The Miami Heat (16-17) battle the Minnesota Timberwolves (16-17) Monday. Tip from FTX Arena in Miami is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Timberwolves vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
The Heat lost to the Indiana Pacers 111-108 Friday, failing to cover as 6.5-point home favorites. Miami has been the worst against-the-spread (ATS) team in the NBA, posting just a 10-21-2 record. It is 9-8 straight up at home and still has a 16-17 record. The Heat are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10.
The Timberwolves lost to the Boston Celtics 121-109 as 9.5-point road underdogs Friday. They looked in prime position to cover, but lost the 4th quarter 33-23. Minnesota is 5-5 ATS in its last 10 games yet has failed to cover 2 in a row. The Wolves have also disappointed bettors, posting just as 13-20 season-long ATS record.
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Timberwolves at Heat odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:39 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Timberwolves +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Heat -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Timberwolves +2.5 (+102) | Heat -2.5 (-112)
- Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: +100 | U: -110)
Timberwolves at Heat key injuries
Timberwolves
- C Bam Adebayo (shoulder) questionable
- F Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
Heat
- C Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
Timberwolves at Heat picks and predictions
Prediction
Timberwolves 112, Heat 109
Moneyline
PASS.
I like the Wolves to win, but I would still prefer to play the points rather than the moneyline odds.
Against the spread
BET TIMBERWOLVES +2.5 (+102).
While KAT is out, the Wolves should have both size and scoring with C Rudy Gobert and G Anthony Edwards, who leads the team averaging 23.2 points per game.
The Wolves also hung with the Celtics for 3 quarters and barely failed to cover their game prior. They are 3-2 ATS in their last 5. The Heat have lost 2 straight and have been favorites in their last 10, in which they have just a 2-7-1 ATS record.
The Heat allow 109.2 points per game which ranks 4th in the NBA, but they sit 19th (47.3%) and 18th (36%) in field goal percentage and 3-point field-goal percentage, so they aren’t quite a dominant defense still.
Ultimately, given the Heat’s struggles at home and against the spread, back the TIMBERWOLVES +2.5 (+102).
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 222.5 (-110).
Both teams have been more consistent in hitting the Under than the Over this season. The Wolves, who played at the highest pace in the league last season, sit 5th in pace now.
The addition of Gobert has aided their defense. They are 14-19 O/U this season. The Heat, who have had stints without Butler, are just 16-17 O/U. They are 1-5 O/U in their last 6.
Ultimately, considering the trends, back the UNDER 222.5 (-110).
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