Tag: Milwaukee Brewers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (69-65) wrap a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (83-54) Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee tied the set with a 4-0 win Saturday after St. Louis clobbered the Brewers 15-4 in the series opener Friday.

Season series: Brewers lead 6-5.

LHP Jon Lester is on the rubber for the Cardinals. Lester is 5-6 with a 5.05 ERA (107 IP, 60 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 in 22 starts for St. Louis and the Washington Nationals.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 5 K Monday at the Cincinnati Reds.
  • Lester has two no-decisions this season against Milwaukee with a 5.40 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 3 BB and 4 K in two starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster (148 PA): 2.17 FIP with a .336 batting average (BA), .369 wOBA, .417 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.0 K% and 87.3 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Corbin Burnes makes his 24th start for the Brewers. Burnes is 9-4 with a 2.27 ERA (139 IP, 35 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K Monday at the San Francisco Giants.
  • Burnes is 1-1 against St. Louis this season with a 0.53 ERA (17 IP, 1 ER), 8 H, 3 BB and 21 K in three starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (110 PA): 3.24 FIP with a .235 BA, .307 wOBA, .456 xSLG, 37.3 K% and 87.6 mph EV.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:17 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Brewers -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-105) | Brewers -1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Cardinals 1

Money line (ML)

Milwaukee has a significant edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting). However, that’s adequately accounted for in the Brewers (-280) line, which is a little too pricy for me.

Also, Lester’s pitching peripherals against active Milwaukee batters are actually very impressive and the Cardinals-Brewers season series has been back-and-forth all year.

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (-115) because they are 41-24 ATS against NL Central opponents and have won seven straight home games Burnes has started, four of them by at least 2 runs.

Furthermore, there’s “sharp” line movement towards Milwaukee. Roughly 95% of the cash wagered is on Milwaukee’s run line according to Pregame.com, which has caused oddsmakers to move the Brewers up from a -109 consensus run line favorite to the current price.

To keep this game close the Cardinals would either need a Lester gem or Burnes dud, neither of which is likely to occur. Milwaukee’s lineup could certainly gain a multi-run lead against a St. Louis bullpen that ranks second-to-last in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-108) because we’d be getting near an even-money payout to essentially fade a St. Louis lineup that hits righties poorly and a Milwaukee lineup that’s awful against left-handed pitching.

The reason why I’m avoiding this total though is that these teams have a combined 22-19 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (68-64) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (82-53) Friday to begin a three-game series at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Brewers lead 5-4.

RHP Adam Wainwright takes the mound for the Cardinals Wainwright is 13-7 with a 2.97 ERA (169 2/3 IP, 56 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 26 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 13-0, with 7 IP, 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K at the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday.
  • Wainwright is 0-1 against Milwaukee this season with a 2.45 ERA (11 IP, 3 ER), 14 H, 4 BB and 10 K in two starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster (128 PA): 3.27 FIP with a .243 batting average (BA), .300 wOBA, .417 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 17.2 K% and 88.2 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Freddy Peralta is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Peralta is 9-3 with a 2.45 ERA (121 1/3 IP, 33 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 in 22 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB and 2 K in Milwaukee’s 6-4 victory at the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Peralta has two no-decisions against St. Louis this season with a 3.00 ERA (9 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 1 BB and 10 K in two starts.
  • vs. Cardinals on the current roster (97 PA): 4.99 FIP with a .244 BA, .347 wOBA, .497 xSLG, 24.7 K% and 87.7 mph EV.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Cardinals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Brewers -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-150) | Brewers -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Brewers 5, Cardinals 1

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS (-180) only because it’s on the fringe of my buy-price but Milwaukee has an edge in the three most important facets of the game (starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting).

While Wainwright turned 40 earlier this week and is having a throwback season, he has been aided by tremendous defensive play. Wainwright has a mediocre K%, EV, hard-hit rate and xSLG.

