The Minnesota Twins (54-71) continue their three-game set with the Boston Red Sox (72-55) Wednesday. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Twins vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Boston held off a 5-run late-inning rally by Minnesota to win the first game of the series 11-9. The Red Sox have somewhat righted the ship by winning three of their last four since falling behind the New York Yankees in the AL Wild Card standings.
Season series: Red Sox lead 4-1.
RHP Bailey Ober is Minnesota’s projected starter. Ober is 1-2 with a 4.38 ERA (63 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 14 starts.
- Last outing: Loss, 3-1, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 3 K Aug. 17 against the Cleveland Indians.
- August splits: 0-1 with a 2.76 ERA (16 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 18 H, 2 BB and 14 K in three starts.
RHP Nick Pivetta makes his 25th start for the Red Sox. Pivetta is 9-6 with a 4.43 ERA (126 IP, 62 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Loss, 5-2, with 1 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 4 H, 3 BB and 1 K at the New York Yankees Aug. 18.
- Home splits: 4-2 with a 5.37 ERA (60 1/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.44 WHIP and 2.4 K/BB in 12 starts.
Twins at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:37 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Twins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Red Sox -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Twins +1.5 (-130) | Red Sox -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Prediction
Twins 7, Red Sox 6
Money line (ML)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Twins (+140) because there’s been heavy “reverse line movement” (RLM) in Minnesota’s direction. However, Boston has an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting and bullpen pitching and hitting).
FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the TWINS +1.5 (-130) for a half unit since the Red Sox are just 24-28 ATS as a home favorite and we are seeing the same RLM with Minnesota’s run line.
The Twins opened around -113 on the run line but that number has been moved down by oddsmakers despite 90% of the action coming on the Red Sox according to Pregame.com. It’s always a red flag when the sportsbook makes the more popular side cheaper.
Furthermore, the starting and bullpen pitching between the two ball clubs stack up pretty equally after the All-Star Game and both lineups are in the top-10 of wRC+ over the past two weeks.
Boston does have a slight edge in each of these departments but that’s baked into a line that is heading in the opposite direction as the betting public.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 10.5 (-110) for a half unit because Minnesota has the highest rate of Overs on the road and the third-highest rate of Overs as a road underdog.
Also, the Red Sox are 9-7 O/U at home when facing a righty as a -160 money line favorite or greater and the Twins are 6-3-1 O/U on the road against righties as a +140 money line underdog or greater.
For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]