Tag: Mike Gesicki

Another year, another offense for Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki

Another year, another offense for Dolphins TE Mike Gesicki

John Donovan. Joe Moorhead. Dowell Loggains. Chad O’Shea. Chan Gailey. Who are these men? These are the offensive coordinators for Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki since 2014 — five different coordinators in seven seasons of play between the college and professional ranks. That’s no small number. Continuity among coaching staffs is always easier in theory than it is in application, mainly because the football world will be quick to find coaching candidates and offer a promotion at the first sign of success. Or, in the case of Gesicki’s NFL experience, the tolerance for shortcomings isn’t overly abundant.

They don’t call it the NFL the “Not For Long” for nothing, after all. Gesicki has seen it first hand — Loggains was flushed out along with former coach Adam Gase after the 2018 season, whereas O’Shea was dismissed at the end of the 2019 season for what we’ve since learned was rooted in concerns about the complexity of his offense.

Chan Gailey will be Gesicki and the Dolphins’ third offensive coordinator in as many seasons — but a valuable lesson Gesicki has already learned in his football career is that the concepts are more important the play caller.

“It’s just something new again this year; but at the end of the day, it’s just football, so you’ve just got to come out, know your role, know your assignment and go out and execute to the best of your ability,” said Gesicki when asked about how he’s applying lessons from the past to another year with a new coordinator.

“That’s really all that you can do no matter who’s calling the plays or what the plays are called or all of that kind of stuff.”

Indeed. You’ll often hear players discuss that once you master the concepts and route combinations at the NFL level, the rest of the puzzle pieces are easier to fall into place. Some playbooks use phrasing of coded words, others use a digit system. But mesh is mesh, smash is smash and dagger is dagger. And the little nuances may change from system to system. But ultimately, Gesicki said it best.

“It’s just football.”

Sleepers and Value Plays: Tight Ends

2020 Sleeper and Value Plays at Tight End

A sleeper tight end is a player taken as a backup who ends up worthy of being a starter or at least far outplays the draft slot where you selected him. Average Draft Positions (ADP) are taken from MyFantasyLeague.com  using only recent drafts.

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot.

Average Draft order – Value plays

Sleepers and over-valued players

 

Data, opportunity align for a big 2020 from Dolphins’ Mike Gesicki

Data, opportunity align for a big 2020 from Dolphins’ Mike Gesicki

Twelve months ago, Miami Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki was yet another question mark for a team that was filled with them. The Dolphins made Gesicki their second-round choice in the 2018 NFL Draft, only for his play to fall flat as a rookie in Miami’s uninspiring offensive attack. But throughout the course of the 2019 season, the light came on for Gesicki and now the third-year player enters 2020 as Miami’s second-best option in the passing game behind WR DeVante Parker.

Amid some of the personnel changes the Dolphins will be forced to take in stride as they now prep to play 2020 without WRs Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson, Gesicki appears primed to be a big winner in both the opportunities he will see in the passing game and the data overlap between 2019 and how Miami is expected to play ball in 2020.

First, one must look at where Mike Gesicki was able to win most in 2019. According to a slew of resources, the former Penn State tight end checked a ton of boxes working from the slot as a receiver.

Now, take all of these data points and consider that the Dolphins, who are expected to run predominantly 11 personnel and implement a ton of spacing concepts, just lost their top two options to play in the slot between Hurns and Wilson. Gesicki is a very different kind of slot threat, but he’s a slot threat who is potentially the last man standing among established threats in the middle of the field from last year’s team. The departure of Hurns and Wilson for 2020 opens up 76 targets from last season coming from the area of the field that Gesicki thrived the most.

The math is simple. Gesicki wins in the slot and the Dolphins are going to have more opportunities in the slot this season — which means you should be buying high on Gesicki’s momentum from 2019 rolling into 2020. And then some.

Could recent roster changes mean more 12 personnel for the Dolphins?

Could recent roster changes mean more 12 personnel for the Dolphins?

Entering training camp, the Miami Dolphins’ new-look offense was supposed to feature a lot of spacing of the field, offering a unique blend of size and athleticism in their skill groups in an effort to pose a conflict to opposing defenses: do you play them with heavier personnel groups to counter the run or play them with more defensive backs to counter the spacing on the field?