However, Peralta has some of the best stuff in the league. Peralta grades in the 89th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, EV, xSLG, K%, expected wOBA and whiff rate.  He was dominant in his first start against St. Louis season and exited his second start with an injury that placed him on the IL. Presumably, Peralta has recovered and should be dialed in for fall baseball.

In addition, Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks in the top 10 in several advanced pitching categories whereas St. Louis’s ranks near the bottom. For instance, the Cardinals relievers have the second-worst xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.

Since Milwaukee’s money line is so expensive, I’d entertain throwing the Brewers (-180) into a parlay with another similarly priced favorite to get a plus-money payout.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (+122) for a half unit because Milwaukee has the second-best cover rate against divisional foes at 40-23 ATS, St. Louis is 25-31 ATS vs. NL Central opponents and all nine Cardinals-Brewers meetings this year have been decided by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-122) because both the “pros” and “joes” are headed in that direction and oddsmakers have brought this total down from the flat-8 opener according to Pregame.com.

On the other hand, we are getting the worst of the number at this point and if Wainwright doesn’t pitch into the 7th inning, Milwaukee’s lineup could rake St. Louis’s weak bullpen.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (80-52) and San Francisco Giants (84-47) continue their four-game series at Oracle Park Tuesday with the first pitch scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee won Monday’s series opener 3-1 as Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes had 6 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

RHP Brandon Woodruff is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Woodruff is 8-7 with a 2.38 ERA (151 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 0.93 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 25 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 4-1, with 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 10 K Wednesday against the Cincinnati Reds.
  • Woodruff got a no-decision Aug. 7 against San Francisco with 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 8 K in Milwaukee’s 9-6 home loss.

San Francisco hadn’t announced a starter by the time of publishing.

Brewers at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:45 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Giants +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+130) | Giants +1.5 (-160)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Giants 1

Money line (ML)

BET the BREWERS (-135) for 1 unit because Milwaukee has a significant edge in starting and relief pitching even though San Francisco hasn’t officially named its starter.

Either way, we know the Giants definitely will not start RHP Kevin Gausman and Woodruff has better basic and advanced pitching numbers than any starter in San Francisco’s rotation. The Brew Crew’s bullpen has a better xFIP, SIERA and K-BB% than the Giants’ relievers.

Lastly, Milwaukee’s lineup has been hotter than San Francisco’s over the last two weeks. Giants hitters are in the bottom-seven in wRC+, wOBA and WAR across the last 14 days.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Milwaukee is 4-7 ATS as a road favorite with Woodruff on the mound.

Even though the Brewers have the fourth-best cover rate as a road favorite at 24-19 ATS, I’d still need Milwaukee’s run line price to be north of +150 before taking a stab.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) for a tiny wager because the Brewers are 8-18-1 O/U as a road favorite, 4-6-1 O/U as a road favorite with Woodruff on the rubber and 9-15-1 O/U in Woodruff’s 25 starts. The Under is also 5-0-1 in Milwaukee’s previous six games.

That said, the Giants have played more to the Over as a home underdog and the weather forecast predicts double-digit mph winds blowing out to left-centerfield, which helps both offenses.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (84-46) host the Milwaukee Brewers (79-52) Monday to kick off a four-game series at Oracle Park. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Giants odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee snapped a three-game skid with a 6-2 victory Sunday at the Minnesota Twins in the finale of a three-game series. The Brewers have won 13 of their last 20 games and are 8.5 games atop the NL Central standings.

San Francisco lost the rubber match of their three-game series at the Atlanta Braves Sunday 9-0, but the Giants have won 15 of their last 20 games and are 2.5 games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers for first in the NL West.

Season series: Giants lead 2-1.

