March Madness: Michigan State vs. Duke odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Michigan State vs. Duke odds and lines, with college basketball expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 7-seed Michigan State Spartans (23-12) meet the No. 2-seed Duke Blue Devils (29-6) Sunday at 5:15 p.m. ET. The West Region second-round game of the NCAA Championship Tournament will be held at Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, S.C. Below, we look at the Michigan State vs. Duke odds and lines, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Michigan State clocked a 74-73 victory over Davidson in its opening-round game. MSU trailed by 8 points, surged ahead with a 16-3 run, and then nearly faltered down the stretch during a wild final eight minutes. The Spartans are 4-1 across their last five games and are 4-1 in their last five games decided by two possessions or fewer.

Duke — the 10th-ranked team in NCAA-I — advanced to round 2 with a 78-61 triumph over Cal State Fullerton Thursday. All five DU starters tallied double-figure scoring totals in what was a bounce-back after a loss to No. 24 Virginia Tech in the ACC Tournament. The Devils are looking to get to the Sweet Sixteen for the ninth time since 2008.

Rankings courtesy of the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Michigan State vs. Duke odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:13 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Michigan State +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Duke -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Michigan State +6.5 (-115) | Duke -6.5 (-107)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 144.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Michigan State vs. Duke odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Duke 74, Michigan State 66

Money line

PASS.

Against the spread

Michigan State just has not been consistent enough over a long enough stretch to discount a double-digit loss in this spot. Duke can leverage impressive turnover avoidance and a strong 2-point game to get this one in hand by nearly three possessions. The margin here is tight, but consider a partial-unit play on DUKE -6.5 (-107).

Over/Under

Again, the margin to work with is slim: a dialed-down UNDER 144.5 (-107) is the play in this battle between two foes who play at a moderate pace.

Until recently both teams had trends of being in slightly undercooked games against quality opponents.

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