Miami figured to work predominantly from ’11 personnel’, which would have featured three wide receivers, one tight end and one running back on the field at the same time. That would likely have looked something like:

WR (X) — DeVante Parker
WR (Slot) — Albert Wilson
WR (Z) — Preston Williams
TE (Y) — Mike Gesicki
RB — Jordan Howard

This personnel would have allowed the Dolphins to have a shifty slot receiver (Wilson) featured amongst a slew of big, powerful skill players. Miami, in times of needing an extra seal block on the edge, could call upon either Parker or Williams to step down and seal on a linebacker or safety on the second level to further gain a numbers advantage and done so without conceding the threat of Wilson’s quickness on the field.

But Albert Wilson will not play for the Dolphins this season after opting out amid concerns regarding the coronavirus. Neither will the team’s next best slot option, Allen Hurns.

Which means the Dolphins may have to call an audible regarding which personnel they run the most of their reps out of this coming season. And given Mike Gesicki’s prowess in the slot, it may make the most sense for Miami to transition Gesicki into the slot and tack on another tight end to take his place — which makes the addition of Adam Shaheen via trade so much more impactful for Miami. If the Dolphins were to look to implement 12 personnel as their “base” offensive look, it would likely look like this:

WR (X) — DeVante Parker
WR (Z) — Preston Williams
TE (Flex) — Mike Gesicki
TE (Y) — Adam Shaheen
RB — Jordan Howard

Gesicki was already one of the most productive tight ends from the slot last season, so this puts him in an optimal spot for success and it allows Miami to keep their spacing issues while also getting better run blocking from the Y role via Shaheen, who offers more lower body power and comfort with his hand in the dirt than Gesicki. The Dolphins will miss the short area agility in the slot, but this 12-personnel grouping will actually allow Miami to be more productive with their blocks in the run game, which will need to be leaned on even harder if the Dolphins are going to play a well balanced offensive style in 2020.

Best of the AFC East: Tight end position lacks flash

Ranking the tight end units in the AFC East.

Since Rob Gronkowski retired, there has been a gaping void in therms of talent in the AFC East division. It lacks a big-time playmaking tight end. Sure, there are a couple of young players with great potential in Miami’s Mike Gesicki, New York’s Chris Herndon, and Buffalo’s Dawson Knox, but there’s no guarantee that they will breakout into Gronk-spike territory.

Nevertheless, odds are at least one tight end in the AFC East will trend toward top-10 status in the NFL. Offensive coordinators understand the matchup problems posed by athletic tight ends in the modern-day game.

Is there another Gronk in the division? Probably not. Even so, there are players who will be quite valuable for their respective teams at the tight end spot this year. But for now, we’ll have to shuffle through what these guys are right now.

Here’s a ranking of how the AFC East’s tight room rank, head-to-head:

Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki. Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

1. Miami Dolphins

Mike Gesicki wins this battle of best tight ends in the division, which really isn’t saying too much. He became a much larger part of the Dolphins offensive attack in 2019, seeing his target share increase from 32 in his rookie season to 89 passes last season. Gesicki ended last year with 51 receptions for 570 receiving yards and five touchdowns. Gesick is a sneaky breakout candidate this year, as he will likely see at least a similar target share as last year with Ryan Fitzpatrick returning and rookie Tua Tagovailoa needing a go-to safety valve.

Behind Gesicki, Durham Smythe and offseason trade acquisition Adam Shaheen will provide depth for the Dolphins. Smythe is not much help in the aerial attack but is a good blocker. Shaheen was acquired for a sixth-round pick. The former Chicago Bear was thought to be a sneaky second-round pick in the 2017 draft due to perceived upside. Spoiler alert: it didn’t work out, and now he will battle for snaps in South Beach.

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One key stat for Dolphins receiving corps in 2020

One key stat for Dolphins receiving corps in 2020

Exiting the Miami Dolphins’ 2019 season, the pass catching group was widely considered to be one of the better position groups on the team. Between DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki’s big breakouts and the presence of promising talent like Preston Williams, Jakeem Grant and Albert Wilson, the Dolphins had a collection of players who helped serve as the identity of the team to end last year.

