The Milwaukee Brewers (87-55) continue their three-game series with the Cleveland Indians (69-70) at Progressive Field with the first pitch scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Indians odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee hammered Cleveland 10-3 in the series opener as Brewers trade deadline acquisition IF Eduardo Escobar went yard twice starting RHP Adrian Houser had 6 IP, 0 ER (2 runs scored), 1 H, 5 BB and 5 K.
Season series: Brewers lead 1-0.
RHP Corbin Burnes (9-4, 2.38 ERA) is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Burnes has a 0.96 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 through 144 IP across 24 starts.
- Last outing: No-decision in Milwaukee’s 6-5 home win vs. the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday with a stat line of 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 7 K.
- Burnes is 5-1 all-time in interleague games with a 1.42 ERA (56 IP, 9 ER), 0.71 WHIP and 5.7 K/BB through eight starts and four bullpen outings.
RHP Zach Plesac (10-4, 4.53 ERA) takes the hill for the Indians. Plesac has a 1.17 WHIP, 6.4 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 over 119 1/3 IP across 21 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 11-5, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 3 BB and 5 K Sunday at the Boston Red Sox.
- Home splits: 3-1 with a 4.29 ERA (56 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.13 WHIP and 3.9 K/BB in 10 starts.
Brewers at Indians odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:24 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Brewers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Indians +160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (-112) | Indians +1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Prediction
Brewers 5, Indians 2
Money line (ML)
“LEAN” to the BREWERS (-200) only because I’d rather include them in a parlay with another favorite for an even- or plus-money payout than bet Milwaukee outright. Also, the Brew Crew on the run line offers better value.
However, Burnes has the third-best odds on Tipico Sportsbook to win the NL Cy Young and has been lights out on the road. He leads the majors in FIP (1.58), K/BB (7.0) and home run per nine-inning rate (0.3), and is 6-0 with a 1.83 ERA (68 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.85 WHIP and 10.2 K/BB across 11 road starts.
Furthermore, the Indians have the second-worst winning percentage as home underdogs at 8-21 overall, which is a pretty big sample size. I’d RISK only 1 unit on Milwaukee’s money line rather than bet 1 unit. What I mean by that is if your standard bet is $100 then put that on BREWERS (-200) to hopefully earn a $50 profit.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
BET BREWERS -1.5 (-112) for 1 unit since they have an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting).
Cleveland is 14-15 ATS as a home underdog and Milwaukee is 26-19 ATS as a road favorite, which is the second-best cover rate in that spot across the league.
There’s been a “sharp line move” towards Milwaukee with more than 95% of the cash wagered in the ATS market being on the Brewers according to Pregame.com. Sportsbooks have responded by increasing Milwaukee’s run line price from a -103 consensus to the current number.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 8.5 (+105) because Plesac has pitched well in his last two outings and Burnes can shut down this below-average Cleveland lineup.
That said, this is a “pros vs. joes” game with the presumed sharp money favoring the Over. No way I’d bet the Over in this spot but I also don’t want to fade the sharp side of the market.
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