[jwplayer EBPdXA3C-PROpJzTY]

No. 26 Michigan State heads to Happy Valley to take on No. 20 Penn State (7:00 ESN), looking to seek another round of revenge on a conference foe. The Nittany Lions beat the Spartans 75-70 back on February 4 at the Breslin Center. A Penn State win would mark the first time in program history that the men’s basketball team won multiple regular season games against Michigan State. The Spartans need a win to keep their hopes of a regular season Big Ten title alive.

Let’s take a look at how these two teams match up from a statistical standpoint and where edges can perhaps be gleaned.

Advanced stats and ranks courtesy kenpom.com.

Overview

Michigan State: 20-9 overall, 12-6 Big Ten

-No. 7 in adjusted efficiency

-No. 15 in adjusted offense

-No. 12 in adjusted defense

-No. 108 in adjusted tempo

Penn State: 21-8 overall, 11-7 Big Ten

-No. 20 in adjusted efficiency

-No. 42 in adjusted offense

-No. 14 in adjusted defense

-No. 48 in adjusted tempo

These two teams are headed in exact opposite directions compared to the last time they played. Back on February 4 Penn State was in the middle of an eight-game winning streak while MSU was in the process of losing three straight games and four of five overall. Now the Spartans are coming off the best 60 minutes of basketball they’ve played all season and Penn State has lost three of four and were very lucky to beat Rutgers at home to avoid a four-game losing streak. The Nittany Lions are solidly in the tournament, but in a couple of weeks have gone from a top-ten team pushing for a high NCAA Tournament seed to one trying to stymie the bleeding with hopes of rounding into form for a March run.

Myreon Jones, who scored 20 points and when 6-8 from three the first time these two matched up, recently returned from a prolonged absence due to an undisclosed illness, although he turned in his worst game of the season against Iowa. His ability to round back into form looms large in this one as he is one of the best long-distance shooters in the Big Ten.

Let’s dive into some specifics of how these teams match up.

A note: Four factors is something you will see in these posts a lot. They are four statistical categories that heavily dictate good basketball vs. bad basketball. They are: effective field goal %, turnover %, offensive rebounding %, free throw rate (FTA/FGA). If a team is good at these four things, they are good at basketball.

When Michigan State has the ball

Michigan State Offense four factors: No. 58 in eFG% (effective field goal), No. 131 in turnover %, No. 43 in Oreb%, No. 213 in free throw rate

Penn State defense four factors: No. 30 eFG% against, No. 160 in turnover %, No. 158 in Oreb%, No. 176 in FTR

Michigan State’s shooting numbers continue to rise and that is very important as their free throw rate continues to fall. Michigan State just isn’t getting to the line enough and it has been a long, steady decline in that department. Maybe they are able to get some extra trips against Penn State, as the Nits are middle-of-the-pack in defensive free throw rate. Penn State is very good at limiting effective field goal percentage and profile very similarly to Maryland in their field goal defense. MSU’s shooters are again going to have to do a good job knocking down open shots when the opportunities arise. Penn State is also a middling defensive rebounding team, so look for the Spartans to take advantage of that matchup. They are absolutely going to need some second-chance points in this one.

When Penn State has the ball

Penn State offensive four factors: No. 141 in eFG%, No. 32 in turnover %, No. 131 in Oreb%, No. 211 in FTR

Michigan State defensive four factors: No. 3 in eFG% against, No. 322 in turnover %, No. 88 in Oreb% against, No. 99 in FTR

Penn State doesn’t have a particularly good offense, but they aren’t going to beat themselves. Factor in MSU’s inability to turn teams over and you can bet that PSU is going to get plenty of shots in this one. Fortunately for MSU, the Nittany Lions don’t do a great job of actually making shots, as evidence by their 141st-ranked effective field goal percentage. MSU has struggled at times on the glass and they cannot let a mediocre offensive rebounding team like Penn State win in that category. Similar to the Maryland game, there are going to be a lot of missed shots from Penn State. MSU has to do a great job on the defensive glass and ensure that Penn State has to earn every bucket they get.

Other key numbers

Penn State defends the heck out of the three-point line. They rank 48th in three point rate, with opponents only taking 32.7% of their shots against them from deep. Translation: Penn State makes it hard to get open looks from three. Now, their three point percentage against is one of the weaker parts of their defense. They rank 108th in the country in that category.

Penn State ranks 195th in the country in three point percentage on offense, shooting a paltry 32.8% from deep as a team. Two of their most three-happy shooters are Curtis Jones and Myles Dread. Jones is shooting 28% on 114 total attempts and Dread has shot 31% on 185 attempts. With a lot of focus on stopping Lamar Stevens down low, MSU could opt to let those two let it fly from deep.

Speaking of Stevens, he is a case of counting stats not telling the whole story.  Stevens is averaging 17.7 points and 7 rebounds per game this year. Sounds good, right? Well, not entirely. Despite taking 30% of Penn State’s shots when he is on the floor (that’s a lot) Stevens’ eFG% is a brutal 47.1%. If Lamar Stevens was a team, he would rank 284th in the country in eFG%. He’s a total volume scorer. Now, he can get to the free throw line a bit, and that helps his efficiency, but him scoring 24 points on 28 shots is a perfectly plausible stat line and a total win for the MSU defense.

Stevens is also the only player on Penn State that plays more than 65% of the teams’ minutes. For comparison, three players on MSU are above that number. It may not seem like a crazy stat, but Stevens is the only guy for Penn State that is on the floor for 30+ minutes every game. It’s March 3rd and that means the games mean more and experience can rule the day. MSU is overwhelmingly the more experienced team (and coaching staff) when it comes to playing big minutes in big games.

Conclusion

I try to not buy too into recent form, but its really hard to ignore in this game. Michigan State is a better team than Penn State and have been playing much better. The Spartans have played their last three halves of basketball like the preseason No. 1 team we all thought they would be and Penn State has been looking like a team fighting on the NCAA Tournament bubble. If this one were at the Breslin Center I wouldn’t feel great about Penn State sticking around, but it’s always better to be at home in big spots and a win here would be MASSIVE for Penn State. If MSU plays like they have been the last week, they’ll win. If they look like the up-and-down team they’ve been most of the season, PSU will have a great chance at winning. KenPom has this game as a 72-71 win for Penn State, a 53% chance of victory.

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1363]