RHP Corbin Burnes makes his 23rd start for the Brewers. Burnes is 8-4 with a 2.30 ERA (133 IP, 34 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB and 5 K in 7-4 win over the Cincinnati Reds Tuesday.
  • Burnes got a no-decision Aug. 6 against San Francisco with a stat line of 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 5 K in a 2-1 home victory.
  • vs. Giants on the current roster: 2.51 FIP with a .220 batting average (BA), .234 wOBA, .312 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 26.9 K% and 82.8 mph exit velocity (EV) in 52 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Johnny Cueto takes the hill for the Giants. Cueto is 7-6 with a 3.73 ERA (108 2/3 IP, 45 ER), 1.30 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 20 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 2 K in 3-2 win at the New York Mets Wednesday.
  • 2021 home splits: 6-3 with a 3.09 ERA (58 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.06 WHIP and 5.8 K/BB in 10 starts.
  • vs. Brewers on the current roster: 4.79 FIP with a .282 BA, .338 wOBA, .479 xSLG, 16.5 K% and 88.3 mph EV in 85 PA.

Brewers at Giants odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:46 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Giants +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+120) | Giants +1.5 (-145)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Giants 2

Money line (ML)

BET the BREWERS (-140) for 1 unit because they have a big edge in pitching, there’s “reverse line movement” in Milwaukee’s direction and the Brew Crew is the best road team in the majors.

Burnes has better basic numbers and advanced pitching numbers against San Francisco than Cueto vs. Milwaukee. Also, Burnes grades in the 94th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, EV, K%, xSLG, expected wOBA, and chase rate.

Milwaukee’s bullpen ranks higher than San Francisco’s in xFIP, SIERA, K-BB% and swinging-strike rate.

On top of that, the Brewers batters rank better than the Giants in wRC+, wOBA, BB/K and hard-hit rate over the past two weeks.

Lastly, more than 60% of the action is on San Francisco’s money line, but the Brewers’ money line has been moved up from -120 on the opener to the current price (according to Pregame.com). It’s a red flag in sports betting when the House makes the more popular side cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Brewers -1.5 (+120) needs to be north of +145 for me to take a stab at Milwaukee’s run line because the Giants are 8-4 ATS as home underdogs and have the best home winning percentage in MLB.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-110) for a half unit because we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market as the presumed “sharp” money favors the Under whereas the public is backing the Over, according to Pregame.com.

Roughly 85% of the cash wagered is on the Under, but a slight majority of the bets placed are with the Over. Typically, it’s wiser to follow the money in sports betting especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (57-72) look to pull off the three-game sweep when they host the Milwaukee Brewers (78-52) Sunday for the series finale at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Minnesota won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 8-4 and has cooled off what was a hot Milwaukee team that won eight of its previous 11 games before meeting up with the Twins.

Season series: Twins lead 4-1.

LHP Aaron Ashby is Milwaukee’s projected starter. Ashby has yet to earn a decision and has a 4.15 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 4 BB and 9 K across three starts and one bullpen outing in his rookie season.

RHP Griffin Jax is on the hill for the Twins. Jax is 3-2 with a 6.29 ERA (48 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 over seven starts and four relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 11-9, with 4 2/3 IP, 9 ER, 7 H, 4 BB and 4 K Tuesday at the Boston Red Sox.
  • Home splits: 2-0 with a 5.23 ERA (20 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.26 WHIP and 3.6 K/BB in two starts and three bullpen outings.

Brewers at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Twins +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+102) | Twins +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Prediction

Brewers 5, Twins 3

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BREWERS (-155) for a half unit because Milwaukee has the most victories over righty starters in the majors, the highest winning percentage on the road and a significant edge in the pitching department.

Ashby is Milwaukee’s No. 1 rated prospect according to FanGraphs and has pitched eight scoreless innings with 1 walk and 9 strikeouts since giving up 4 earned runs in his MLB debut against the Chicago Cubs.

On the other hand, Jax grades in the 18th percentile or worse in exit velocity, hard-hit rate, K%, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage and barrel rate. Also, Minnesota’s bullpen has the second-highest home run per nine-inning rate and the seventh-worst FIP.