Fast forward to today and that group is entirely intact — after an offseason full of wholesale improvements, the wide receiver and tight end room remained completely untouched. These guys will have the chance to run it back again in 2020. Each receiver had bright moments throughout the year, too — DeVante Parker was dominant late in the year, Preston Williams was promising early before injury cut his season short. Albert Wilson and Isaiah Ford were strong as complimentary options down the stretch as well.

So while each player will be looking for a more consistent season from start to finish, the entire group can aspire to be better in one critical area:

Drops.

The Miami Dolphins, according to Pro Football Reference, were tied for the NFL lead in drops as a team in 2019 — logging 36 dropped passes on the season. Their drop percentage was 6.0%, fourth worst in the league behind Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Dallas. Seven NFL teams dropped 20 or less balls on the season last year, highlighted by the Baltimore Ravens dropping just 14 passes for QB Lamar Jackson.

If this group is going to reach their full potential as a group, they’ll need to be more consistent in converting their opportunities into catches in the passing game. If the Dolphins receivers can be better here, we can glean a better idea of which targets are best suited to fill long-term roles. And if they can’t, well then we’ll have our answer anyway — just not one that’s a best case scenario.

Miami Dolphins 2020 training camp preview: Tight Ends

Miami Dolphins 2020 training camp preview: Tight Ends

In just over three weeks, the Miami Dolphins will open training camp for the 2020 season ahead — and with it face the prospect of building upon a promising “foundation” year in 2020. The Miami Dolphins surprised everyone last season with a 5-4 stretch to finish the season and promptly followed suit by nailing down one of the most prolific college quarterbacks in recent history, plus a slew of new faces to add to the team.

The Dolphins will hold camp this year with fan enthusiasm as high as it has been in quite some time. But amid the restrictions of this offseason due to the ongoing health crisis, can the Dolphins rise to the challenge? We’ll be taking a look at each position group for the Miami Dolphins ahead of the start of training camp and exploring which storylines are most pressing to monitor as the Dolphins look to improve in year two under Brian Flores.

Here are the Dolphins’ key storylines in training camp at the tight end position.

Can Mike Gesicki repeat or improve upon 2019?

Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports

The explosion from Mike Gesicki over the second half of the 2019 season surely allowed many Dolphins fans to let out a big sigh of relief. Gesicki was bad as a rookie in 2018, but a competent coach seems to have put him in a much better position to have success moving forward. The challenge now is that the Dolphins have remodeled their offense once again in 2020 with new play caller Chan Gailey.

Tight ends have not been a staple of his passing games in recent years, but then again Gailey hasn’t really had many good ones to work with. Gailey typically sees to it that his best targets get the majority of the looks in the passing game — so if Gesicki is the second-best target this season for Miami he should get the opportunity to follow up 2019’s success.

Or so we hope.

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What will the Dolphins’ most challenging personnel grouping look like?

What will the Dolphins’ most challenging personnel grouping look like?

There are no shortage of different ways that you can move the ball in the NFL. Some teams like to space the defense out. Other teams will look to go with heavier personnel, but more unique athletes. A good example of such a team is the Baltimore Ravens, who called upon a slew of tight ends in Hayden Hurst, Mark Andrews and Nick Boyle to provide challenging formations for opposing teams. Pairing three tight ends on the field with QB Lamar Jackson’s athletic ability and deep passing can be a difficult riddle for opposing coordinators to scheme up how to stop — as evidenced by the Ravens’ 33.2 points per game last season.

For the Dolphins, consider the former strategy the team’s recipe for success. Chan Gailey has implemented a horizontal spread offense in his last few stops, meaning he will have the Dolphins use as much real estate as possible across the width of the field to test opposing defenses.

But how will the Dolphins’ skill players fit that strategy to provide the best possible challenge to opposing defenses? Here is an early look at what Miami’s optimal offensive personnel may look like in 11-personnel (one tight end and one running back apiece on the field) — the grouping that figures to get the most of Miami’s best athletes on the field at the same time.

