The St. Louis Cardinals (69-65) wrap a three-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers (83-54) Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Milwaukee tied the set with a 4-0 win Saturday after St. Louis clobbered the Brewers 15-4 in the series opener Friday.
Season series: Brewers lead 6-5.
LHP Jon Lester is on the rubber for the Cardinals. Lester is 5-6 with a 5.05 ERA (107 IP, 60 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 in 22 starts for St. Louis and the Washington Nationals.
- Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 2 BB and 5 K Monday at the Cincinnati Reds.
- Lester has two no-decisions this season against Milwaukee with a 5.40 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 3 BB and 4 K in two starts.
- vs. Brewers on the current roster (148 PA): 2.17 FIP with a .336 batting average (BA), .369 wOBA, .417 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 25.0 K% and 87.3 mph exit velocity (EV).
RHP Corbin Burnes makes his 24th start for the Brewers. Burnes is 9-4 with a 2.27 ERA (139 IP, 35 ER), 0.94 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 12.2 K/9 this year.
- Last outing: Win, 3-1, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 9 K Monday at the San Francisco Giants.
- Burnes is 1-1 against St. Louis this season with a 0.53 ERA (17 IP, 1 ER), 8 H, 3 BB and 21 K in three starts.
- vs. Cardinals on the current roster (110 PA): 3.24 FIP with a .235 BA, .307 wOBA, .456 xSLG, 37.3 K% and 87.6 mph EV.
Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:17 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Cardinals +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Brewers -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-105) | Brewers -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
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Prediction
Brewers 4, Cardinals 1
Money line (ML)
Milwaukee has a significant edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting pitching, relief pitching and hitting). However, that’s adequately accounted for in the Brewers (-280) line, which is a little too pricy for me.
Also, Lester’s pitching peripherals against active Milwaukee batters are actually very impressive and the Cardinals-Brewers season series has been back-and-forth all year.
PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
“LEAN” to the BREWERS -1.5 (-115) because they are 41-24 ATS against NL Central opponents and have won seven straight home games Burnes has started, four of them by at least 2 runs.
Furthermore, there’s “sharp” line movement towards Milwaukee. Roughly 95% of the cash wagered is on Milwaukee’s run line according to Pregame.com, which has caused oddsmakers to move the Brewers up from a -109 consensus run line favorite to the current price.
To keep this game close the Cardinals would either need a Lester gem or Burnes dud, neither of which is likely to occur. Milwaukee’s lineup could certainly gain a multi-run lead against a St. Louis bullpen that ranks second-to-last in xFIP, SIERA and K-BB%.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS with a slight “lean” to the Under 7.5 (-108) because we’d be getting near an even-money payout to essentially fade a St. Louis lineup that hits righties poorly and a Milwaukee lineup that’s awful against left-handed pitching.
The reason why I’m avoiding this total though is that these teams have a combined 22-19 O/U record when these starters are on the mound.
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