starting slow and digging themselves into a hole which ultimately did them in. They were down two touchdowns before the first quarter ended, but managed to briefly take the lead 21-20 halfway through the third quarter.

Unfortunately, they yet again found themselves on the wrong end of a shootout against one of the better teams in the league. Dallas fell, 28-24, to the Minnesota Vikings, dropping their record to 5-4 on the season. It was a game they rarely looked like things would go their way.

It was over when . . .

. . . Eric Kendricks broke up Dak Prescott’s attempt on 4th and 5 from the Minnesota 14. The Cowboys looked to be in the catbird seat, having drove from their own six to the Minnesota 11, but two Ezekiel Elliott runs pushed them back, and against the wall. Unfortunately, Prescott couldn’t bail them out, after playing so well for the entire game.

Game balls

WR Amari Cooper

It’s impossible to overstate how much Cooper transformed this offense. He had another monster night, catching 11 passes for 147 yards and one touchdown. He was able to showcase everything against the Vikings secondary, but his dramatic sideline toe-taps were the plays that really stood out.

QB Dak Prescott

The best season of Prescott’s career took another step, as he put up a valiant effort in yet another comeback that fell just short. He took it upon himself to throw Dallas back into the game, fearlessly throwing into tight windows and converting third down after third down.

In the end, he threw for 397 yards on 28 of 46 pass attempts, three touchdowns, and one interception (on the last play of the game, a heave into the end zone). The results haven’t been there yet, but these moments and games will soon pay off in the last half of the season.

WR Randall Cobb

It’s been a tough go for the former Packer, but Cobb was able to put together a really nice game, joining Cooper in eclipsing 100 receiving yards (106 on six catches), a feat he accomplished for the first time this season. His beautiful 22-yard touchdown grab at the end of the second quarter made up for the many near-misses that have marred the first half of his season.

Key stat: 2.35

Ezekiel Elliott entered the game averaging 4.7 yards-per-carry this season, yet registered only 2.35 YPC against Minnesota. That didn’t stop the Cowboys from running him 20 times however. The run game was atrocious and entirely unhelpful, seemingly costing the team big, especially considering how well they were able to throw the ball. As a team, they recorded only 50 rushing yards, the second-lowest total of the season (45 in Week 4 vs New Orleans).

Quick takes:

  • As poorly as the Cowboys ran the ball, it was the opposite story for Minnesota. Vikings RB Dalvin Cook rumbled all over the Dallas defense, reminiscent of C.J. Anderson’s performance against them in the playoffs last year. In total, the Vikings ran for 156 total yards, Cook responsible for 97 of them.If only Dallas had a highly-drafted defensive tackle to plug the middle of the defensive line.
  • The Cowboys possess one of the more unique weapons in the NFL in the leg of K Brett Maher. Unfortunately tonight, it seemed to cost them points, as Jason Garrett decided to try a 57-yard field goal that missed badly. It set up Minnesota with a short field, who had no problems marching 53-yards on their first drive of the game to go up 7-0. Situational football has been a problem for the Cowboys this season, and this was yet another example of this team holding itself back..
  • Minnesota’s Kyle Rudolph only had 14 receiving yards, but he was a huge difference maker, scoring two touchdowns and picking up a two-point conversion. His success against the Cowboys secondary was unfortunately unsurprising and predictable, as they’ve seemed to have a lot of trouble containing TEs this season.

  • The Dallas offense converted more than half of their third down opportunities (9 of 15, 60%), which normally leads to success. Unfortunately, the Vikings essentially matched them, converting 8 of 14 third downs (57%).
  • Perhaps the most frustrating and inexplicable moment of the game occurred when WR Tavon Austin signaled for a fair catch despite having tons of real estate in front of him at the end of the game. Minnesota was giving the ball back to the Cowboys, punting from their own 10-yard line with 24 seconds left. If there was ever a time for for Austin to have his signature moment with Dallas, this seemed like it. Apparently, the coaches didn’t let him try.

  • The Cowboys are now tied for first place in the NFC East at 5-4. They’ll try to again separate themselves from the Philadelphia against another NFC North opponent next week in the Detroit Lions, who are 3-5-1.