The Brewers are 14-4 outright this season when facing a right-handed starter on the road as money line favorites of -140 or greater with a plus-22.5 return on investment and an average score of 7.2-3.0. The Twins are just 2-4 outright as home underdogs vs. a lefty starter with a minus-23.8% ROI and an average score of 3.0-6.5.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Brewers -1.5 (+102) isn’t a fat enough payout considering they have a rookie getting the start, Minnesota is 14-9 ATS as a home underdog and Milwaukee is 3-11 ATS in interleague games.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-120) since the oddsmaker has liability on the Under already hence the higher vig and the presumed “sharp” money is hammering the Under despite a bunch of Over-friendly situational trends.

Nearly 90% of the cash wagered on the Brewers-Twins total has been on the Under which has caused oddsmakers to move this total down from the 10-run opener, according to Pregame.com.

Aside from both lineups struggling against their respective opponents’ pitching handedness, I cannot make sense of the total for this game and would only put a TINY WAGER on the UNDER 9.5 (-120).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (78-50) kick off a three-game interleague series with the Minnesota Twins (55-72) Friday at Target Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee had a four-game win streak snapped Thursday when it lost the series finale to the Cincinnati Reds but has won seven of its last 10 games and 14 of the last 20.

Minnesota lost five of its previous six games, all on the road, against the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees.

Season series: Twins lead 2-1.

LHP Eric Lauer gets the start for the Brewers. He is 4-4 with a 3.59 ERA (77 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 13 starts and four relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 3 K in Milwaukee’s 9-6 victory over the Washington Nationals Saturday.
  • 2021 road stats: 1-1 with a 2.97 ERA (30 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.19 WHIP and 3.1 K/BB across four starts and three relief outings.

LHP Andrew Albers (0-0, 2.25 ERA) makes his first start of the year for the Twins. He picked up a no-decision in a relief appearance over 4 IP with 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 4 K in Minnesota’s 7-5 loss at the Yankees Aug. 19.

Brewers at Twins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:55 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Twins +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (+111) | Twins +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Brewers 7, Twins 5

Money line (ML)

BET the BREWERS (-140) for 1 unit since they have a definitive edge in both relief pitching and hitting. Also, Albers is making his first start since 2017 so Milwaukee probably has an edge in the starting pitching duel even though Lauer is a back-of-the-rotation guy for Milwaukee.

Milwaukee’s lineup is second in WAR and sixth in wRC+ since the All-Star break while the Twins rank 23rd in WAR and 17th in wRC+ over that same span.

Furthermore, Minnesota’s bullpen has the second-highest HR/9 and the third-worst WAR whereas the Brew Crew’s relievers are 39-16 with the seventh-best xFIP in MLB.

Lastly, Lauer is 3-0 on the road this season with the Brewers listed as money line favorites of -130 or greater.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Brewers are just 1-2 ATS in Lauer’s three victories as a road favorite of -130 and greater. On top of that, Milwaukee is just 3-9 ATS in interleague contests and Minnesota is 7-6 ATS in those spots.

The payout isn’t high enough on the Brewers to win by 2 or more runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-107) for a half unit as a “contrarian play” against a market that’s backing the Under at a 70% clip, according to Pregame.com.

I’m cool with fading the market in this spot because the Brewers are 21-15-3 O/U as road favorites and the Twins have played to the Over at the highest rate in MLB at 75-46-6 O/U.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Milwaukee Brewers (66-46) travel to the Windy City to start a four-game series with the Chicago Cubs (52-61) at Wrigley Field Monday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Brewers vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee lost the rubber match of a three-game set against the San Francisco Giants Sunday but is 6-4 over its last 10 games and 13-7 in the previous 20.

Chicago was swept in an interleague set against the crosstown rival Chicago White Sox this past weekend and is just 6-14 over its last 20 games.

Season series: Brewers lead 9-3.

