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The New York Mets (55-50) welcome the Minnesota Twins (58-46) to Citi Field Monday for the opener of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2024; Twins took 2 of 3 last year
The Twins won 5-0 as -140 road favorites at the Detroit Tigers Sunday. Minnesota, which sits 2nd in the AL Central, took 2 of 3 from Detroit and has won 3 of its last 4. Despite the recent success, The Twins are 4-5 over their last 9 and 49-55 against the spread (ATS) on the season. They are 29-25 straight up on the road.
The Mets, who are 28-27 at home on the season, lost 9-2 Sunday as -107 home favorites to the Atlanta Braves. It was the Mets’ 2nd consecutive loss after taking the first 2 of the series Thursday and Friday. 1B Pete Alonso hit his 21st homer of the season in Sunday’s loss. Prior to Saturday’s defeat, the Mets had won 5 in a row. They are 52-53 ATS.
Twins at Mets projected starters
RHP Simeon Woods Richardson vs. LHP Jose Quintana
Woods Richardson (3-1, 3.27 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 88 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 3-0 home loss to Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday
- 2024 away splits: 2-1, 3.45 ERA (44 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.22 WHIP, 5 HR, 7.1 K/9 in 9 starts
- Originally drafted by Mets in 2nd round of 2018; has yet to face New York
Quintana (5-6, 4.02 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 through 107 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 5 BB, 6 K in 3-2 victory at New York Yankees Tuesday
- 2024 home splits: 2-4, 3.58 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.16 WHIP, 14 HR, 7.6 K/9 in 10 starts
- Career vs. Twins: 7-8, 4.05 ERA (126 2/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 in 21 starts; last faced Minnesota in 2017
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Twins at Mets odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 8:51 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -104 (bet $104 to win $100) | Mets -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+150) | Mets +1.5 (-182)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Twins at Mets picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 5, Mets 4
Moneyline
BET TWINS (-104).
The Mets haven’t performed well at home in games that Quintana has started, having won 4 of his last 7 home starts. Quintana allowed 3 or more runs in 4 of those 7 home outings. The Mets have been streaky over the past few weeks and have scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of their last 9 games.
The Twins, who have scored 5 or more in 3 of their last 4, have won 4 of Woods Richardson’s last 5 starts. They have won 4 of its last 6 overall and have been consistent offensively.
Considering those trends, BACK TWINS (-104).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Twins -1.5 (+150) are too risky as RL favorites, especially on the road. Given how streaky the Mets have performed, they aren’t a lock to cover, and at +1.5 (-182), New York is just too expensive to consider.
Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-110).
The Twins have gone Over in 3 of their last 4 games and have gone Over in 7 of their last 9. Minnesota has tallied at least 7 runs in 3 of its last 7 and has scored at least 5 in 5 of those 7. It is 53-49-2 O/U on the season.
The Mets have cashed Over tickets in 4 of their last 7 games and are an impressive 56-46-3 O/U on the season. New York has allowed at least 4 runs in 5 of its last 8. With these trends in mind, BACK OVER 8.5 (-110).
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