The St. Louis Cardinals (61-50) host the Milwaukee Brewers (60-50) Friday for the start of their 3-game series at Busch Stadium with the 1st pitch scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Brewers vs. Cardinals odds with MLB picks and predictions.
The Cardinals have jumped ahead of the Brewers atop the NL Central by a half-game on the strength of their 8-2 straight up (SU) run over the last 10 games.
Milwaukee, on the other hand, is 4-6 SU in the last 10, but, the Brew Crew won both of an interleague home back-to-back with the Tampa Bay Rays Tuesday-Wednesday.
Season series: Tied 6-6, but St. Louis has a plus-4 run differential in those meetings.
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Brewers at Cardinals projected starters
LHP Eric Lauer vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery
Lauer is 8-3 with a 3.59 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 in 112 2/3 IP across 20 starts.
- Last start: Win, 5-1, Friday at home vs. the Cincinnati Reds with 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 4 K.
- 2022 vs. the Cardinals: 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA (11 IP, 7 ER), 10 H, 2 HR, 5 H and 6 K in 2 starts.
Montgomery is 4-3 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 119 2/3 IP over 22 starts.
- Last start: Win, 1-0, at home vs. the New York Yankees Saturday with 5-scoreless IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 1 K.
- St. Louis sent CF Harrison Bader to N.Y. for Montgomery at the trade deadline, and Montgomery’s start vs. the Yankees was his 1st as a Cardinal. He did leave after 5 innings with cramping.
Brewers at Cardinals odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:15 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Brewers +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Cardinals -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Brewers +1.5 (-155) | Cardinals -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Brewers at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 8, Brewers 3
Money line
LEAN CARDINALS (-175) only because I’d prefer to lay it with St. Louis’ RL for a plus-money payout.
But, the Cardinals are more productive vs. left-handed pitching than the Brewers (+140), and St. Louis’ lineup has been raking recently.
The Cardinals score more runs per 9 vs. lefties than the Brewers (5.55-3.88) and outrank Milwaukee in wRC+ (124-88), wOBA (.342-.298), ISO (.175-.135) and BB/K rate (0.49-0.39), according to FanGraphs.
Furthermore, St. Louis is 3rd in WAR (4.2), 2nd in both wRC+ (142) and wOBA (.369) and 1st in ISO (.232) over the last 2 weeks, per FanGraphs.
Finally, St. Louis’s ML has been “steamed” from a -145 opener up to the current price, according to Pregame.com.
The CARDINALS (-175) are the right side, but I’m confident enough in St. Louis to take the RL.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET CARDINALS -1.5 (+125) based on the analysis above and since St. Louis is 31-24 RL at home and 26-18 RL vs. NL Central foes. Whereas the Brewers are 26-33 RL on the road and 22-31 RL in division games.
The CARDINALS -1.5 (+125) is my favorite look in this game.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 7.5 (-110) because 7 of the 12 Brewers-Cardinals meetings have gone Over Friday’s total, and St. Louis’ lineup rakes left-handed pitching.
However, it’s only a “lean” because a vast majority of the market is on the Over per Pregame.com. But, the total opened at 8 and is heading south despite all the pro-Over money.
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