RHP Freddy Peralta is Milwaukee’s projected starter. He is 8-3 with a 2.21 ERA (114 IP, 28 ER), 0.90 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 through 20 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 9 K in Milwaukee’s 4-2 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday.
  • Peralta is 2-0 this season against Chicago with a 2.14 ERA (21 IP, 5 ER), 1.00 WHIP and 3.0 K/BB rate over four starts.
    • vs. Cubs on the current roster (46 PA): 2.31 FIP with a .146 batting average (BA), .222 wOBA, .269 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 41.3 K% and 86.9 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Alec Mills is on the mound for the Cubs. He is 5-4 with a 4.41 ERA (69 1/3 IP, 34 ER), 1.44 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 through 10 starts and 12 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Win, 3-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 2 BB and 3 K at the Colorado Rockies Wednesday.
  • Mills is 0-0 against Milwaukee this season with 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 1 K in one start and three relief outings spanning 8 1/3 IP.
    • vs. Brewers on the current roster (45 PA): 6.11 FIP with a .214 BA, .315 wOBA, .431 xSLG, 11.1 K% and 85.7 mph EV.

Brewers at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Brewers -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Cubs +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Brewers -1.5 (-120) | Cubs +1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Cubs 1

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” toward the Brewers (-200) because Milwaukee is the right side but a little too pricey in this spot.

Peralta is low-key putting up a Cy Young caliber season. He grades in the 85th percentile or better in hard-hit rate and EV, 96th percentile in expected wOBA, 97th percentile in xSLG and 94th percentile in K%.

Peralta’s numbers don’t dip much on the road, either. He has a 2.51 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP and a .573 OPS allowed as a visitor.

I wouldn’t hate risking 1 unit on the Brewers (-200), as in if your typical bet is $100 then wager that on Milwaukee’s money line to earn a $50 profit.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

BET the BREWERS -1.5 (-120) for 1 unit because Milwaukee has the third-best cover rate in divisional matchups at 31-19 ATS.

More importantly, the Cubs have flipped their season into “tank mode” and had a fire sale of assets around the trade deadline. I’m in favor of fading Chicago against a Milwaukee team trending in the other direction.

Since the deadline, the Cubs’ lineup is in the bottom-six of WAR, wRC+, wOBA and hard-hit rate. Also, Chicago’s bullpen is 0-3 with the highest home run per nine-inning rate and the second-worst FIP in MLB over that span.

Over/Under (O/U)

TAKE the UNDER 8.5 (+105) because Milwaukee’s lineup ranks right around Chicago’s in most hitting categories this month and averages fewer than 4 runs per game at Wrigley Field this year.

Furthermore, Mills has the fifth-highest contact rate of any pitcher with a minimum of 60 IP but the Brew Crew’s lineup is below-average in hard-contact and barrel rates so I feel good about Mills’ chances of having a quality start.

On top of that, if Peralta gets roughed up or isn’t dialed in then Milwaukee can resort to its awesome bullpen that ranks sixth in SIERA, ninth in xFIP and sixth in K-BB%.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (19-20) wrap up a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (20-20) Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Milwaukee is trying to prevent a three-game sweep after Atlanta won the first two games of the series by a combined score of 11-4.

Season series: Braves 2-0.

RHP Huascar Ynoa is on the rubber for the Braves. Ynoa is 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA (40 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 0.89 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 across 7 starts and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Win, 6-1, in 6 IP with 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K vs. the Philadelphia Phillies May 9.
  • Career vs. the Brewers: 0-0 with a 54.00 ERA (1 IP, 6 ER), 6.00 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 in 1 relief appearance (2019).

RHP Freddy Peralta is the projected starter for the Brewers. Peralta is 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA (39 IP, 12 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 4.2 BB/9 and 14.1 K/9 over 7 starts and 1 relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 7 IP with 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB and 8 K in Milwaukee’s 6-1 loss Tuesday vs. the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Career vs. the Braves: 1-1 with a 6.97 ERA (10 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 2.13 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance.
    • Vs. Braves on the current roster: 40 at-bats with a .275/.408/.425 slash line, 12/8 K/BB, 0 HR and 7 RBIs.