Quarterback (1)

Since we’re looking at the Dolphins’ offense through a utopian lens, Tua Tagovailoa would be the team’s ideal cornerstone at the quarterback position. The Dolphins’ clearly envision Tagovailoa being the future of the franchise and there’s no reason to act like that isn’t the case if we’re pretending that everything is a “best case scenario”. Ryan Fitzpatrick may be experienced in this offense, but Tagovailoa is the future and his RPO decision making at Alabama was a huge catalyst for his success.

Running back (1)

With the Dolphins looking to stress defenses and strain them with space, getting a player capable of hammering a light box is a must — which is why Jordan Howard is the ideal back for Miami’s 11 personnel. With three receivers and a tight end stretched across as much real estate as possible, opposing defenses must decide whether they want to skimp on getting adequate coverage and leverage on the boundary or if they want to maintain their extra-man advantage in the box. Any time the Dolphins find an equal number of blockers and defenders in the box, it is time to run the football.

Tight end (1)

Let’s not make this harder than it has to be, right? Mike Gesicki is the answer here. Gesicki can be flexed into the slot to the open side of the field and provide Miami with a seam-buster on play action passing and a big enough body to rub routes off in the shorter areas of the field. Part of Gesicki’s transition to Gailey’s offense will be trying to find ways for him to win in the quick game — but just ask the Patriots whether or not Gesicki can win quickly over the middle. His game-winning touchdown catch in Week 17 against Patrick Chung in coverage was a quick slant from inside the 5.

Wide receivers (3)

DeVante Parker is a lock for one of the three spots on the field in 11 personnel — and every other personnel grouping that isn’t for short yardage purposes. You can count Preston Williams a safe bet as well when he’s healthy. That duo gives Miami three receiving targets with size between Parker (6-foot-3), Williams (6-foot-5) and Gesicki (6-foot-6) on the field at the same time and plenty of physicality. If the team is looking for a little bit of juice or quickness, they’ll have three options between Jakeem Grant, Albert Wilson and a sleeper in Gary Jennings Jr. — who played in a spread offense in college with West Virginia and was a 4th-round pick in 2019.

Given Miami’s persistence in hanging onto Albert Wilson despite an ugly contract situation at the beginning of the offseason, we’ll lean into him being the third option. Wilson has the run after catch prowess (when healthy) to bring a different dynamic to the offense versus what the size targets can provide and Miami will need a little versatility to create some big catch and run opportunities with Tagovailoa’s accuracy.

Who will lead the Miami Dolphins in receptions in 2020?

Who will lead the Miami Dolphins in receptions in 2020?

The Miami Dolphins’ 2020 season figures to be a whole lot more fun than the 2019 year — even if the team doesn’t rack up wins at an exponentially faster rate than last year’s team did. The Dolphins battled the narrative last season that the team was “tanking” — and for a while it appeared as though perhaps general manager Chris Grier had gone too far in tearing down the roster. There’s little question of Grier’s intent these days — the Dolphins were much more aggressive in adding talent and took advantage of the team’s embarrassment of riches in the NFL Draft to add eleven new players into the fray.

Each unit for the Miami Dolphins figures to be, at the very least, equal to what they were last year. No position group can be pointed to as getting worse, as Miami didn’t lose significant free agents and retooled several key positions with young talent.

One area of the Dolphins’ roster that “treaded water” this offseason was the pass catching group. The Dolphins did add new running backs to the stable, but neither Jordan Howard or Matt Breida figures to be that big of a staple in the passing game to challenge for leading the team as a receiver. So who among the Dolphins actually does make sense as a viable candidate to lead the team in catches?

WR Albert Wilson

The biggest barrier for Wilson will be his durability — Wilson has logged just one season with all 16 games played (2016 with the Chiefs). The receiver did set a career high in receptions this past season in Miami (43) despite missing three games and battling the lingering aftereffects of a hip injury suffered in 2018.

If Wilson can play all season, he’ll have a leg up over Preston Williams as a candidate in the passing game — given that Williams is recovering from a 2019 knee injury and may or may not be back to full strength himself to open the season.

But with a career high of 43 receptions, it is difficult to build a significant case for Wilson to lead the team — no matter who the quarterback is.

