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No. 16 Michigan State heads back on the road this Saturday in Ann Arbor (NOON, FOX) looking to avoid losing their third straight game in conference play. MSU has beaten Michigan four straight times and will need to make it five if they want to keep hopes of winning the Big Ten alive. For Michigan, a win against a ranked opponent would be huge for their NCAA Tournament hopes, as UofM has gone 3-9 in their last nine conference games and sit in 12th place in the nation’s toughest conference.

Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up from a statistical standpoint and where edges can perhaps be gleaned.

Advanced stats and ranks courtesy kenpom.com.

Overview

Michigan State: 16-7 overall, 8-4 Big Ten

-No. 9 in adjusted efficiency

-No. 16 in adjusted offense

-No. 19 in adjusted defense

-No. 104 in adjusted tempo

Michigan: 13-9 overall, 4-7 Big Ten

-No. 28 in adjusted efficiency

-No. 34 in adjusted offense

-No. 35 in adjusted defense

-No. 172 in adjusted tempo

As mentioned in the intro, Michigan has been spiraling in Big Ten play. The injury to wing Isaiah Livers has coincided with the struggles as Livers’ shooting was so important to the Michigan offense. Livers returned for a spell against Illinois two weeks ago before getting injured again. His status for this one is up in the air and certainly looms large. Also noteworthy is what is going on with Zavier Simpson right now. The senior point guard was suspended for one game last week for a violation of team rules. However, news broke on Thursday that Simpson was suspended for crashing a car registered to UofM Athletic Director Warde Manuel into a light pole just after 3:00 in the morning on January 26. Simpson also gave police a fake name and lied to them about the crash. It’s certainly a strange situation and UofM and Simpson are very fortunate to be playing in front of a friendly home crowd in this one. Michigan is desperately in need of a big win, both in the rivalry and for their season. They’ve plummeted from a potential top seed in the NCAA Tournament to fighting to stay on the bubble. I expect their effort to be off the charts in this one.

Let’s dive into some specifics.

A note: Four factors is something you will see in these posts a lot. They are four statistical categories that heavily dictate good basketball vs. bad basketball. They are: effective field goal %, turnover %, offensive rebounding %, free throw rate (FTA/FGA). If a team is good at these four things, they are good at basketball.

When Michigan State has the ball

Michigan State Offense four factors: No. 59 in eFG% (effective field goal), No. 116 in turnover %, No. 30 in Oreb%, No. 191 in free throw rate

Michigan defense four factors: No. 76 eFG% against, No. 318 in turnover %, No. 108 in Oreb%, No. 47 in FTR

The two biggest stories here are Michigan State’s inability to protect the ball and get to the free throw line. MSU’s turnover percentage and free throw rates have plummeted in the last month and that’s the biggest reason the offense has sputtered. Cassius Winston’s free throw rate is down a full 20 percentage points when comparing his conference games this season to last. That is an insane drop. I’m not sure if he’s just not getting calls this year, or what the case is. But that has been killing MSU. And the turnovers have been brutal in nearly every game. Aaron Henry is turning is over on a quarter of his possessions. That has to get cleaned up. Fortunately, Michigan doesn’t force many turnovers, but that doesn’t really help, because many of MSU’s turnovers are unforced. The Wolverines struggle on the defensive glass and that’s probably Michigan State’s biggest advantage. Xavier Tillman and other MSU bigs are going to need to have a field day with offensive rebounds, especially if MSU is sloppy with the ball.

When Michigan has the ball

Michigan offensive four factors: No. 38 in eFG%, No. 30 in turnover %, No. 251 in Oreb%, No. 327 in FTR

Michigan State defensive four factors: No. 4 in eFG% against, No. 324 in turnover %, No. 53 in Oreb% against, No. 84 in FTR

Michigan State has really improved on defense the last month. They’re one of the best teams in the country at making their opponents miss and have done a really good job on the defensive glass. Michigan doesn’t have much offensive rebounding outside of Jon Teske and Brandon Johns, so it’ll be important to do a good job boxing them out and making sure Michigan only gets one shot each possession. The Wolverines aren’t going to turn it over and MSU notoriously doesn’t force turnovers. Statistically it doesn’t look like Michigan will be getting to the free throw line much in this game, but that can always be fickle in one-game sample sizes. Flatly, Michigan is going to have to hit some shots to win. What a piece of analysis that is, right? Obviously they’ll have to hit shots, but what I really mean is they’re going to have to shoot it really well. They won’t be manufacturing ugly points on the glass or at the line, so they’re going to have to hit some threes. They’ll have to be efficient in the post as well, running through Teske. Unfortunately for them, MSU has one of the best post defenders in the country in Tillman.

Other key numbers

Even if Livers sits, Michigan is going to hoist a lot of threes. 40% of their shots this season have come from beyond the arc and that would be even higher if Livers hadn’t missed half of the season. Eli Brooks is the most trigger happy of the group and is shooting 38% on the year. He took ten threes against Nebraska three games ago.

As a team Michigan is 110th in the country from deep, shooting 34.5%. They’ve got a couple of solid shooters, a couple of bad shooters and a bunch of guys who oscillate in-between. Michigan needs some of those oscillators to have good shooting days.

Michigan State is the best team in the country at assists per field goal made and Michigan is the fourth-best team in the country at preventing assists per field goal made. Last time out Michigan State assisted on 57% of their field goals, which is 11% lower than their season average. That’s because Cassius Winston scored a career high 32 points and MSU had only seven non-Cassius assists.

Jon Teske and Brandon Johns rank 358th and 375th nationally in offensive rebound rate, respectively. Neither of them are elite on the offensive glass, but both are capable. Teske is the only Wolverine nationally ranked on the defensive glass at 203rd.

Zavier Simpson’s play making has been great this year. He ranks 4th in assist rate in the country. Slowing him down in the pick and roll will be especially important as he can break defenses down with a screen and get his teammates quality looks.

Conclusion

Michigan State is the better team, but Michigan is in a more advantageous spot. The Wolverines are more desperate and are playing a hated rival at home. This is the type of game where MSU cannot afford a slow start. If there’s something that can focus the Spartans off the tip, maybe its playing against their rivals. If Michigan makes an inordinate amount of threes and doesn’t get killed on the glass, they probably win this game. If MSU takes care of the ball and wins the rebounding battle, they probably win. It’s a pretty straightforward path to victory for both teams. KenPom has this as a 72-71 victory for Michigan State in a 50/50 tossup.

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