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  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Braves at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:27 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Brewers -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+155) | Brewers +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Brewers 3, Braves 2

Money line (ML)

The bullpens are pretty even and both pitchers are off to an awesome start, but Milwaukee’s starter has nastier stuff than Atlanta’s.

Peralta grades in the 91st or better percentile in expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, whiff%, hard-hit rate and K%.

While Ynoa is in the 8 percentile of hard-hit rate, 38th percentile of expected wOBA and 24th percentile in expected slugging percentage.

Furthermore, the “sharp” side of the market is backing Milwaukee whereas the “average Joe” is taking Atlanta.

According to Pregame.com, more than 80% of the money wagered is on the Brewers, but 60% of the bets placed have been on the Braves.

Typically in sports gambling, it’s more profitable to follow the money if it’s going against what the public is betting.

“LEAN” to the BREWERS (-120) for a half unit, however, because Milwaukee’s lineup is scoring the second-fewest runs per game with the third-lowest batting average and second-lowest OPS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS even though the Brewers are the right side in what should be a low-scoring affair because Milwaukee +1.5 (-190) is too expensive.

Also, Peralta’s edge over Ynoa isn’t big enough to justify taking the Brewers -0.5 (+120) First 5 Innings line. The price for Milwaukee’s First 5 Innings that I would’ve bet would be around +135.

Over/Under (O/U)

GIMME the UNDER 7.5 (-115) for 1 unit because both pitchers have been fabulous so far this season and Milwaukee’s lineup has been awful this season.

There’s not a lot more to the handicap than that. I just think there’s a good chance that this game is low-scoring because of the starters and am less sold on the Brewers’ side.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Atlanta Braves at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (18-20) and Milwaukee Brewers (20-19) play again Saturday at 7:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Braves vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Ian Anderson is the projected starting pitcher for the Braves. He is 2-1 with a 3.46 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, and 3.9 BB/9 in 39 IP over 7 starts.

Anderson is coming off back-to-back games where his line was just so-so (combined 7 runs allowed on 12 hits in 10 IP).

But, those efforts were muddied by high hit rates on balls in play, and on the whole, the 23-year-old continues to give the Braves consistent starts as he did in 2020 when he logged a 1.95 ERA in 6 starts.

LHP Brett Anderson is the projected starter for the Brewers. He is 2-2 with a 3.54 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 4.9 K/9, and 2.2 BB/9 in 20 1/3 IP over 5 starts.

The start marks Anderson’s second off the injured list (hamstring). It comes against an Atlanta club struggling mightily against southpaws (.610 OPS).

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA and WV. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Braves at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:51 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Braves -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+150) |  Brewers +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Braves 5, Brewers 4

Money line (ML)

Atlanta took Friday’s series opener, 6-3, and that victory snapped a three-game losing skid. With the loss, Milwaukee dropped to just 3-9 since May 2.

Saturday’s contest makes for a tough betting proposition because both teams figure to be a little overvalued by their win-loss records.

In the battle of dueling Andersons on the mound, give the edge to the Braves with Ian Anderson thus far pitching better than his surface numbers indicate. The opposite is the case for Brett Anderson.

Milwaukee has the better bullpen, but the Braves relief corps may be underrated enough to have that filter into the line which could add to value on the ATL side of the ledger.

Where this play calls out for caution is in the breakdown of the offenses. Both are struggling (last two weeks: Braves .668 OPS, Brewers .668). And Atlanta’s struggles against left-handers (.610 OPS) and batting on the road (.671) don’t help that side.

Peg a sliver of a lean on the BRAVES (-115) and consider a partial-unit play.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

AVOID the juice-drowned run-line prices.

Over/Under (O/U)

Same issues as the ML analysis. There is some pull to both offenses being undervalued, especially in how their numbers line up with Statcast quality-of-contact metrics. TAKE THE OVER 8 (-105) on a slight lean.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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