The Michigan State Spartans (5-6, 3-5 Big Ten) visit a familiar foe in the Penn State Nittany Lions (9-2, 6-2) Saturday. Kickoff from Beaver Stadium is set for 4 p.m. ET (FS1). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Michigan State vs. Penn State odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Spartans are coming off a tough 39-31 double-OT home loss last week against the Indiana Hoosiers. The Spartans, who were 12.5-point favorites, dominated all of the major stat categories, leading in total yards (540 to 288) — including holding IU to 31 passing yards — 1st downs (29-11) and time of possession (36:33-23:27). Michigan State’s problem was its inability to carry any 1st-half momentum and scoring into the 2nd half. MSU led 24-7 at the half but only scored a TD in the 3rd quarter and went scoreless in the 4th quarter and both overtimes.
The Nittany Lions are riding a 3-game win streak where all in blowout fashion, including last week’s 55-10 rout at Rutgers as 19.5-point favorites. It was a game that many would consider perfect with all components of the team scoring. The offense tallied 4 TDs and 2 field goals, the defense forced 3 turnovers and scored 2 TDs, and special teams returned a kickoff 100 yards for the Lions’ 1st points of the game.
Penn State is No. 10 in the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports. The Lions are 11th in the College Football Playoff Rankings.
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Michigan State at Penn State odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:57 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Michigan State +700 (bet $100 to win $700) | Penn State -1200 (bet $1,200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Michigan State +19.5 (-109) | Penn State -19.5 (-111)
- Over/Under (O/U): 53 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Michigan State at Penn State picks and predictions
Prediction
Penn State 35, Michigan State 28
Moneyline
AVOID.
Penn State (-1200) should win this game, but the moneyline price is far too risky. The moneyline is a reaction to the hot streak that the Nittany Lions are on coupled with their ranking and the disappointing season of the Spartans.
Against the spread
MICHIGAN STATE +19.5 (-109) is the BEST BET for this game.
Michigan State has historically given Penn State problems. Even with the Nittany Lions clearly being the better team, don’t expect the Spartans to go down easy.
Penn State is still fighting for a spot in an New Year’s 6 Bowl game, and a win here would certainly help the cause, but the Nittany Lions have proven to not show up in big games. Penn State will pull out the win Saturday, but don’t be surprised when this game is closer than expected.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 53 (-110).
Penn State averages 35.9 points per game and Michigan State averages 25.2 PPG. Based on averages alone, the Over should cash. With a Penn State offense capable of scoring in the air and on the ground, and a Michigan State defense allowing more points per game (26.7) than it scores, feel comfortable betting the Over in this one.
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