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The Minnesota Twins (43-36) and Arizona Diamondbacks (39-40) play the 2nd game of a 3-game set at Chase Field Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks lead 1-0
The Twins lost 5-4 as -131 favorites in the series opener Tuesday as the Over (7.5) hit. Minnesota has lost 4 of its last 6 games, but is still 10-5 over its last 15.
Diamondbacks 2B Ketel Marte had 3 RBIs, including an infield hit which drove in the go-ahead run in the 7th inning. The win snapped a 2-game skid for Arizona, which cashed as a +121 underdog.
Twins at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Simeon Woods Richardson vs. RHP Ryne Nelson
Woods Richardson (2-1, 3.26 ERA) makes his 13th start. The rookie has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 60 2/3 IP.
- Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-6 home loss in 10 innings vs. Tampa Bay Rays Thursday
- 2024 road stats: 1-1, 3.12 ERA (34 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 6.2 K/9 in 7 starts
- Never faced Diamondbacks before
Nelson (5-5, 5.18 ERA) makes his 13th start and 14th appearance. He has a 1.51 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 6.0 K/9 in 64 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 5-2 victory at Washington Nationals Thursday
- 2024 home stats: 3-2, 5.74 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.63 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 6 starts
- Career vs. Twins: 0-1, 18.00 ERA (3 IP, 6 ER), 8 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 1 start, a 12-1 road loss Aug. 5, 2023
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Twins at Diamondbacks odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:55 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+135) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Twins at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 5, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
The TWINS (-120) should bounce back after Tuesday’s loss, especially since Woods Richardson will be taking the mound. The 23-year-old has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 9 of his 12 starts this season. Nelson, on the other hand, has been inconsistent for the Diamondbacks this year and given up 4 or more ER in 4 of his last 8 starts.
BET TWINS (-120).
Run line/Against the spread
Arizona +1.5 (-165) will likely hit, but it’s hard to be profitable long term betting MLB if you’re trying to beat the vig in 30-cent markets.
PASS. Bet the ML and/or total instead.
Over/Under
The Over is 6-2 in the Twins’ last 8 contests, and they’re averaging 5.63 runs per game over that stretch. Nelson struggled against Minnesota last season and has allowed 4 or more ER in 3 of his 6 home starts this year. However, 9 is a key number in MLB totals, so I wouldn’t bet this unless it drops to 8.5 or lower.
LEAN OVER 9 (-115).
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