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The Michigan State Spartans (4-3, 2-2 Big Ten) make the short trip to Ann Arbor to square off against the Michigan Wolverines (4-3, 2-2) in Saturday Big Ten action. Kickoff at Michigan Stadium will be at 7:30 p.m. ET (Big Ten Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around Michigan State vs. Michigan odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
The Spartans snapped a 3-game skid with a surprising win in their last game. Last Saturday, 6.5-point-underdog Michigan State defeated Iowa 30-22. K Jonathan Kim banged home a program-record 6 field goals in a contest the Spartans controlled from tip to tail.
The Wolverines, ranked No. 22 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, logged a flat 21-7 loss last Saturday. Michigan allowed just 267 total yards but was undone by a minus-3 in turnovers. UM yielded 4 scoring drives against UI; all 4 were under 55 yards.
– US LBM Coaches Poll: Conducted by the American Football Coaches Association and USA TODAY Sports
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Michigan State at Michigan odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook | FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated 10:55 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Michigan State +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Michigan -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Michigan State +4 (-110) | Michigan -4 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 38.5 (O: -120 | U: -110)
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Michigan State at Michigan picks and predictions
Prediction
Michigan 28, Michigan State 16
Moneyline
Better leverage can be found against the number. PASS.
Against the spread
UM has covered the spread each of the last 2 years and is 4-2 ATS against MSU since 2018.
The Michigan offense has certainly been a near-weekly misfire this season. The Wolverines have a revolving door at quarterback and have been held under 325 total yards in all-but-1 game this so far. But for a team with a talent edge in this match-up, have expectations bottomed out with room for profit coming back up?
The Michigan defense can squelch lesser foes. MSU can be quite loose with the football, and the game flow in this one has the potential for a lot of field-position tilt toward the Wolverines.
The Spartans will likely find tough sledding in early downs, and that puts the Michigan defense in advantageous late-down situations where it has thrived.
Look for slight improvement in the Wolverines passing game (almost any level of success would be something to build on) and for some flipped-field effect to loom as a 2-score separator. A significant red-zone edge for UM confirms that sort of lean.
TAKE MICHIGAN -4 (-110).
Over/Under
The effect of turnovers and short-field scores figure to outweigh low expectations of what these rivals can crank out on the Michigan Stadium scoreboard.
Again, FanDuel Sportsbook offers a better tag: BACK THE OVER 38.5 (-114).
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