Bold prediction: 40 receptions (4th on team)

TE Mike Gesicki

Gesicki logged 51 receptions in 2019 and figures to be a significant contender for this title if Ryan Fitzpatrick holds down the starting job for most of the season. Fitzpatrick found great chemistry with Gesicki by the end of the season and continuity on that front will build plenty of opportunities for Gesicki to pull in passes in bunches. But the biggest barrier for Gesicki having a big year is that Chan Gailey’s offense typically hasn’t yielded big numbers for tight ends.

Tony Gonzalez logged 96 receptions for 1,058 yards and 10 scores in Gailey’s 2008 offense in Kansas City — but we shouldn’t be ready to put Gesicki into that company just yet.

Bold prediction: 62 receptions (2nd on team)

WR DeVante Parker

While Gailey’s offenses haven’t been kind to tight ends historically, they have been kind to No. 1 receivers. Parker has officially arrived on that front — and so long as he stays healthy in 2020, he figures to see plenty of of volume. As a point of reference, Dwayne Bowe logged 86 receptions on 157 targets under Gailey’s watch in 2008 with the Chiefs.

Stevie Johnson logged 82, 76 and 79 receptions in three years as the Bills’ leading receiver under Gailey on 141, 134 and 148 targets respectively from 2010-2012.

Brandon Marshall logged 109 receptions on 173 targets in 2015 in New York with Gailey, too.

Parker had 128 targets last season — which means he’s likely facing a bigger slice of the pie in 2020.

Bold prediction: 85 receptions (team leader)

Dawson Knox snubbed in list of ‘breakout candidates in fantasy football

The Athletic does not see Dawson Knox as a breakout candidate. This could be a problem.

The Athletic explored fantasy breakout candidates at each of the offensive skill positions this week. The most recent piece in his series focused on tight ends. 

The players, mostly young with high upside, have a chance at exploding on the scene next year. The Athletic mentions the Bears’ Cole Kmet, Dolphins’ Mike Gesicki, Jets’ Chris Herndon, Vikings’ Irv Smith, Broncos’ Noah Fant, Panthers’ Ian Thomas, Cowboys’ Blake Jerwin, Lions’ TJ Hockenson, and Titans’ Jonnu Smith as a few of the possible breakout players at the position. 

Bills fans will notice that one name is glaringly absent. 

Buffalo’s second-year tight end Dawson Knox did not even earn a mention in this article. Not even an honorable mention. 

How could this be? 

Let’s explore how Knox might have been overlooked by The Athletic for several reasons. The Bills offense, while it looks to be more explosive this season, is still one that leans toward a conservative philosophy (see: establish-the-run as a part of an offensive gameplan). The team is still searching for consistency out of its passing game. 

Knox might be the fourth-best option in the aerial game. The newly acquired Stefon Diggs, along with incumbents John Brown and Cole Beasley, will likely see more targets than Knox next season. In addition, Devin Singletary might see more check-down passes this year, as he enters the season as the top running back for Buffalo this year. Singletary caught one more pass than his fellow rookie counterpart last year while receiving nine fewer targets than Knox. 

However, The Athletic should have given Knox some love, at least as a contender with a chance to breakout. Knox did his learning on the fly last year. He wasn’t supposed to command the snaps that he did last year. Ultimately, Knox was thrust into the role after free-agent signee Tyler Kroft was injured early in the offseason. Knox is relatively new to the position, moving to tight end in college. He was a quarterback before that. Thus, he performed admirably while being pushed into the starting lineup. With a year of learning under him, it’s anticipating that the Mississippi product can make a major step forward. 

While there are concerns with a finite number of targets in this offense, Knox may actually see more space in the middle of the field with more talent out wide. Look for Knox to garner one-on-one matchups down the seam, which could lead to big plays. Beasley will command the underneath area, while Knox can be a part of a trio (with Brown and Diggs) that stretches the field vertically. 

Knox showed his athleticism on multiple occasions as a rookie, making spectacular catches along with bulldozing players to gain yards after the catch. It can’t be ignored that the hands were a bit of an issue last year, but the hope is that experience will help these concerns diminish. 

In fact, this makes it seem like leaving Knox off the list is even more quizzical. There’s a shot that he can make a major leap into the top-10 of the fantasy rankings for tight ends. It’s the best-case scenario. Nevertheless, not mentioning him as a breakout candidate feels like an oversight at this point in the offseason. 

 

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